ATB: Missed slam at German Open Pairs

[xxhong]

All you need is something like CAKxxx to have an excellent 6C and a shot at 7C. So 3S then pass 3NT is clearly wrong.

 

[hv=pc=n&w=shakj5daqj96c9842&e=skq9hqt7dtcakt653&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=p1d(Unbalanced)p2c(Natural GF)p3s(Splinter)p3nppp]266|200[/hv]

 

A spade was lead to the ace and 3NT+3 brought in 32.5%. Who should have done more?

[kenrexford]

All you need is something like CAKxxx to have an excellent 6C and a shot at 7C. So 3S then pass 3NT is clearly wrong.

 

How is that excellent? Odds favor an immediate club loser, and then you still have work to do in the side suits.

[xxhong]

Let me give you a very minimum hand: KQx xx xxx AKxxx, I want to play in 6C.

You need either C 2-2 or C3-1 but DK on. That's good enough for a small slam.

How is that excellent? Odds favor an immediate club loser, and then you still have work to do in the side suits.

[kenrexford]

Let me give you a very minimum hand: KQx xx xxx AKxxx, I want to play in 6C.

You need either C 2-2 or C3-1 but DK on. That's good enough for a small slam.

 

OK, let me give you some hands as well.

 

1. KQxx-QJx-x-AJxxx

2. AJx-QJx-x-AJxxxx

3. Axx-QJx-xx-AQxxx

 

Both of these have serious risks at 4NT if Responder bows out after Opener enters the four-level. Adding in doubletons or tripletons in diamonds does nothing to increase the chance of 4NT making. Changing some shape does little to help.

 

On contrast, what does East need?

 

West's action of bidding 3♠ normally would show a minimum of at least 1354 shape, because with 1444 the apparent systemic opening is 1♣ ♣(per the original post). Hence, a minimum of a 10-card club fit is known. With the Ace and King, the club suit can already be deemed a relative favorite for a no-loser suit.

 

West's action of not simply raising clubs (which SHOULD should a minimum of 1354 shape as well, IMO) indicates a non-minimum, as that call already (IMO) should show a stiff major card, which can be shown via a 3♦ "relay." Opener surely is not calling his stiff Ace a splinter hand, so we can rule out the idea of that holding.

 

Opener has made a power splinter. He lacks any key cards in clubs. Will he make a power splinter with only one key card? Seems unlikely. Thus, he almost assuredly for this sequence has at least two Aces or at least one Ace and void in spades. Plus, he also should have control in the other suit. So, the worst comnceivable hand would have a void, heart Ace (but not the King), and not the diamond Ace (rather, the King at the top). With no honors in spades, and a power raise, what hand can he have where East cannot seee slam?

 

You will undoubtedly be able to show possible hands for Opener where 6♣ is odds-off. Fine. The question, though, is WHO ENTERS THE FOUR-LEVEL? East or West? In my opinion, this sequence calls for East taking the risk, because West already stated power and because East has the last decision before 3NT.

 

Think of it this way. Imagine distinct slam interests: low, mild, sound, strong, and assured.

 

Opener bids 3♣ with a stiff and low to mild slam values. If Responder can make slam opposite this, he goes forth. If he needs mild, he ventures past 3NT.

Opener bids 3♠ with sound and strong interest. If Responder can make slam opposite this, he goes forth. If he needs mild, he ventures past 3NT.

Opener blasts out with assured interest.

 

If you stack too much onto 3♠, you end up with 3♣ as low but 3♠ as mild to strong. Responder bumps if he needs sound, but Opener bumps with strong. The result is entering the four-level too freqently, IMO.

[MrAce]

If it doesn't add up "as usual", why do you bother to reply?

 

Good point.

[Lurpoa]

 

 

Good point.

 

Two good points :rolleyes:

♥♥

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

 

I looked at the auction, I looked at the hands, ... wtp?

 

Sry - the splinter is fine, depending on your agreement set, bidding

3C instead of 3S may well deny a splinter, showing a 5422 hand.

Bidding 3NT with KQ9 looks also obvious as well, and so does pass,

... after all opener did describe his hand pretty well, ok we have a

void instead of a single..

 

6C is fine / even cold, so what.

 

Playing IMPs, I think moving on is sensible, maybe even matadory, but

playing MP - if you move on, you basically commit yourself to 6C.

 

If you want to find this slam playing MP, you have to add science to

your agreement set, hopefully this science allowes you to stop in 3NT

as well.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe