Is the 2012 election decided already?

[mike777]

Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag.

 

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House.

 

 

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2011/08/30/never-wrong-pundit-picks-obama-to-win-in-2012

[cherdano]

Every model is right, until it is wrong.

[hrothgar]

Every model is right, until it is wrong.

 

Von Neuman famously said: Give me 4 parameters and I can fit an elephant. Give me 5 and I'll make him wiggle his trunk.

This model is using a dozen parameters to fit seven observations.

There aren't nearly enough degrees of freedom, nor have I seen much discussion about cross validation or any other techniques to protect against over fitting.

 

Moreover, many of the predictors seem rather subjective.

[hrothgar]

delete

[PassedOut]

Stupid predictions like this one simply waste people's time. No one knows who will win, and the subjective assignment of values to 13 "keys" doesn't change that. The economic situation vastly outweighs other factors, so the "keys" can't have equal weights.

 

Nate Silver: Despite Keys, Obama Is No Lock

 

In addition, as I mentioned, at least a couple of variables can credibly be scored in either direction for each election. That gives Mr. Lichtman even more flexibility. It’s less that he has discovered the right set of keys than that he’s a locksmith and can keep minting new keys until he happens to open all 38 doors.