jdeegan Posted November 23, 2011 Report Share Posted November 23, 2011 intrade has it at about 51% Obama, 37% Romney, 12% anyone else.Intrade sounds about right, imo. Trouble is with the actual election almost a year away, it's really hard to guess who will win. Gingrich clobbered the Republican field in last night's foreign policy debate - even the commentators said as much. However, he can self-destruct at any time.Imho, Obama can win easily if he campaigns with an aggressive but plausible sounding plan to reduce unemployment. He needs to pretend he is FDR and start advocating some extensive new programs. This recession is unlike past ones. Sluggish employment gains are, at least in part, caused by some fundamental structural shifts in the economy. How many home foreclosures, half empty shopping centers, and poor vehicle sales years do you have to see to get that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mbodell Posted November 23, 2011 Report Share Posted November 23, 2011 I'm a little more pessimistic than intrade about Obama's chances because the election isn't going to be for another year. If it were held now, I'd like those odds. I expect the economy will be going in a worse direction (combination of fundamentals, europe, roll back of stimulus and political gridlock, continued pain at the state level) for the next year and that this will hurt Obama (rightly or wrongly). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted November 23, 2011 Report Share Posted November 23, 2011 I'm a little more pessimistic than intrade about Obama's chances because the election isn't going to be for another year. If it were held now, I'd like those odds. I expect the economy will be going in a worse direction (combination of fundamentals, europe, roll back of stimulus and political gridlock, continued pain at the state level) for the next year and that this will hurt Obama (rightly or wrongly). You can bet on the republican candidate to win fwiw. Republicans now 46.8 % (which is weird...I guess it's possible that someone runs as a third party and has ~2% to win or something? lol). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aberlour10 Posted November 23, 2011 Report Share Posted November 23, 2011 Compared to how these all republican candidates are going to act in foreign issues seems GWB to be a choirboy. ;-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_20686 Posted November 23, 2011 Report Share Posted November 23, 2011 Obama will win easily if the economy starts to recover nicely. If the economy tanks he will lose. If it goes on much as now there will be a close race. There is an incredibly large penalty among swing voters for being in charge when the economy is tanking. Since the obama administration doesnt seem to have a lot in hand in terms of public opinion, he has nothing to spare. Having said that, in a surprising turn of events the US economy might be rebounding. Latest numbers were way above estimates, and the consensus forecast for Q4 growth is now 3% annualised according to JP Morgan. Still, economic forecasting makes astrologers look good, so who knows what will happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted November 23, 2011 Report Share Posted November 23, 2011 I am always impressed with how much foreigners seem to know about american politics (aka, way way more than me!). I know part of this is LOLamericans and we are accustomed to a lower level of knowing about other countries and all that... but I was wondering how much of it is that I am getting a skewed sample because I read internet forums (where people are more likely to be the types to read up and follow american politics, and more likely to be smart), and how much of it is that it is actually common for an average person from a random western european country to know about US politics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aberlour10 Posted November 24, 2011 Report Share Posted November 24, 2011 It's much easier for the average European to follow US politics than reversed for the US guys, because there are only two clear structured political camps and two centres of political power, White House & Congress.A glass house...compared the the "european jungle" Also, I suppose there are x times more US politic reports in main european TV news than reversed. And not at least the global impacts of the US politic on Europe are much bigger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_20686 Posted November 29, 2011 Report Share Posted November 29, 2011 I am always impressed with how much foreigners seem to know about american politics (aka, way way more than me!). I know part of this is LOLamericans and we are accustomed to a lower level of knowing about other countries and all that... but I was wondering how much of it is that I am getting a skewed sample because I read internet forums (where people are more likely to be the types to read up and follow american politics, and more likely to be smart), and how much of it is that it is actually common for an average person from a random western european country to know about US politics. You are getting a very skewed sample. My friends, to a man, are generally v smart people, but in a poll on a group conversation, it turned out about 30% of them didnt know the difference between deficit and debt. :( Since that has been dominating political discourse for about two years, it was really pretty depressing. I can only imagine that the general population is much worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonottawa Posted December 1, 2011 Report Share Posted December 1, 2011 In other news, the time may have come to buy Romney. I have thought the whole time that if ANY viable candidate emerged, they would beat Romney, cuz ZOMG HES A MORMON! That said, if the most viable alternative is Newt... I can't really see Romney losing at this point. Romney's dropped below 50% now. Gingrich is soaring (is America ready for a First Homewrecker? I'm still clinging to the hope that somehow Paul or Huntsman will break through.) In other news, the time may have come to ask Justin for political predictions so you can bet on the opposite happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted December 1, 2011 Report Share Posted December 1, 2011 I officially bought Romney, doesn't necessarily mean I am wrong if I wanted to buy Romney earlier as I am not trying to predict how the market will change, just who will win (I am a value investor! lol). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonottawa Posted December 1, 2011 Report Share Posted December 1, 2011 Gingrich would also be only the 2nd divorced president. As I type this Romney 47.4 Gingrich 37.6. I guess it's cool that we're into December and it's still a race, I just wish I liked one of the two candidates. If only Ron Paul were 20 years younger and had a better voice. While I personally can't stand Bachmann I was impressed by her grasp of the issues until her recent 'pull the embassy from Iran' flub. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted December 4, 2011 Report Share Posted December 4, 2011 Ladies and Gentleman, Herman Cain has left the clown car... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awm Posted December 4, 2011 Report Share Posted December 4, 2011 Ladies and Gentleman, Herman Cain has left the clown car... What's more sad is that Huntsman now seems to be excluded from Republican debates. I liked having him there to (occasionally) say something sensible. He's also the one Republican contender I'd consider voting for in the general election (I'm pretty disappointed with Obama)... but of course there was never a chance they'd nominate him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winstonm Posted December 4, 2011 Report Share Posted December 4, 2011 Ladies and Gentleman, Herman Cain has left the clown car... I heard Cain was going to go into business with Rick Perry after the election to start a chain of Texas Dominionist pizza parlors where if the pizza didn't show up within 30 minutes, the customer gets blamed for his lack of delivery faith and has to pay an added corporate inconvenience surcharge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PassedOut Posted December 9, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2011 Looks like the Republican race is entering another phase; Romney is starting to use Gingrich-speak against Newt himself: Newt’s nastiness comes back to haunt him. Nearly two decades ago, Gingrich’s political action committee, with the help of GOP wordsmith Frank Luntz, issued a now-famous memo telling Republican candidates which words they should use to describe their opponents. Among them: “anti,” “betray,” “bizarre,” “corrupt,” “destructive,” “disgrace,” “shame,” “lie,” “pathetic,” “radical,” “self-serving,” “selfish,” “shallow,” “shame,” “sick,” “traitors.” “These are powerful words that can create a clear and easily understood contrast,” this Gingrich-endorsed memo explained. “Remember that creating a difference helps you. Apply these to the opponent, their record, proposals and their party.” With that memo, and with the slashing style of politics that brought Republicans to power in the House for the first time in generations, Gingrich did more than anybody else to set the tone in Washington. Now, in a form of rough justice, the savagery has come full circle and is being used against its sponsor.But wait! Newt has an unlimited supply of adjectives to unleash against his brain-dead, pustule-sucking opponents. Should be a fun month. :lol: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenberg Posted December 9, 2011 Report Share Posted December 9, 2011 Do I really have this right? The December 27th debate will be hosted by Donald Trump?http://www.newsmax.com/Pages/IONSignup.aspx?PROMO_CODE=DA1F-1&gclid=CN3hjvnh9awCFchM4Aod4EHXRwWill ha be saying "You're fired!"? Would whoever is planning this like to stop embarrassing the country? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PassedOut Posted December 9, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2011 Do I really have this right? The December 27th debate will be hosted by Donald Trump?http://www.newsmax.com/Pages/IONSignup.aspx?PROMO_CODE=DA1F-1&gclid=CN3hjvnh9awCFchM4Aod4EHXRwWill ha be saying "You're fired!"? Would whoever is planning this like to stop embarrassing the country?Some of the republican candidates have declined to attend that circus. So far as I know, only Gingrich and Santorum have agreed to appear so far. I understand that Trump will either endorse a candidate after that debate or, if he doesn't like what they say, run himself as an independent. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted December 9, 2011 Report Share Posted December 9, 2011 Some of the republican candidates have declined to attend that circus.santorum probably figures he has nothing to lose... the others don't want to debate newt unless there are enough of them to dilute his time... neither obama nor his teleprompter want to either, but i doubt he has to worry about it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awm Posted December 9, 2011 Report Share Posted December 9, 2011 I think it has more to do with the moderator (who is likely to try and steal the show) than with Newt. I'd expect that Romney would be happy to face off against Newt one-on-one under normal circumstances. I also don't think Obama is scared of Newt -- the same over-the-top attacks that make Newt popular with the Republican base (along with a history of shutting down the government and a wide range of ethical issues) will kill Newt's chances in the general election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted December 9, 2011 Report Share Posted December 9, 2011 I'd expect that Romney would be happy to face off against Newt one-on-one under normal circumstances.i could be wrong, but i think he's already declined that opportunity I also don't think Obama is scared of Newti don't know if he is or not, but i think a debate would not go well for obama Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackshoe Posted December 9, 2011 Report Share Posted December 9, 2011 Lincoln and Douglass debated. These guys? Pah! They wouldn't know a debate if it bit 'em. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winstonm Posted December 10, 2011 Report Share Posted December 10, 2011 New Perry ad implodes. In the commercial, titled "Strong," Perry says, "You know there's something wrong in this country when gays can serve openly in the military but our kids can't openly celebrate Christmas." The spot has even divided top Perry staffers. Terry Fabrizio, a lead pollster for the Perry campaign branded it "nuts" in an email according to Sam Stein of the Huffington Post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerben42 Posted December 10, 2011 Report Share Posted December 10, 2011 New Perry ad implodes. I don't follow US politics THAT accurately but I think this might have been one of the most discriminatory things a presidential candidate has said for a while. Especially painful in an advertisement, which is not live. This is a statement that might come from a Christian version of the Iranian president. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PassedOut Posted December 10, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2011 I don't follow US politics THAT accurately but I think this might have been one of the most discriminatory things a presidential candidate has said for a while. Especially painful in an advertisement, which is not live. This is a statement that might come from a Christian version of the Iranian president.It appears that Perry tried to mitigate the homophobia aspect by dressing like a character in 'Brokeback Mountain' but that might have been too subtle for a political ad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted December 10, 2011 Report Share Posted December 10, 2011 I don't follow US politics THAT accurately but I think this might have been one of the most discriminatory things a presidential candidate has said for a while. Especially painful in an advertisement, which is not live. This is a statement that might come from a Christian version of the Iranian president.You should be glad you aren't following US politics that closely. I think Herman Cain has been a lot worse (try googling Herman Cain bigot). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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