Playing for overtricks in 3NT

[dcrc2]

Here's a simple little hand from the club which I got wrong. I'm hoping others will find my mistake instructive.

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sak9ht874dj3ckjt3&n=s4haq6dakq974cq86&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=1dp1hp3dp3nppp]266|200[/hv]

 

LHO leads the ♥9, after some thought. Clearly this contract is going to make, but it's pairs so overtricks are important. How do you play, and why?

[MrAce]

Here's a simple little hand from the club which I got wrong. I'm hoping others will find my mistake instructive.

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sak9ht874dj3ckjt3&n=s4haq6dakq974cq86&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=1dp1hp3dp3nppp]266|200[/hv]

 

LHO leads the ♥9, after some thought. Clearly this contract is going to make, but it's pairs so overtricks are important. How do you play, and why?

 

♥ K J is offside if the lead is honest. If you go up with the A and knock down ♣ A, if West takes and plays another ♥ they will score 1♣+2♥ for +430. You need to take the ♥ finesse, which will lose, but now defense can not continue ♥ and can never take 3rd trick, you safely knock ♣A for +460 (assuming ♦ behave).

[jmcw]

Agree with MrAce, BUT what about that lead?

The ♥9 is not normal and presents a curious problem

 

On any other lead I have 12 or 13 tricks, 6♦, 3♣, and at least 3 Major suit tricks. So making 4 or 5 gets me the same bottom score.

 

Therefore I play the ♥Q knowing its the only play to get me a decent score.

[MrAce]

Agree with MrAce, BUT what about that lead?

The ♥9 is not normal and presents a curious problem

 

On any other lead I have 12 or 13 tricks, 6♦, 3♣, and at least 3 Major suit tricks. So making 4 or 5 gets me the same bottom score.

 

Therefore I play the ♥Q knowing its the only play to get me a decent score.

 

 

♥ K J is offside if the lead is honest. If you go up with the A and knock down ♣ A, if West takes and plays another ♥ they will score 1♣+2♥ for +430. You need to take the ♥ finesse, which will lose, but now defense can not continue ♥ and can never take 3rd trick, you safely knock ♣A for +460 (assuming ♦ behave).

[1eyedjack]

There is a chance for 12 tricks if the H9 is singleton, and opening leader has the CA, or if the other hand has the CA and misdefends by failing to cash the HK when in with the CA. This also makes 12 on the same misdefence if the H9 was top of doubleton and RHO holds CA.

 

You can play for any of the above scenarios by rising with HA at trick 1 and immediately playing on Clubs. This does however result in just the one overtrick if the H9 is doubleton, the opening leader has the CA, and he correctly continues with another H (which is likely) when in with the CA. Then you look a bit sick because there is a guaranteed line for 11 tricks as already stated. However, to play for the certain 11 pretty much gives up on 12.

 

I don't think it is particularly obvious whether you should play for a certain 11 or to play for 10 or 12. In a vacuum, a priori the H9 is more likely to be top of doubleton than a singleton. This ignores the fact that arguably a singleton 9 lead may be, on the bidding, more attractive than a doubleton. If the opening leader decides to lead a shortage, and not through strengh but up to declarer's bid suit, instead of leading an expected length in Spades, then it may be interesting to ask yourself why. Typically, you lead shortage rather than length because you lack an entry to your long suit. This suggests that RHO is better than 50% likely to be holding the CA, which argues for rising with the HA and hoping that RHO leads Spades when in with the CA in the hope that he can get partner to lead a second Heart through the Queen, and thereby going to bed with the HK.

 

Another factor to consider is that the H9 is unlikely to be a universal choice of opening lead, across the rest of the room. If most declarers are getting a Spade lead, they have an easy 12 tricks provided that RHO does not have all 5 outstanding Diamonds. That Diamond break is extremely unlikely, particularly if the Heart lead is from shortage. If the rest of the room is making 12 tricks than you will score roughly the same matchpoints regardless of whether you make 10 or 11. You need 12 just to score an average (OK there may be a few in 6 going down).

 

On balance, therefore, I vote for rising with the HA at trick 1 and playing on Clubs. Is this typical of an B/I standard question?

[JLOGIC]

Rising with the ace is awful imo, to me it smacks of having too much general bridge intelligence but not enough common sense to apply it. Nobody is leading the stiff 9 here against 3N, it is just incredibly unlikely. 9x, 9xx are just way more likely. Even if you think "the H9 is always a bad lead from any holding," fair enough, but people make bad passive 9xx leads way more likely than bad stiff 9 leads vs 3N.

 

Why can't west have KJ9? That would be a far better lead than stiff 9. Even if west never has KJ9, surely there is a chance that someone else in the field will lead a heart if our LHO does. It would be a shame to lose to that guy because I popped ace.

[Free]

♥Q is best imo. Playing the Ace is risky and you can end up with only 10 tricks (West having ♣A, East having ♥KJx) for an absolute bottom. Playing small risks losing to the J as well as to the K, while playing the Q only risks losing to the K.

 

If RHO wins this trick, he can't play ♥ back unless he wants to try and force an error in the defense. So our 11 tricks are safe.

[1eyedjack]

Why can't west have KJ9?

 

I hear what you are saying, and acknowledge the possibility, but I am unpersuaded by the conclusion. If he has led the 9 from KJ9 into a suit bid by declarer then I will bestow my congratulations at the end of the hand, but I will not expect it to be replicated by a significant number of players.

 

Some of the room may be in slam, some making, some failing, but we cannot influence our score against them (other than by going down in 3N, which is not going to happen on any line). Of those others who are in 3N I am expecting that the overwhelming majority will make 12 ticks, either because it is played by North or because they do not get a Heart lead or because they make the correct decision following a Heart lead or because the opponents misdefend by failing to cash the Heart King immediately on obtaining the lead with Club Ace. Accordingly I am underwhelmed with any concerns about the possibility of making just 10 tricks when I might have guaranteed 11. So for me it is all down to how likely it is that he has underled the King, and as I say I will congratulate him if he did but will not play him for it.

[han]

Rising with the ace is awful imo, to me it smacks of having too much general bridge intelligence but not enough common sense to apply it.

 

Completely agree. Rising with the ace is hopefully something that people would only do in forum posts, it's just awful.

[Phil]

Agree with not playing the AH but I would at least ask myself ¨whats happening in the spade suit¨. I find it pretty odd that LHO would prefer a heart to any 4 or 5 card spade holding. Unless of course LHO is a forum genius.

 

I´d play the QH at T1. LHO´s tank might mean a tricky lead from K9x or something like that.

 

By the way, too bad we couldn't find 6D on these cards.

[VM1973]

It seems like the "obvious" lead on this is a spade considering that's your weak suit. If that is led at other tables then most declarers will have little difficulty in scooping up 12 tricks. I'll put in the ♥Q at matchpoints. If it works, I'll have time to knock out the ♣A and get 12 tricks. If it doesn't work, I'll need to hope that other tables got a similar defense.

 

At least I can hope that East can't continue to attack the heart suit because of the ♥10 in hand.

[dcrc2]

OK, my apologies: I posted this hand because I thought it was clear to play the ace.

 

I do still think that, playing against typical club opponents, it's a mistake to play the queen. Never mind the singleton ♥9 possibility, you have an excellent chance of a misdefence. If East has the ♣A he's almost bound to go wrong and return a spade. If West has it, I supsect he'll still return a spade some of the time, and even if he plays a second heart there will be some Easts who don't cash their third trick. If you play the ♥Q at trick one, no defenders on earth can go wrong - you'll make +460, and that is a bottom score.

 

But I still totally misanalysed the hand, because even if I'm right about these opponents, a hand which you need to know who the opponents are doesn't belong in this forum. Sorry! Hope it was interesting in some way.

[JLOGIC]

I hear what you are saying, and acknowledge the possibility, but I am unpersuaded by the conclusion. If he has led the 9 from KJ9 into a suit bid by declarer then I will bestow my congratulations at the end of the hand, but I will not expect it to be replicated by a significant number of players.

 

Some of the room may be in slam, some making, some failing, but we cannot influence our score against them (other than by going down in 3N, which is not going to happen on any line). Of those others who are in 3N I am expecting that the overwhelming majority will make 12 ticks, either because it is played by North or because they do not get a Heart lead or because they make the correct decision following a Heart lead or because the opponents misdefend by failing to cash the Heart King immediately on obtaining the lead with Club Ace. Accordingly I am underwhelmed with any concerns about the possibility of making just 10 tricks when I might have guaranteed 11. So for me it is all down to how likely it is that he has underled the King, and as I say I will congratulate him if he did but will not play him for it.

 

You are playing for them to lead stiff 9 of declarer's suit against 3N lol. You act like there is some chance that this is happening. I am "unpersuaded" by the argument of, oh no, we're *****ed, let's just make real sure that we are *****ed as a reaction to it. If there is no chance they have stiff 9, popping with the ace can never be right.

 

I will say it again, if our LHO has chosen to lead from 9xx of hearts, why is there zero chance that someone else will do it? We are going to lose half a matchpoint against those people. You act like them leading from 9xx or 9x or KJ9 is super ridiculous, yet you are playing for them to have led from stiff 9. Stiff 9! I will take my chances with a small chance rather than a zero percent chance.

 

Never mind the singleton ♥9 possibility, you have an excellent chance of a misdefence.

 

On the other hand, this is a very legitimate reason to go up with the ace. Well done. This argument may have swayed me.

[VM1973]

If we assume that West is rational and he is leading hearts from ♥9x or something that must mean he is broke and is looking to find his partner with something. In that case the ♣A and ♥K must be with RHO and we're probably screwed from the start.

 

But as JLOGIC said (and I didn't consider) maybe there are pairs in 6♦.

[JLOGIC]

But as JLOGIC said (and I didn't consider) maybe there are pairs in 6♦.

 

Huh? I didn't say this. Pairs in 6D are irrelevant.

[ggwhiz]

I play in ACBL individuals quite a few times for entertainment and to check my blood pressure.

 

The Q♥ is definitely the play as the lead could be from anything in those. Always the play though as you have 11 (or 12) regardless and as pointed out, you may be one of many facing the same lead.

[1eyedjack]

On the other hand, this is a very legitimate reason to go up with the ace. Well done. This argument may have swayed me.

This was a very significant part of my argument for playing the Ace. If you had read my post I was not relying solely on the lead being a singleton. Apology accepted.

 

For those who think that Q is right and Ace is "just awful", perhaps you can quantify your argument by breaking it down into chunks as follows:

 

(1) Please split your estimate of West's likely Heart holding into the following:

(i) Lead away from Heart King

(ii) Singleton

(iii) 5 card suit excluding King (ie King dropping singleton offside)

(iv) Other

These should add up to a total probability of 1.

 

(2) Please specify your estimate of RHO holding the Club Ace, In my earlier post I figured that this was more than 50% by reason of Opening leader not choosing a Spade lead. No-one has yet commented on this. If you think as I do that it is most likely to be a lead from shortage (including doubleton, not just singleton), then I rated the chances of RHO having Club Ace to be considerably greater than 50%, because with an entry to his Spade suit he would be more likely to lead a Spade. Feel free to give separate probabilities based on the various possible Heart holdings.

 

(3) *IF* RHO has both Club Ace and Heart King, please estimate the odds of East cashing Heart King (rather than Spade switch) when in with Club Ace, if you have played Heart Ace at trick 1. Personally I rated this earlier as being very low.

 

(4) *IF* RHO has Club Ace but NOT Heart King, please estimate the odds of East leading Heart to partner's King (rather than Spade switch) when in with Club Ace, if you have played Heart Ace at trick 1. (Personally I rate this a bit more than 3, but not by much).

 

(5) I think that the only other situation worth considering is LHO having both key honours and whether he would immediately cash the established Heart king if you eschew the finesse. Given that he has made such an inspired lead I am happy to concede that this would be a certainty.

 

I think that with those separate odds estimates I can construct a likelihood of 12 tricks by rising with the Ace. I suppose that to complete the analysis (ie the NECESSITY of 12 tricks and whether the distinction between 10 and 11 would be broadly irrelevant to the MP score) we would need to estimate the frequency of the room finding the same lead from the various holdings (including the frequency of getting the 3N declared by partner, so that the Hearts are protected at trick 1). One of the major differences between us is that my detractors think that a "brilliant" lead of a heart away from the king would be replicated by a significant proportion of the room. I did not accept that when it was proposed and I see no reason to accept it now.

[JLOGIC]

Apology accepted.

 

 

Lol. Srs question, U MAD? I don't know why you would want or expect an apology for me being wrong about a bridge argument that you were right about, isn't that the point of the forum? I dunno if you were just being sarcastic or what. Sorry I didn't see your point about a defensive error! (ok no, im not!).

[JLOGIC]

(1) Please split your estimate of West's likely Heart holding into the following:

(i) Lead away from Heart King

(ii) Singleton

(iii) 5 card suit excluding King (ie King dropping singleton offside)

(iv) Other

These should add up to a total probability of 1.

 

 

How do you still not get it. I (and I presume han) think the chance of ii is 0>x<.0000000000001

 

No one is leading stiff 9. And WTF at iii, 9 from J9xxx...ok I'll go with about the same as ii.

 

As far as RHO cashing the heart, obviously it depends on how good they are, but there is definitely a very good chance that they won't. I would estimate this as much higher than i (lead from KJ9 of hearts).

[JLOGIC]

So to sum up:

 

-I think the best/only argument for playing the ace is that they might not cash the HK later, this has a much higher chance than anything else.

-I think playing the ace is right because of that

-Obv I overlooked this possibility in my earlier posts, and/or did not see you make that point. I argued strongly against there being any chance that LHO had the stiff 9 of hearts which obv I still stand by.

 

Apparently that warrants an apology, lol. I thought it was a good discussion, obv since I changed my mind, but if we are just trying to prove ourselves right and have others apologize for being wrong/being bad at reading...

[1eyedjack]

How do you still not get it. I (and I presume han) think the chance of ii is 0>x<.0000000000001

 

No one is leading stiff 9. And WTF at iii, 9 from J9xxx...ok I'll go with about the same as ii.

 

As far as RHO cashing the heart, obviously it depends on how good they are, but there is definitely a very good chance that they won't. I would estimate this as much higher than i (lead from KJ9 of hearts).

 

We can agree to differ on (i). Bear in mind that it is not the a priori odds that we need, but the odds as adjusted in light of bidding and lead.

I agree with your estimate of (iii). I would not expect that to have a significant effect on the calculation. I included it for completeness. I do not rely on it and do not insist on it. It was included purely for completeness to ensure that all options add up to a probability of 1.

We can also agree to differ on the relative likelihood of West underleading HK compared with East failing to cash the King. Even if you think that lead from King is more likely (I do not), I remain of the view that "just awful" is pure hyperbole.

[JLOGIC]

KJ9 is just an aggressive lead...if partner has the queen it works out well! IME people make this lead, I mean it would be weird but it has definite obvious upside.

 

Leading stiff 9 of RHOs suit is not passive and is not looking to build tricks, it is just completely random.

 

Obviously I overlooked the chance of any defensive error (which when I saw pointed out, acknowledged immediately...I am not looking to just be right). I am not always right. That said, in the context of me overlooking that, "just awful" was not intended as hyperbole. I think stiff 9 is 0 % so I thought playing the ace was "just awful" in the sense of nullo. Obv my bad for overlooking the main point of the hand, thanks for setting me straight, sorry that I am not always right and miss things. Please take my "just awful" post in context of completely missing the main (only imo) reason for playing the ace. I could be wrong about that also, but it was just my opinion, and I was throwing it out there.

 

I am not actually sorry but I am still curious if I offended you...if so, don't really know what to say.

[JLOGIC]

Playing the queen is awful imo btw :P

[1eyedjack]

I guess I just had a bad night.

 

I was curious by your comment regarding whether RHO was "good enough" to cash the Heart King when in with the Club Ace. If cashing the King is the measure of his greatness as a player, would he still be so great a player if the next time he does that in the same situation declarer turns out to have had Spade KQJ instead of AK?

[JLOGIC]

I guess I just had a bad night.

 

I was curious by your comment regarding whether RHO was "good enough" to cash the Heart King when in with the Club Ace. If cashing the King is the measure of his greatness as a player, would he still be so great a player if the next time he does that in the same situation declarer turns out to have had Spade KQJ instead of AK?

 

He will not win the first club. He will get some signal from partner (I like suit preference, most seem to like smith, same thing). ez game.