Plan the play

[wyman]

In the spirit of Inquiry's defense series, here's an actual hand from last night on which I took an inferior line of play (regardless of whether it worked). Please A/E give it a day or so [or spoil if you are so inclined] for the B/I crowd to think about this one and shame me with their declaring prowess:

 

Opps carding is UDCA. Plan the play.

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sj43hakj53d3c8643&w=sht2dac&n=sq852hq9864dk742c&e=sh7d5c&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=2hd4hppp&p=h2h4h7had3dad2d5ht]399|300[/hv]

[SimonFa]

In the spirit of Inquiry's defense series, here's an actual hand from last night on which I took an inferior line of play (regardless of whether it worked). Please A/E give it a day or so [or spoil if you are so inclined] for the B/I crowd to think about this one and shame me with their declaring prowess:

 

Opps carding is UDCA. Plan the play.

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sj43hakj53d3c8643&w=sht2dac&n=sq852hq9864dk742c&e=sh7d5c&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=2hd4hppp&p=h2h4h7had3dad2d5ht]399|300[/hv]

Tough problem, well for this B/I anyway. Here's my thoughts....

 

 

 

 

Looks like we've got 2 tricks by winning ♥10, I'm not sure where yet, but we'll have to win it. We could make 6 trumps by cross ruffing which means we're one short. There's no chance of establishing a minor so it looks like we have to make a spade. Looking at what we've got not a very enticing prospect.

 

So what do we know:

 

There are 6 spades outstanding. West's double implies that he doesn't have 5 as he would bid them and he is expected to have at least 3.

 

East has played the ♦5 on our lead which we'll take as count and an odd number as the is the lowest outstanding Diamond, either 1, 3 or 5. There are 8 outstanding so if he had 1 then West would have have 7 and would almost certainty have bid them. Could be 3 but if it is then East would be 1(2) 1 3 8(7) and we would expect him to bid 5 clubs. It looks like its 5 which makes West 4(3) 2 3 4(5) and East 1(2) 1 5 6(5).

 

Missing spades are AKT96, if they are 4-1 then it looks good and 3-2 I could be in trouble depending on the distribution and I would certainly want West with HHx in that case.

 

I'm reckon we can strip West of his minor's either directly or through a squeeze during the cross rough and end play him and I want to end in dummy to lead a spade through East.

 

So I'm winning 10♥ in hand with the K then:

 

♣- ruff

K♦- ♣

♣- ruff

♦- ruff

♣ - ruff

 

Which I reckon gets me down to

 

♠Q852

 

&

 

♠J43

♥J

 

with lead from Dummy

 

Now I lead a small spade. If East wins with and honour I pitch a small spade and he either lead a spade and I'm home or a minor and I win in hand and lead up to Q. If East had both honours I was stuffed anyway.

 

If plays a small spade I put in the Jack and either West is end played and I make the Queen or he exists with a minor which I win and hope he had HHx, which is most likely given all the points he has.

 

 

 

[MrAce]

Tough problem, well for this B/I anyway. Here's my thoughts....

 

 

 

 

Looks like we've got 2 tricks by winning ♥10, I'm not sure where yet, but we'll have to win it. We could make 6 trumps by cross ruffing which means we're one short. There's no chance of establishing a minor so it looks like we have to make a spade. Looking at what we've got not a very enticing prospect.

 

So what do we know:

 

There are 6 spades outstanding. West's double implies that he doesn't have 5 as he would bid them and he is expected to have at least 3.

 

East has played the ♦5 on our lead which we'll take as count and an odd number as the is the lowest outstanding Diamond, either 1, 3 or 5. There are 8 outstanding so if he had 1 then West would have have 7 and would almost certainty have bid them. Could be 3 but if it is then East would be 1(2) 1 3 8(7) and we would expect him to bid 5 clubs. It looks like its 5 which makes West 4(3) 2 3 4(5) and East 1(2) 1 5 6(5).

 

Missing spades are AKT96, if they are 4-1 then it looks good and 3-2 I could be in trouble depending on the distribution and I would certainly want West with HHx in that case.

 

I'm reckon we can strip West of his minor's either directly or through a squeeze during the cross rough and end play him and I want to end in dummy to lead a spade through East.

 

So I'm winning 10♥ in hand with the K then:

 

♣- ruff

K♦- ♣

♣- ruff

♦- ruff

♣ - ruff

 

Which I reckon gets me down to

 

♠Q852

 

&

 

♠J43

♥J

 

with lead from Dummy

 

Now I lead a small spade. If East wins with and honour I pitch a small spade and he either lead a spade and I'm home or a minor and I win in hand and lead up to Q. If East had both honours I was stuffed anyway.

 

If plays a small spade I put in the Jack and either West is end played and I make the Queen or he exists with a minor which I win and hope he had HHx, which is most likely given all the points he has.

 

 

 

 

 

I think u are losing if ♠ honors are split and there is plenty of room for east to hold a ♠ honor. If you win the 2nd♥ in dummy, discard a ♠ on ♦K, and play a ♠ towards J and later play a ♠ to Q. This works when west has HHxx or any 3-3 ♠ split. Basically this covers all the options that your line does in addition of all 3-3♠ regardless of who holds which honor(s). If ♠ honors are split and 4-2 we might make it by ducking the 2nd ♠, but this is unlikely because if east has 2♠ he also showed singleton ♥ he might have bid 4NT or 5m perhaps ?

 

[SimonFa]

 

I think u are losing if ♠ honors are split and there is plenty of room for east to hold a ♠ honor. If you win the 2nd♥ in dummy, discard a ♠ on ♦K, and play a ♠ towards J and later play a ♠ to Q. This works when west has HHxx or any 3-3 ♠ split. Basically this covers all the options that your line does in addition of all 3-3♠ regardless of who holds which honor(s). If ♠ honors are split and 4-2 we might make it by ducking the 2nd ♠, but this is unlikely because if east has 2♠ he also showed singleton ♥ he might have bid 4NT or 5m perhaps ?

 

 

Thanks for the feedback. Of course there was a more fundamental flaw in my thinking - I couldn't add up to 13 in Spades :(

[wyman]

At the table, I made an error and placed 4 spades with LHO. Since she didn't lead an honor, I supposed the honors were split and played the J of spades from hand (won by the ace on my left) and then ducked a spade, hoping RHO would have to win the king.

 

This line is far, far inferior to that which MrAce suggested. Pitch a spade on the diamond king and continue as before: jack of spades and either a spade to the Q (playing lefty for both honors) or duck a spade (playing righty for Hx). I actually don't know whether it's better to play LHO for AKxx or for split honors (I suspect split honors). But pitching the spade gives you the added chance of 3-3 spades. You can ruff the 3rd spade in hand and finally score the SQ.

 

On this deal, the spades were 3-3 with honors split. As pointed out in the thread, this is very likely; otherwise, RHO has 10 cards in the minors, and it's likely he'd do something over 4H.

 

We scored -100 for half the matchpoints (the rest of the NS pairs were either -120 or +100, so I assume we took the first 5 hearts in 2 or 3NT and that was the end of that), but this should have been a top had I thought harder about the hand.