Do you want to be in this slam?

[dcohio]

What percentage is this slam?

 

[hv=pc=n&w=saq32hq853d86c872&e=s6hdakq9542caqt96&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=1d1s1n2h6cppp]266|200[/hv]

 

Of course, South held KJx of clubs and it's down 1 :-(

[the hog]

I have been in worse. It is better on a H lead than on a S lead, as if a S is not led you can cash the CA before leading another c from dummy and guessing or seeing an honour pop. Yes, I am happy enough to be in it.

By the way, I disagree with 1NT by West. Ever heard of a sputnik double?

[Cyberyeti]

Also you're in the wrong slam, 6♣ can go off in situations where you can make 6♦ although in practice, the chance of the opening leader with ♣Kx leading a ♦ from 3 are slim to none.

 

In 6♣, if they lead a spade, and you run the 8♣ at trick 2 which I think is best, looking at S's holdings:

 

Make x(3),xx(3),Kx(3),KJ,Kxx(3),Jxx(3),xxx,Kxxx,Jxxx

 

Fail Void,K,J,Jx(3),KJx(3),KJxx(3),KJxxx

 

So your chances are 3/5 of the 4/1s, 14/20 of the 3/2s which is around 64-65% modified by the chance of diamonds 4-0 taking it down to 56-57%.

 

I actually think that your comment on the advantage of a heart lead is a mirage. Since you make on all the Hx onside situations anyway, cashing the ace first loses with KJxx onside (he takes the K when you lead from dummy and scores the J later), gaining to a singleton honour with south, so succeeds slightly less often.

[han]

I love reading play analysis by the Hog. You have to read between the lines to see what he meant, but if you manage then it can be beautiful. Definitely worth an upvote!

 

It is better on a H lead than on a S lead, as if a S is not led you can cash the CA before leading another c from dummy and guessing or seeing an honour pop.

 

No, it's considerably worse on a heart lead, but didn't you mean to say that on a heart lead, the only 4-1 split that you can deal with is the singleton king behind you? Good point, so indeed it is best to bang down the ace!

 

Yes, I am happy enough to be in it.

 

Modest you are, as always! Of course the Hog would rather be in 6D but that does not ruin his spirit, he still has to play 6C first! If you were in 6D you could also bang down the ace of clubs to guard against the singleton jack or king behind you. Of course, as Cyberyeti has pointed out, it would not be the best play.

 

By the way, I disagree with 1NT by West. Ever heard of a sputnik double?

 

Another good point by the Hog! In case you have less life experience than he does, sputnik = negative.