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Preempted by partner


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There should be a fifth and sixth response to Ogust: bids which say whether the opener looked at the vulnerability before opening.

 

I think he means that we expect a VUL against NV weak2 to have a good enough hand , and a good enough suit (even if "bad" in context) to provide reasonable play for 4.

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It is clear that you want to play either 4 or 3NT.

 

I don't think Ogust or any other method is going to provide you with the information that you need to make a rational choice between 4 and 3NT. Based on the opening bid and your agreement, 4 is likely to be right. Only if partner has some values in hearts (which could be as little as Tx) is 3NT likely to make as many tricks as spades. You have at least two aces to knock out which means that the opps are going to get the lead 3 times.

 

And hearts may not be the weak point on this hand. Clubs could be the weakness. How would you like to play 3NT on a club lead opposite this hand:

 

KJTxxx

T9

Axx

xx

 

If the A is on your left and the A is on your right, you are at best making 9 tricks in NT and possibly down while 4 is easy (this assumes that clubs are 4-4 or 5-3 with the 5 in the leader's hand).

 

3NT could be right. I just don't think that it is the percentage action.

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Aren't Ogust responses always "relative" to the expected strength?

They should be. But the 2-bid seems to frequently be not relative to the expected strength.

 

Modified Ogust:

 

3C=I didn't pay attention to the colors

3D=My hand is wrong on ODR because of side stuff.

3H=I have a weak 2-bid

3S=My hand is wrong od ODR because of extra offense.

 

Seriously, because of our opinions about disclipline I have advocated Ogust when not Vul, and Feature when Vul; though we haven't actually switched to that, yet.

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