Distributional Filth

[jdeegan]

HCP is the first estimate of tricks.

Use HCP and combined trumps for the second estimate of tricks.

 

Expected(tricks) = trumps + (HCP-20)/3 + e

 

This is the equation for the estimate of tricks for one side.

 

Wirgrens/Lawrence work does NOT replace LOTT. Used with LOTT it improves the estimates.

 

E(tricks) = C(ts) + (HCP-20)/3 + e

 

Where the array C is a family of constants for each combined trumps and pattern fit combination.

:P the integral of e to the x = fun.

[jogs]

:P the integral of e to the x = fun.

 

ANOVA. Analysis of variance.

Forgot to state that 'e' is the residue errors.

[Fluffy]

The second double is a power double (extra strength, not extra distribution).

 

I know you changed your mind on this hand, but I am not talking about the hand, IMO this statement is wrong on ageneral basis, a second double promises extras, wich can be on the form of extra strenght, or on the form of extra shape, so partner can have 13 count with 4036 or 18 count 4144 or even 22 balanced (some experts will pass with the big balanced hand to avoid us pulling with a weak hand and heart shortness)

[aguahombre]

Hey, Fluff. Where you been?

 

Perhaps on another thread we can debate whether to venture a second double at the 4-level with 4-0-3-6 and a mini.

[MrAce]

....., a second double promises extras, wich can be on the form of extra strenght, or on the form of extra shape, ....

 

I disagree

 

Unless you have an agreement with opponents that says they bid 4♥ only with weak hands and a lot of cards in their pd's suit. It is not uncommon at all to bid 4♥ with very good hands and only 2-3 card fit to pd.

[jdeegan]

I disagree

 

Unless you have an agreement with opponents that says they bid 4♥ only with weak hands and a lot of cards in their pd's suit. It is not uncommon at all to bid 4♥ with very good hands and only 2-3 card fit to pd.

:P I completely agree with MrAce. This why partner has to have a bunch of high cards for the double. He is, in part, protecting against getting swindled. Notwithstanding, you still have to bid with 5-5 in the minors.