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Maybe just a guess


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You are south in 6H, playing IMPS.

 

The play so far:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sA2hAQT963dK32cA3&n=s43hKJ74dAQ4CQT65&d=n&v=0&b=666&a=1Cp2H%28strong%29p3Hp4NTp5H%282%20without%20Q%29p5Np6Hppp&p=sks3sJsAhah2h4h5h3c2hkh8dad5d2d8dqd6d3djd4d7dkc4s2sqs4s5c7]399|300[/hv]

 

What do you play from dummy?

 

Adv/+ please refrain from posting early (unless posting to point out flaws etc).

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I'm playing the queen. It appears that West is 5-5 in the blacks. Why would he discard clubs and not spades? With Jxxxx it would seem to be a lot more attractive to discard spades. If he had Kxxxx then he's probably feeling comfortable coming down to Kxx. The other thing that you might like to know is what the defenses carding is. If the 2 was encouraging clubs then it's pretty good evidence to play West for the king.
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I'm playing the queen. It appears that West is 5-5 in the blacks. Why would he discard clubs and not spades? With Jxxxx it would seem to be a lot more attractive to discard spades. If he had Kxxxx then he's probably feeling comfortable coming down to Kxx. The other thing that you might like to know is what the defenses carding is. If the 2 was encouraging clubs then it's pretty good evidence to play West for the king.

 

Do the club discards really matter?

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What matters is that he voluntarily won the spade. I play the Ten. If he had the King of clubs, I'd trust him not to go up with the spade. Then he could trust his partner to beat the 4 and lead a club, and we'd have no chance. Since he won the spade, he must not have the King.

 

Likewise, if his partner has the King, he should win the spade to take his partner off the endplay.

 

I suppose there's some small percentage of the time the defenders should offer a grosvenor or else you'll always guess correctly if possible.

 

 

Cute problem, hope I think of that at the table next time.

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of course West can win the exit and break even with the K :) I am trying to remember the name of this coup where one error induces a declarer misplay. Getting old is a b----

 

The word you are looking for is "grosvenor" (probably spelled wrong).

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it's incredibly hard to grosvenor this. If LHO has the jack of clubs, whatever we do doesn't matter. When he doesn't have the jack, gambling on partner to have the Jack is a huge position to take. For all he knows, declarer might have the jack and was just taking an extra chance.
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