5-level decision

[wyman]

w/w MP

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sakt984h82dcqj984&d=e&v=0&b=14&a=p1sd4spp5cpp]133|200[/hv]

 

How close is this?

[Onedown]

How close to what is the question? A PLUS? Partner has made a preemptive bid, either holds 0-2 clubs and assume we could be off 2 heart tricks.

 

We were just bid out of a spade game and making 5 spades, may not happen, in fact we may be off 2 clubs and 2 hearts vs a phantom 5 level game in the reds. East passing 5 clubs, sounds like he doesn't have 6 or 7 cards in either red suit or is just showing great respect for partner.

 

Worst yet if we x 5 clubs, can we defend hearts or diamonds.

 

Partner likely has 7 cards in the red suits, but is weak, but how weak? If he has 9 HCP then X looks right, if he has 0 HCP then 5 spades looks right.

 

Only 1 more bid to consider and that bid is PASS. This may be the wisest choice as it is the sure plus

[jjbrr]

How close to what is the question? A PLUS? Partner has made a preemptive bid, either holds 0-2 clubs and assume we could be off 2 heart tricks.

 

We were just bid out of a spade game and making 5 spades, may not happen, in fact we may be off 2 clubs and 2 hearts vs a phantom 5 level game in the reds. East passing 5 clubs, sounds like he doesn't have 6 or 7 cards in either red suit or is just showing great respect for partner.

 

Worst yet if we x 5 clubs, can we defend hearts or diamonds.

 

Partner likely has 7 cards in the red suits, but is weak, but how weak? If he has 9 HCP then X looks right, if he has 0 HCP then 5 spades looks right.

 

Only 1 more bid to consider and that bid is PASS. This may be the wisest choice as it is the sure plus

 

partner never has anywhere close to 9 HCP given that he has 0 or 1 ♣. furthermore, he may only have 4♠ if he has a ♣ void. I'd double.

[Hanoi5]

I thought of doubling, too. Of course we have too many clubs and the trouble is that they escape to a better suit but then I suppose partner has something in those suits. We'll see what others do.

[olien]

the consensus here is to bid 5♠, but, personally, I like pass. Maybe doubling is right, but where are the red cards?

[MrAce]

Interesting auction.

 

I do not have a DBL vs 6♦, i do have a lightner DBL vs 6♥ if played by LHO, seems like i shd be happy with 5♣.

 

On the other hand i know we were making this 4♠ if they let us and now they will give only 50 for each undertrick.... My gut feelings telling me they will sit on it if i DBL 5♣. Which never fails to turn out to be true when i dont listen, and never fails to embarass me when i do listen.

 

Overall my losses when i do listen to my gut feelings is much more than the times i don't listen, so i will pass :lol:

[Bbradley62]

the consensus here is to bid 5♠, but, personally, I like pass. Maybe doubling is right, but where are the red cards?

Consensus of whom?

[BunnyGo]

I dunno...We're definitely setting 5♣, who knows how much they can make in diamonds or hearts. Were we even making 4♠? Well, probably. I hate talking opponents into finding the right spot, especially if we've given them a tougher time than other tables (we at least haven't made it easy on them so far). I probably double, and hope that they don't run or partner can hit whatever they run to.

 

That said, since you posted this, I'll say pass is probably the right action, because you'd have doubled at the table. :D

[Phil]

I would want to be at the table for this one.

[jonottawa]

I'd rather double and be wrong than pass and be wrong. We're not beating this 9.

[wyman]

@Jon -- I don't think we're beating it 3 very often either, so I am not too worried about competing with 450. I'm more worried about 50 v 100 or 100 v 300.

 

This question was posed to me (I don't know the full deal yet). I thought it was pretty interesting.

 

5S probably has play, especially if the lead is suboptimal and/or the layout favorable. Pard could show up with the (likely onside) heart king and a club void (and out), for instance. It also has the upside of potentially pushing them to bid 6-any, which is smashable (although I'll be unhappy if it's 6D, I don't see how 6D= or 6Dx= is going to be too much different, and we might need to compete with 5Cx-1 or 5C-1 or 5C-2 at another table if we're beating 6D). But my own guess was that 10 tricks in 5Sx is probably the worst possible case for us, and there are many layouts where this happens (not to mention a trump lead, if LHO has any, would be pretty bad here -- and not *too* hard to find), so I'm not bidding 5S.

 

Which brings up an interesting problem and follow-up:

 

A) Do we hit 5C?

Upside (vs pass): MP's, we're almost always beating it

Downside: They might run.

 

B) If we hit it, what do we do over (5D)-P-(P)-? I guess we lightner double 5H and hope for a little cross-ruff in the minors. And I imagine we'll smash 5-any by righty and lead a club. But even these decisions aren't 100% clear to me, and I'm definitely unsure of what to do if LHO bids 5D (although that seems pretty weird, it's not out of the question).

[pooltuna]

for me this is a WTP pass but I made the assumption that partner has made a preemptive 4♠. Clearly the opponents have guessed wrong on a strain why should I give them another chance to get it right.

[wyman]

for me this is a WTP pass but I made the assumption that partner has made a preemptive 4♠. Clearly the opponents have guessed wrong on a strain why should I give them another chance to get it right.

 

it's 100% a preemptive 4S, in case that was in question.

[whereagles]

pass, wtp? The preempt did what it was supposed to do: it derailed opps.

[mike gill]

I'm with the passers. This isn't our hand and we're about to go plus at the 5-level and who knows what they can make in 5red.

[kayin801]

X seems super duper obvious. If W wanted to give an option of two places to play he/she would have bid 4NT, and it's very hard for E to pull on this auction.

 

Edit: OR W could have doubled again, OR with some sort of freak or really long suit E might have taken a bid at this point. Unless we're getting fixed by sketchy bidding, I can't imagine the auction doing anything but going P-P-P after our X. I would rather bid 5♠ than pass.

[benlessard]

I have never vote on BBO but anyone who suggest a X is getting a minus. Doubling here is #%$# clueless

[wyman]

I think disagreement with half of the posters in the thread is hardly reason to vote everyone's posts -1. But thanks for weighing in so dramatically.

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&s=sakt984h82dcqj984&d=e&v=0&b=14&a=p1sd4spp5cpp]133|200|

wyman asked...

w/w MP How close is this?

 

IMO

Quite close at pairs: P = 10, X = 8

At pairs there is a case for doubling the bid under you nose

[/hv]

[pooltuna]

I think disagreement with half of the posters in the thread is hardly reason to vote everyone's posts -1. But thanks for weighing in so dramatically.

 

Normally I would agree and try not to vote down other choices. I think a possible determining factor in the downvoting would be whether or not the suggested call is considered by the voter a logical alternative. I don't consider it a logical alternative and I let Ben do my downvoting :)

[Free]

I have never vote on BBO but anyone who suggest a X is getting a minus. Doubling here is #%$# clueless

It would be more useful to explain why it's so useless instead of downvoting everyone who thinks this is a reasonable choice. At least that would contribute to the discussion.

[gszes]

I think we are big favorites to make 5s BUT

I still think pass is right.

 

1. Can anyone really say we can beat 7 of a red suit

2. Can anyone say we can beat 6 of a red suit

 

the fact that we can set 5c is almost irrelvant--one

of the earliest things we learn about penalty x is to

not do it when opps (probably) have an easy place to

run to.

 

AT IMPS while we might be able to make 5s we have

zero clue just how much the opps can score against

us so it is insurance to pass and make sure the

damage is minimal.

 

At MP we are scoring a plus where 5c (no x) might

be going down more than either red suit with x

assuming opps can be set at all. We may not score a

top this way but odds are huge we wont score a

really bad score (not bad odds for a pure guess).