Penalty or try for slam?

[dcohio]

[hv=pc=n&n=sakt3hqt75dkj4ck2&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=1hp2n(Jacoby)3sd(stolen%20bid)p]133|200[/hv]

 

Partner's double was stolen bid (i.e. stiff spade)

 

Sit or try for slam?

[Bbradley62]

I'm probably just stalling, but: IMPs, matchpoints, BAM, etc?

[dcohio]

I'm probably just stalling, but: IMPs, matchpoints, BAM, etc?

 

Sorry, matchpoints, all vulnerable

[mike777]

4c no problem yet.

[semeai]

If East has QJ9-seventh, for passing it looks like 1100 if we can make slam (1430), i.e. lose 8, and 800 if we can make game (620), i.e. win 5. There's also 800 against go down in slam (-100), i.e. win 14.

 

Slam seems more likely than not, and 8 is more than 5, but that 14 looms large. I think I'll pass, but I don't feel confident that I'm right

 

Oops, matchpoints. I'll bid.

 

Thinking about this more: 14 isn't that much more than 8. My IMP vs MP positions seem inconsistent., or shooting for a very narrow target, at least. Probably I was supposed to conclude that I should bid at imps too.

[dcohio]

4c no problem yet.

 

After 4C, you'd hear 4H. If you persist with RKCB, you would get the response of 5H (2 w/o the Q)

 

So you know partner has:

 

x

A????

???(?)

A??(?)

 

He likely has at least 1 minor Q, and probably JH for his opener

[mike777]

After 4C, you'd hear 4H. If you persist with RKCB, you would get the response of 5H (2 w/o the Q)

 

So you know partner has:

 

x

A????

???(?)

A??(?)

 

He likely has at least 1 minor Q, and probably JH for his opener

Pass I am missing 2 keycards.

can be missing 2aces playing rkcb.

[Phil]

I think passing is wrong, but it could work out when we have specifically 800 against the field's 650.

 

However, considering some very basic hands like x KJxxxx Ax Axx are great for 6 and more gives us a grand, I don't see how I can settle for a penalty.

 

3N or 4♣, whatever my serious bid is.

 

(edit) saw the continuation. Is this a question what we do over 5♥?

[benlessard]

I have only 1 keycard so partner need 3 keycard and still we might lose the Q of D. The question is partner more likely to have 3 keycards or only 2 ? It seems that the chance hes got 2 are pretty high. Also E made a vulnerable preempt with a crappy suit wich could easily be a 8 cards suit and a side A wich will mean a possible S ruff.

 

I pass. Running a sim right now curious to see the results.

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&n=sakt3hqt75dkj4ck2&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=1hp2n(Jacoby)3sd(stolen%20bid)p]133|200| dcohio says "Partner's double was stolen bid (i.e. stiff spade) Sit or try for slam?"

 

IMO try for slam with 4♣.

 

dcohio continues "After 4C, you'd hear 4H. If you persist with RKCB, you would get the response of 5H (2 w/o the Q)."

 

IMO pass. You miss two keycards. A cockeyed optimist might hope that one is the ♥K but even then the king may be badly placed. Holding both top trumps, a defender may risk a double.[/hv]

[the hog]

Pass, no problem yet! I expect to pick up at least 800 and even IF there is a slam, how many will bid it?

[benlessard]

Giving East at least 7S and at least 3 pts

 

South has at least 11 pts 0-1 S

 

for 1000 hands I get

 

13 tricks 12%

12 tricks 42%

11 tricks 34%

10 tricks 10%

9 tricks 2%

 

A quick look at the hand tell me that many of the hands arent true red 3S preempt Giving extras shapes and extras points will lower the % of slam making. However It will improve the chance that the penalty is insufficient against game. Also a lot of the hands south had extras and a S void wich are 4S bid rather than 3S.

 

Also if opener has 3 keycard its possible you will not reach par contract (stopping in 6 instead of 7 or going down in 7)

 

So I still like pass but im not convinced.

 

I should have removed south 15 pts+ with a S void wich are 4S bid in my book.

[dcohio]

Pass, no problem yet! I expect to pick up at least 800 and even IF there is a slam, how many will bid it?

 

This was my thought... I figured we're getting at least 800, and that beats all the pairs in 4H+2. At IMPs I may have continued, but I'm not 100% convinced.

 

There was 1 1430, and a bunch of 680s

 

Partner had

 

x

AJxxx

Qxx

Axxx

 

LHO had the stiff K♥ so slam rolls home, but it's not one I'd be in after hearing we're off two keys.

[whereagles]

4NT. Or 4♣ in case pard tends to open on trash and you're playing some values-showing convention like last train :)

[gnasher]

If East has QJ9-seventh, for passing it looks like 1100 if we can make slam (1430), i.e. lose 8, and 800 if we can make game (620), i.e. win 5. There's also 800 against go down in slam (-100), i.e. win 14.

 

Slam seems more likely than not, and 8 is more than 5, but that 14 looms large. I think I'll pass, but I don't feel confident that I'm right

 

Oops, matchpoints. I'll bid.

 

Thinking about this more: 14 isn't that much more than 8. My IMP vs MP positions seem inconsistent., or shooting for a very narrow target, at least. Probably I was supposed to conclude that I should bid at imps too.

 

If you're going to vary your action according to form of scoring, I think you should pass at matchpoints and bid at IMPs. +800 will often be a good matchpoint score even if slam is making. At IMPs, however, +800 is either a small gain against game or a large loss against slam.

 

I would definitely pass 3♠x at matchpoints. Even if LHO has a 7-4, I can hope for three trump tricks and four side-suit tricks.

[VM1973]

No bid. I think the penalty will be worth quite a bit and it slam is unlikely. Although your hand has 6 losers, the ♠K is duplicated so I would have simply signed off without the interference.