Defensive Play SEVENTEEN

[inquiry]

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Looks like North made a good decision to bid spades instead of hearts in response to his partner's reopening double. When the diamond QUEEN wins trick two, plan your defense.

 

Carding is UDCA[/hv]

Edited September 13, 2011 by inquiry
added the carding

[MrAce]

Carding ?

[Antrax]

South has at least 2 and probably 3 hearts, since it's unlikely he'd have doubled for takeout with a singleton heart. So I grab the ace, cash heart ace and lead a low heart for partner to ruff, partner returns a club which I ruff and I lead another heart back. If I read it correctly, we're getting two aces and three ruffs for one down. How'd I do?

[MrAce]

South has at least 2 and probably 3 hearts, since it's unlikely he'd have doubled for takeout with a singleton heart. So I grab the ace, cash heart ace and lead a low heart for partner to ruff, partner returns a club which I ruff and I lead another heart back. If I read it correctly, we're getting two aces and three ruffs for one down. How'd I do?

 

I think you did fine, unless i am missing something, weldone.

[bd71]

I'm worried we might be missing something by leading the A♥ first.

 

I have a very hard time imagining South with less than 3♥ for his re-opening double, so we can give partner a ruff right away. At the same time, I am having a somewhat difficult time constructing a hand where leading the ♥A first hurts.

 

The only thing I'm coming up with is that if South is 5341, he will over-ruff me on the 2nd ♣, and by leading the ♥A first I have given him a way to discard his loser ♦ (assuming he started with AKxx♦). In this case, why didn't he try to ruff a low ♦ in dummy? Maybe he's worried about partner ruffing in on the 3rd trick, forcing the J♠...or even ruffing on the 2nd ♦ trick.

 

So...do I think it more likely that:

 

1. South made his re-opening X with only 2♥, OR

2. That he is 5341 and decided against ruffing his ♦ loser in dummy. In this scenario, partner also only bid 3♣ with 8 of them...perhaps a bit strange but we are vul.

 

While 2 seems unlikely, I think 1 is LESS likely. So I'm leading a low ♥ right away and hoping we win ♠A, ♠ruff, 2♥, and a ♦.

[MrAce]

I'm worried we might be missing something by leading the A♥ first.

 

I have a very hard time imagining South with less than 3♥ for his re-opening double, so we can give partner a ruff right away. At the same time, I am having a somewhat difficult time constructing a hand where leading the ♥A first hurts.

 

The only thing I'm coming up with is that if South is 5341, he will over-ruff me on the 2nd ♣, and by leading the ♥A first I have given him a way to discard his loser ♦ (assuming he started with AKxx♦). In this case, why didn't he try to ruff a low ♦ in dummy? Maybe he's worried about partner ruffing in on the 3rd trick, forcing the J♠...or even ruffing on the 2nd ♦ trick.

 

So...do I think it more likely that:

 

1. South made his re-opening X with only 2♥, OR

2. That he is 5341 and decided against ruffing his ♦ loser in dummy. In this scenario, partner also only bid 3♣ with 8 of them...perhaps a bit strange but we are vul.

 

While 2 seems unlikely, I think 1 is LESS likely. So I'm leading a low ♥ right away and hoping we win ♠A, ♠ruff, 2♥, and a ♦.

 

Declarer can not be 5341, due to pd's signal and pd has no reason to have difficulty in giving proper count in ♦ (He can not have J5 or T5 because we have both J and T)

 

Having said that there are other things that i can not find answer to.

 

-If pd is void in♥, why on earth he led K of♣ instead of Q or J, after all he wants us to take Ace if we hold it and he wants us to ruff if we are void in ♣, no ?

 

- Why did declarer play a ♦ to dummy to play ♠ ? I suspect pd has a ♠ honor.

 

If pd has 8♣, declarer's more likely shape is 6331 rather than 5341 due to pd's signal. At first glance it seems like, if thats the case, we have 2 natural ♥ tricks + 2 natural ♠ tricks if pd has Qx(x) or Kx(x) ♠ + 1♣ and ducking seems winner also even if declarer is 5332 with one of the K or Q missing, right ? Wrong

 

Assume pd has Qx(x) ♠, declarer can make if we duck by simply playing another ♠ locking us, now we have to exit with ♦, he takes in hand and clears ♦ suit and plays ♥ Q

 

-If pd ruffs this and cash a ♣ and exit with ♣, declarer discards a ♥ from hand endplaying pd to play ruff and sluff.

-If pd refuses to ruff this, declarer plays low and we either win this and be endplayed now, or we duck this and get endplayed 1 trick later declarer discarding his ♣.

 

And if declarer is 6331 missing K or Q of ♠, it is undefeatable anyway regardless of what we play.

 

So i think what antrax did was simple and effective in the means of counting declarer's and pd's hand, and tricks for defense and declarer.

[bd71]

Declarer can not be 5341, due to pd's signal and pd has no reason to have difficulty in giving proper count in ♦ (He can not have J5 or T5 because we have both J and T)

 

Yes, good point...I was neglecting the ♦ count signal.

 

So at least I wasn't saying I was convinced that declarer WAS 5341 before, I was just trying to ID a layout where it mattered whether we took A♥ first.

 

Now, considering the ♦ count, I think South is 6331 or 5332.

 

I guess I'm still reluctant to lead ♥A for fear that it gives South an extra discard on the K♥ (assuming he has the ♥Q). Maybe he won't need that discard, but maybe I'm not seeing all options. I have a hard time doing this just on general principles when I can't see clearly why I must do it.

 

So I will admit a potential blind spot and lead a low ♥ right away anyway. Can this hurt? Have to admit that I'm not following all of your possible endplay scenarios, so can't judge whether you are saying it does or doesn't.

[MrAce]

Yes, good point...I was neglecting the ♦ count signal.

 

So at least I wasn't saying I was convinced that declarer WAS 5341 before, I was just trying to ID a layout where it mattered whether we took A♥ first.

 

Now, considering the ♦ count, I think South is 6331 or 5332.

 

I guess I'm still reluctant to lead ♥A for fear that it gives South an extra discard on the K♥ (assuming he has the ♥Q). Maybe he won't need that discard, but maybe I'm not seeing all options. I have a hard time doing this just on general principles when I can't see clearly why I must do it.

 

So I will admit a potential blind spot and lead a low ♥ right away anyway. Can this hurt? Have to admit that I'm not following all of your possible endplay scenarios, so can't judge whether you are saying it does or doesn't.

 

If declarer is 5332 playing low or A of ♥ would not matter, Playing low would not gain anything and would not lose either imo. If declarer is 6331 we can not defeat this even if pd has Kx ♠ regardless of what ♠ we play now and which ♥ we decide.

 

To answer your question only thing that comes to my mind where leading small ♥ loses vs to Ace is if declarer made a funny DBL with a hand like Qxxxxx Q AKx Axx or 6232 shape and pd did not lead his stiff for some reason. I cant come up with an answer that makes sense with the bidding and everything else to be honest. But if people had reasonable bids and played reasonable cards so far i don't think playing small ♥ vs Ace will matter, since we based our defense on pd's ♥ void.