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A play


Hanoi5

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[hv=pc=n&s=sk2hq7542daqj2cj2&n=sa9843hat83dktca3&d=n&v=b&b=13&a=1sp2hp4cdpprp4np5dp6hppp]266|200[/hv]

 

West leads the 9, you take the Ace and proceed to discard the club from the table on the diamonds. However, East ruffs the third round with the 6 and plays Q. How do you tackle hearts? What if East returns the K?

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Unless I'm missing something,

 

a) Q wins against Jx in East and

b) 2 wins against Jxx or Kx in East.

 

possibilities/wins

- KJxx -

x KJx -

J Kxx -

K Jxx b)

Jx Kx b)

Kx Jx a)

KJ xx -

KJx x -

 

The double doesn't really affect anything, so you should play small from hand. The fact that split 5-2 makes a 1-3 split even more likely so makes the play stronger.

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Would it have been a better idea to cash the A first?

Agree. Wins against singleton K in either hand or doubleton K in the hand getting the diamond ruff. And you were going to play a heart to the Ace after pitching the club on the diamonds anyway, so you might as well do it first.

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Would it have been a better idea to cash the A first?

Agree ...

After thinking about it some more, banging down the Ace wins twice as often as leading the Q :

 

After the Ht ruff, there are only 3 trumpsa out : K J x

 

   West   East

a) K J x - 0

b) K J - x

c) J x - K

d) K x - J

e) K - J x

f) J - K x

g) x - K J

h) 0 - K J x

 

Bang down the Ace ... wins c) and e)

 

Lead Q ..... wins only d)

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  • 2 weeks later...

If we are planning to play a heart to the ace after East ruffs the third diamond, then we are picking up singleton king in either hand or Kx or KJ doubleton in the East hand. Cashing the ace of hearts first doesn't change that, but also picks up singleton jack with East, so we seem to gain on only one holding (when East is 1-2 in the red suits)

 

 

However, what if West was going to ruff the diamond? Let's suppose we don't know anything about the shapes at the table. Cashing the ace first continues to pick up singleton K in either hand or Kx (KJ) or singleton jack in the hand with short diamonds. However, if West ruffs the third diamond we have the opportunity of over-ruffing, possibly cashing the HA (depending on what he ruffed with), crossing to a spade and playing the fourth diamond. I think this is worse, but my brain is going to explode so I'll let someone else work it out.

 

I'm not sure what to read into the lead of the 9 of clubs, I'd need to know their leading methods, because if it implies shortage I agree that East is hugely likely to have the short diamonds.

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I feel very strongly that East has short diamonds (just kidding; I know what you meant), and probably short spades as well since the Q, passing strange in any case, is risky hence extremely unlikely from QJx. This is more reason to suspect J86 with East.
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