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How confident are you?


jschafer

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[hv=pc=n&s=sj764h93dt3ca9875&n=sak52ha6dk9cqt643&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=p1c1d1s3d3sppp]266|200[/hv]

A small is led and you duck thinking it is more likely that RHO goes up with the Ace from AJ than that LHO underled his A. RHO wins with the J, cashes the Ace and returns the 3. You cash the AK finding the s to be 3-2 and put LHO on lead with a 3rd round of .He returns the Q, which you win. You play another round of s in case they break s for you. RHO wins with the T and gives you a ruff and discard by playing another . How do you play the club suit?

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It looks like LHO has Q, QJ and the Q. If LHO had the K too, that would be a rather strong 3D bid, so discount that. Now we need to figure out whether the suit is Jx-K or J-Kx (any other layout and it can't be made). LHO has 3 spades and 4 diamonds. Hearts are probably 5-4 since with 6, he might have tried to show them. If it's 4-5, then RHO has overcalled 1D with 5-5 in the reds. So I assume LHO started with 3541 shape and run the queen. Pretty confident it's the best line, but not very confident it will work lol.

 

Just realised I can't make it if LHO has 6 hearts anyway (would give him 3640 shape)

edit:

or maybe I'm biased since I seem to remember this hand :)

 

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Why do you assume LHO has Q? K, QJ and Q are honours LHO could hold aren't they?

 

EDIT: If you remember where you think you recognise this hand from I would be curious to know where from :)

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whether the Q is on our left or our right makes little difference to me, tho as a practical matter, against any but the weakest opp, I would fly the K at trick one, since RHO will usually tell me where the Q is next.....if he leads low, he has the J, and if he leads the J, he either has the J10, or is making a deceptive play from QJ, and even ignoring the reality that most players won't do that, restricted choice suggests he didn't.

 

But that is a minor quibble.

 

it sure looks as if LHO is 3=5=4=1, since we can't make if he is 3=6=4=0, as previously noted. Since it is highly unlikely that rho has 5-5 in the reds, and I am not placing him with a club void (even were he prone to 1 with 2=5=6=0, he'd signal violently for a switch at trick 1). So he almost has to be 2=4=5=2.

 

I am not playing LHO for Qxx QJxxx xxxx K....while possible, I prefer to play rho for xx Kxxx AJ9xx Kx, so lead the Q.

 

As to how confident I am, I'd expect to be right (where it matters) say 65% of the time.

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I was wondering, if you have no other information as to where the Q is on this hand. Would it be a correct to play LHO for the J because he cannot hold the Q AND K but can hold Q AND J. So playing him for the J is playing LHO for any holding whereas playing him for the K is playing for any without the Queen.
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Do opps have any agreements about what West's 3 call means? Basically it looks like I have to choose between W holding Qxx QJxxx Jxxx J and Qxx QJxxx Jxxx K. I am inclined to play for the latter unless the opps have an agreement that 3 is preemptive in which case I would try the former.
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Do opps have any agreements about what West's 3 call means? Basically it looks like I have to choose between W holding Qxx QJxxx Jxxx J and Qxx QJxxx Jxxx K. I am inclined to play for the latter unless the opps have an agreement that 3 is preemptive in which case I would try the former.

East has played the J at trick 1, so West can't have any of your holdings... :P

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