2NT or 3NT

[billw55]

Because I make game often enough that I think it's +EV

 

9HCP with a 5-card suit is kind of like 10HCP anyway

I still think this is wrong.

 

It is not about how often you make game. It is about how often you make game when partner declines the invitation.

 

We are nonvul at matchpoints. The target for bidding games is right about 50% making. I do not believe that this hand is making game 50% of the time when partner declines the invitation.

[hrothgar]

 

MP is NOT about gambling on game!

Let the poor people bid 3Nt here - and bid 2NT if you want to play healthy - telling your partner exactly what you have, and let him decide. It is called bridge :-)

 

 

FWIW... Your "analysis" seems to be based on the assumption that a blunt instrument like a range ask actually provides useful information.

 

There are a fair number of NT response structures that have concluded that range information isn't all that useful compared to showing length, shortness, all sorts of other stuff. Some systems don't even let you play 2NT as a contract (concluding that trying to stop dead in 2NT is a waste of bidding space)

 

So, before you go and start moralizing about what is or is not "bridge", trying learning a bit more about the game.

[MickyB]

I still think this is wrong.

 

It is not about how often you make game. It is about how often you make game when partner declines the invitation.

 

We are nonvul at matchpoints. The target for bidding games is right about 50% making. I do not believe that this hand is making game 50% of the time when partner declines the invitation.

 

As I said before, there are advantages to bidding 3NT even on hands where partner would accept the invitation. It also reduces the chance of getting doubled when spades are lying badly for us.

[jjbrr]

I still think this is wrong.

 

It is not about how often you make game. It is about how often you make game when partner declines the invitation.

 

We are nonvul at matchpoints. The target for bidding games is right about 50% making. I do not believe that this hand is making game 50% of the time when partner declines the invitation.

 

No, it's not quite this easy. As MickyB points out, sometimes we need to avoid a double when spades are bad for us (maybe we weren't even making 2NT!), sometimes bidding confidently to game causes the opponents to lead or defend poorly, sometimes regularly putting pressure on the opponents in close spots will gain for us a lot in the future, or perhaps partner is just declaring really well that day (in which case we might get a good board regardless of what we do, but why not get a top instead of an average plus?).

 

I would guess it's close enough to "right about 50% making" that bidding 3NT is not so bad.

 

I would prefer having a 5-card minor so that we don't have to play 4♠ when we should probably be in 3NT with a 5-3 fit, but that's life.

[han]

Partner will almost always bid with 16-17 HCP and often with 15 and 3-card support.

 

I dealt 1000 hands where partner has 2 spades and 2-5 hearts, diamonds and clubs. Double dummy 3NT makes on 309 hands.

 

You can decide for yourself whether the advantages of bidding 3NT directly and partner's declarer play (or the opponents' defense) are enough to overcome these 31% double dummy odds at matchpoints.

 

As others have noted, if partner sometimes opens 1NT with 14 then the odds will be lower. For example, if I allow 14-counts with a good (3 of the top 5 honors including the ace or king) 5-card suit then the chance that 3NT is made drops to 29%.

[aguahombre]

This post no longer has meaning after Han's clarification below. Edited September 14, 2011 by aguahombre

[MickyB]

Partner will almost always bid with 16-17 HCP and often with 15 and 3-card support.

 

I dealt 1000 hands where partner has 2 spades and 2-5 hearts, diamonds and clubs. Double dummy 3NT makes on 309 hands.

 

 

You don't say how many miltons these 1000 hands had - I assume they were all 15-counts?

[han]

Sorry, yes only 15s at first, later also some 14s. I do realize that partner will sometimes pass with 3 spades and 15, but chose not to try to specify with which.

[Porreankel]

FWIW... Your "analysis" seems to be based on the assumption that a blunt instrument like a range ask actually provides useful information.

 

There are a fair number of NT response structures that have concluded that range information isn't all that useful compared to showing length, shortness, all sorts of other stuff. Some systems don't even let you play 2NT as a contract (concluding that trying to stop dead in 2NT is a waste of bidding space)

 

So, before you go and start moralizing about what is or is not "bridge", trying learning a bit more about the game.

 

Ehm..... Look at the hand posted please. I do not see any shortness, lenth or other stuff that are not already shown. I know about systems that does not allow you to play 2nt - but if yo take your time to read OP, you will see this that in this system you can.

And imho yes! - I do believe "a range ask" to be usefull in this bidding.

 

I am really not trying to maralize anything or anybody - just trying to make it clear that bidding 2NT here - tells your partner exactly what your holdings are.

[kgr]

Sorry, yes only 15s at first, later also some 14s. I do realize that partner will sometimes pass with 3 spades and 15, but chose not to try to specify with which.

Can you give an example where you pass 2NT after transfer and having 3c support. I think I'm never doing this.

After 1NT-2H-2S-2NT, something like?:

xxx

KJxx

AQx

KQxx

[jmcw]

sometimes bidding confidently to game causes the opponents to lead or defend poorly,

 

I'm not buying this argument.

It's quite possible game is on here, but whether you are in the invitational 2NT or blast 3NT camp, it will likely have minimal effect on whether the game makes.

 

I'm taking the low road because I think partner's input is important, this is a good 9 points, but not exceptional, and there are just too many layouts where game is down before we get our first trick.

[han]

Can you give an example where you pass 2NT after transfer and having 3c support. I think I'm never doing this.

After 1NT-2H-2S-2NT, something like?:

xxx

KJxx

AQx

KQxx

 

Yeah, a hand like this with 13 cards I'd pass.

[han]

I'm not buying this argument.

 

What's so strange about jjbrr's argument? If you bid 2NT and partner passes, the opponents know partner has 15 HCP. That makes defense easier. If partner bids 3NT, they know partner probably does not have 15. That also makes the defense easier.

[jmcw]

What's so strange about jjbrr's argument? If you bid 2NT and partner passes, the opponents know partner has 15 HCP. That makes defense easier. If partner bids 3NT, they know partner probably does not have 15. That also makes the defense easier.

 

What I said was I'm not buying the argument.

JJBRR asserts that by bidding confidently to 3NT may cause the defenders lead or defend poorly.

In my view, is see no reason for this.

 

The auction will sound entirely normal to me.

The auction has been uncontested.

I have no reason to suspect the auction will be any different at other tables (weak NT excepted)

I have no compelling reason to lead anything other than normally.

[VM1973]

That is an interesting point. What it does mean on this hand (to me) is that, while opener might well be 4x3, responder has asked opener whether he is min/max and whether the partner does or does not have a spade fit. If opener decides to accept the invite and bid 3NT with a flat hand including spade support, I would think he is playing Bridge from one side of the table just as much as responder would have been doing if he blasted to 3NT. Responder showed five spades as something more than a knee-jerk drill; if opener isn't going to agree spades with a flat hand, responder was wasting his effort and might as well have kept the opponents in the dark. (Those who disagree with this will hopefully do so in reasoned debate.)

 

Would he also pass 2NT with a minimum and 3-card support? Maybe responder has one of those hands where he will decide to continue to game because of the spade fit. Maybe this is one of those hands.

I disagree. The 1NT opener may well have a hand that will play better in NT than 4♠ such as:

 

♠K10x

♥Axx

♦Axx

♣Axxx

 

1. All suits stopped.

2. All tricks fast.

3. No ruffing assets.

4. ♠K will help the spade suit run.

 

There is excellent reason to believe that NT will outscore a suit contract.

[aguahombre]

I have no compelling reason to lead anything other than normally.

Depends on your definition of "normally". Some people go for safer leads vs 2N, 4NT 6NT and grands, but attacking leads vs. 3NT.

[jmcw]

Depends on your definition of "normally". Some people go for safer leads vs 2N, 4NT 6NT and grands, but attacking leads vs. 3NT.

 

Normally, means that the auction has not indicated any pressing need to deviate from whatever that lead would be.

 

Your suggestion of passivity vs agressive would not be a prime consideration to me based on whether the opponents bid 2NT or 3NT, especially at MP's. At IMPS I would certainly consider a more agressive lead if my ♠ holding suggested a favorable split for declarer. As noted previously, I do not buy the idea that 2NT vs 3NT pressures me to misdefend or lead badly, seems like a purely speculative suggestion.

 

Another point occurs to me about this problem. Perhaps 2NT is going down, I'd rather be down 1 than 2.