Tough competitive decison after t/o double

[bluecalm]

[hv=pc=n&s=s973hkjtd983c9752&d=e&v=n&b=2&a=2dp3hdp]133|200[/hv]

 

IMPs

 

2♦ is weak two in either major

3♥ is pass or correct

dbl is takeout.

 

What now ?

[jillybean]

pass

[P_Marlowe]

Pass.

 

Most of the time you have 2 trump tricks, so lets see, if p has 3 add.

tricks.

 

The alternative is 3NT, but the probability, that 3NT makes is lower than

the probability that 3H makes.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[bluecalm]

but the probability, that 3NT makes is lower than

the probability that 3H makes.

 

YEAHBUT... we are playing imps and if they make that's -530 while if we don't make it's often -100 or -200 so just because probability of them making is below 50% (or chances of our 3nt are below them going down) doesn't make pass a winner.

 

This is the problem from polish forum. Most of the people pass. I wouldn't. Still waiting for some more opinions before reconsidering :-)

[pooltuna]

pass>3NT>4♣>3♠

[MrAce]

Pass of course.

[han]

Pass.

[whereagles]

I'm going with 4♣ here. Don't fancy my chances vs 3♥ dbled.

[Phil]

Pass.

[gszes]

PASS

 

P hand will most likely have to produce all

of the tricks we are going to take on offense

so that means they have a hand that can expect

to take say 10 tricks (with short hearts) and

they x? not very likely. A much higher degree

of probability is they have a more reasonable

18 count or so and we have close to zero chance

of making anything and the opps are getting

hammered in 3h X. It will be exceedingly rare

the opps can make 3h and I would hazard a guess

it is probably less than 10% of the time.

[gnasher]

I'd pass. I expect 3NT or 4♣ to go about two down. If we lose 200 when we had +100 available, that costs 8 IMPs - the same as the cost of conceding 530 when it could have been only 200.

[bluecalm]

Bleh, maybe you guys are right and I am biased by knowing actual layout where doubler had powerful black 2 suiter and about 21hcp which made 4♠ comfortable and 3♥ making or going one down, can't remember now.

[dake50]

Did 3H claim 3-level pass or correct? That's my understanding.

Would partner wait to T/O Dbl if Spades was their correct suit?

I think 4S is on for us. Maybe partner tries for 6C.

I gots to slow him down. I try 3S.

[the hog]

Bleh, maybe you guys are right and I am biased by knowing actual layout where doubler had powerful black 2 suiter and about 21hcp which made 4♠ comfortable and 3♥ making or going one down, can't remember now.

 

Then I suspect the doubler misbid the hand. I would pass the double.

[inquiry]

Pass. And most people think I am not like most people, but guess this proves I am.

[OleBerg]

Pass.

 

Not that I love it, but 3NT is even worse than it appears at a glance. Of the few times it makes, partner will sometimes move on.

[mtvesuvius]

-530 is probably my smallest minus score. I pass.

[Finch]

Then I suspect the doubler misbid the hand. I would pass the double.

 

I think that's a bit harsh.

How do you want partner with a big black 2-suiter to bid the hand?

Unless you've agreed to play non-leaping Michaels in this position (which I doubt many people have), then

- he can't pass, he's vul against not and it might end the auction

- he can't bid 4H, that's natural

- he can't bid 3NT, that's natural

- if he has a 5-level drive he could bid 4NT and hope to survive, but that's very very messy

 

what do you want him to do, other than double?

[whereagles]

> what do you want him to do, other than double?

 

Well, the only thing I can think of is having 4♣ agreed as non-leaping michaels B-)

[MrAce]

I think that's a bit harsh.

How do you want partner with a big black 2-suiter to bid the hand?

Unless you've agreed to play non-leaping Michaels in this position ....

what do you want him to do, other than double?

 

If i am not wrong, b4 leaping michaels cue over a weak 2 was being used for strong 2 suiters (any 2 suiter). So even if we play 3♦ cue as stopper asking and have no leaping michaels agreement, you cant go wrong with 4♦ bid over 2♦.

 

This allows u to play your 4 major (if there is a fit) at 4 level and 5♣, only thing that comes to my mind can be missing is 3NT, but we would have missed it had we played leaping michaels anyway.