Phil Posted October 1, 2011 Report Share Posted October 1, 2011 Partner opens a 15-17 1N with occasional upgrades. Can someone provide a sim that shows the frequency of 6♦ and 6N making across from ♠ ATx ♥ xx ♦ AQTxx ♣ KQx: 1. 14 with a good five card or six card suit. 2. 15 3. 15 with a good five card or six card suit4. 16 5. 16 43336. 177. 17 4333 I know its a lot of work. Thanks in advance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted October 1, 2011 Report Share Posted October 1, 2011 Define "good" 5-card suit. Does the six-card suit need to be good? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanoi5 Posted October 1, 2011 Report Share Posted October 1, 2011 And, is it one simulation with everything or 7 different simulations? If you want 7 then, 16 4333 and 16 are different or can 16 include some 4333's? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 1, 2011 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2011 1. I would call a good suit 2 of the top 3 or AJT/KJT. 2. Yes, 16 4333 is different than 16. I should have said "non 4333, 16 (or 17)" I would like the relative % of 6♦6N with each parameter, so 14 different sims I suppose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanoi5 Posted October 1, 2011 Report Share Posted October 1, 2011 Well I made one including all 7 and got 6♦ makes 64% of the time, while 6NT 66%. It's harder to find the killing lead against NT than against Diamonds I suppose a good five or six card suit in the case of 14 or 15 HCP's includes hands with 5-card Majors (I suppose no 6-card Majors). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanoi5 Posted October 1, 2011 Report Share Posted October 1, 2011 1. 14 with a good 5-card/6-card minor = 6♦=35% 6NT=23% 14 with a good 5-card/6-card minor or a good 5-card Major = 6♦=26% 6NT=21%2. 15 Balanced but not a 5-card suit = 6♦=58% 6NT=60%3. 15 with a good 5-card/6-card minor = 6♦=54% 6NT=45% 15 with a good 5-card/6-card minor or a good 5-card Major = 6♦=57% 6NT=58%4. 16 4333 = 6♦=75% 6NT=76%5. 16 No 4333 = 6♦=71% 6NT=73%6. 17 No 4333 = 6♦=89% 6NT=92%7. 17 4333 = 6♦=88% 6NT=91% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted October 2, 2011 Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 Eash simulation based on 1000 hands double dummy Allowed distributions 4333443253325422 but not 45 or 54 Majors6322 aix card minor For a good five-card suit - 2 of the top three honours or AJTxx or KJTxx or better Contract Freq HCP Restrictions 6D 531 15 any 6NT 532 15 any 6D 718 16 any 6NT 758 16 any 6D 868 17 any 6NT 909 17 any 6D 453 15 4333 6NT 442 15 4333 6D 689 16 4333 6NT 712 16 4333 6D 866 17 4333 6NT 893 17 4333 6D 544 15 no 4333 6NT 525 15 no 4333 6D 724 16 no 4333 6NT 787 16 no 4333 6D 842 17 no 4333 6NT 917 17 no 4333 6D 408 14 good 5-card 6NT 351 14 good 5-card 6D 532 15 good 5-card 6NT 553 15 good 5-card Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 2, 2011 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 Thanks for the help everyone. I held this hand yesterday and invited with 4N. Partner accepted with QJx AKJTx KJx xx. Not the worst slam you'll ever bid but the hands don't mesh well and you'd rather not be there. I think if my invite is correct based on the sims that his acceptance is also correct with a 15 and a good 5 card suit. 6♦ seems better on these cards. I also find it interesting that in very few of the cases that 6♦ is rarely better overall than 6N. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted October 2, 2011 Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 I also find it interesting that in very few of the cases that 6♦ is rarely better overall than 6N. Maybe we should check how often 6♦ makes and 6NT does not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanoi5 Posted October 2, 2011 Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 The thing with 6♦ is that it should be better with a fit and some balanced hands don't promise a fit. I only made 100 hands per case so maybe that's where the difference comes from. I didn't use 5422, maybe that's why diamonds were better in my simulations. I used AT2 43 AQT65 KQ7 as the original hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mich-b Posted October 2, 2011 Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 Thanks for the help everyone. I held this hand yesterday and invited with 4N. Partner accepted with QJx AKJTx KJx xx. Not the worst slam you'll ever bid but the hands don't mesh well and you'd rather not be there. I think if my invite is correct based on the sims that his acceptance is also correct with a 15 and a good 5 card suit. 6♦ seems better on these cards. I also find it interesting that in very few of the cases that 6♦ is rarely better overall than 6N. Once he decided to accept , he could bid 5♥ , over which you would bid 6♦ , which he would happily pass 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sathyab Posted October 2, 2011 Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 Once he decided to accept , he could bid 5♥ , over which you would bid 6♦ , which he would happily pass Great simulation results. It looks like, opposite an invite of 16 or upgraded 15 (for five-card suit), you get to a good slam (well over 50%) with any hard 16 or higher, but only a marginal one (slightly above 50%) with a 15 upgraded to 16 for a good 5-card suit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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