rduran1216 Posted June 10, 2011 Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 [hv=pc=n&w=sk74h74daq532c632&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=pp1sp1np2hp4hppp]133|200[/hv] pick a lead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrAce Posted June 10, 2011 Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 I think they have at least 5-4 or 6-4 ♥ fit, i am not leading trump. That leaves me with a minor lead, and i choose ♣. But my leads always suck so if u go with opposite of what i just said, u will probably find the correct lead :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSGibson Posted June 10, 2011 Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 Matchpoints I'd lead a trump every time. Imps I'd think about the ♦A, trying to maybe force S to use his trump entries before the spades are set up...It would be very close in my mind between that and a trump, and I think I might talk myself into it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted June 10, 2011 Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 I'd lead a trump. I'd almost say that there's no need to look at your hand first. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrAce Posted June 10, 2011 Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 Call me stubburn but i am still not convinced. This is not a situation where responder showed a preference on 2nd suit. He raised and he made an unexpected raise. On the other hand declarer is known to hold AT LEAST 5 ♠ and i dont know how long are u planning to stop him establishing his long suit with Kxx ♠ Andy ? Put yourself in declarer's shoes, u have 5-4 or 6-4 fit + a side 5 or 6 card suit, wouldn't you be happy when they lead trump ? Especially when trumps are 2-2 and they can only play 1 more time ? Of course if they are playing to a 4-4 fit, trump lead could be killer, and its a possibility, but i doubt thats the case. Don't get me wrong, i am not saying what u lead is wrong, but i am not convinced that it is as auto as you see it Andy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted June 10, 2011 Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 Since it's a problem posted on BBF, a small ♦ must be correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrAce Posted June 10, 2011 Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 Since it's a problem posted on BBF, a small ♦ must be correct. Heh, you maybe right :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluecalm Posted June 10, 2011 Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 I'd lead a trump. I'd almost say that there's no need to look at your hand first. ??Looks like basic stuff to me. Declarer's plan will be to draw trumps and establish spades which gives him more than enough winners as we can see that spades are breaking. We should take our minor suit winners before it happens.♣ looks the best to me, but A♦ could also be right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted June 10, 2011 Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 Why should we assume that dummy has five or six hearts? In this auction dummy often has only four hearts, together with a singleton spade. Even if dummy has five trumps, if declarer has to ruff three times in dummy and draw two rounds, that will exhaust dummy's trumps, so the discard on the long spade is of no use to declarer. If dummy has five trumps and the spades set up with two ruffs, that still gives declarer only two discards, so it will usually only matter if he needs to be able to discard from dummy's 3-card suit. One advantage of the trump lead is that it may induce declarer to take a spade finesse. If declarer has AQxxx opposite a singleton, and thinks that he can't arrange to ruff three times in dummy, he may take a spade finesse. He doesn't know that the king is ruffing down, and if it's a 9-card fit he doesn't know that trumps are 2-2. And it's not as though the minor-suit leads are a sure route to success - a diamond lead could trivially cost the contract, and a club might hit dummy's length and wreck partner's holding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanoi5 Posted June 10, 2011 Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 I think the bidding sequence calls for a trump lead. I'd even say it looks like a text-book sequence to show a trump lead is called for. Leading anything else might be good, but probably in very particular situations. For example, not leading a trump might make declarer think we hold an honour in the suit, so maybe he'll finesse into partner. Leading a small diamond might fetch Kx from partner. Leading a club might get us an early 'through-dummy's-strength'. I would have chosen the ♣3 as my lead if I felt... 'creative'. The thing is that all those ideas are fantasies and might work every once in a while but a trump lead will get us a good result more often than not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted June 10, 2011 Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 I'd lead a trump. I'd almost say that there's no need to look at your hand first.Well I would look first, but I agree a trump. 1NT followed by 4♥ sounds like a hand that got better after opener's rebid, which means a ruffing value. Opener is two suited so he also has shortness. Overall it sounds like a crossruff. Since it's a problem posted on BBF, a small ♦ must be correct.Close, ♦A and another :lol: ??Looks like basic stuff to me. Declarer's plan will be to draw trumps and establish spades which gives him more than enough winners as we can see that spades are breaking. We should take our minor suit winners before it happens.♣ looks the best to me, but A♦ could also be right.I can understand this approach at matchpoints to save overtricks. But if I want to beat this contract, I am trying a trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluecalm Posted June 10, 2011 Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 The thing is that all those ideas are fantasies and might work every once in a while but a trump lead will get us a good result more often than not. It's amazing that you could be so sure to call standard idea of taking our winners before declarer establish his long suit a "fantasy".Even in double dummy simulation (assuming dummy has 0-2♠, and either 4hearts with 10-11hcp or 5hearts with 8+hcp or 6hearts with 5+hcp and declarer has 5-4/5-5 or 6-4 in majors) club lead has significant edge but remember that in double dummy play declarer always get the trumps right anyway which is not true in real play and which is an argument against trump lead. I'd even say it looks like a text-book sequence to show a trump lead is called for. I would say: weak pattern recognition. Looks like texbook example for aggressive lead. Opponents showed 5+ card suit on the way to their game with 8+ trumps. Even if dummy has five trumps, if declarer has to ruff three times in dummy and draw two rounds, that will exhaust dummy's trumps, so the discard on the long spade is of no use to declarer. If dummy has five trumps and the spades set up with two ruffs, that still gives declarer only two discards, so it will usually only matter if he needs to be able to discard from dummy's 3-card suit. I can't prove it but intuitively the most common scenario is spade setting up with either one ruff or without any (dummy has 2 of them or declare has enough high cards so he needs only one ruff in dummy, for example AQJxx to x). 2 spades in dummy and 3 in partner's hand also looks like the most common layout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted June 10, 2011 Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 I would lead a club Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P_Marlowe Posted June 10, 2011 Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 Hi, 1NT was (semi-) forcing? I am not sure, the auction cries for an agressive lead, so I would try togo passive, i.e. lead a trump. The Ace is the alternative. With kind regardsMarlowe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted June 10, 2011 Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 I can't prove it but intuitively the most common scenario is spade setting up with either one ruff or without any (dummy has 2 of them or declare has enough high cards so he needs only one ruff in dummy, for example AQJxx to x). 2 spades in dummy and 3 in partner's hand also looks like the most common layout. With AQJxx opposite a singleton, he needs two ruffs, not one. Is a doubleton spade in dummy really very common? If dummy is 24xx, presumably he was planning to show an invitational balanced hand. Isn't that what 1♠-1NT;2♥-3♥ shows? OK, I know that some balanced hands will have improved to the extent that they're worth game, but most balanced invitations will still be balanced invitations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluecalm Posted June 10, 2011 Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 With AQJxx opposite a singleton, he needs two ruffs, not one. I was thinking one ruff and one spade lost. Is a doubleton spade in dummy really very common? If dummy is 24xx, presumably he was planning to show an invitational balanced hand. Isn't that what 1♠-1NT;2♥-3♥ shows This is very difficult as in standard 2♥ rebid is basically in 11-17hcp range so 3♥ sometimes has to be bid with 8. That's why with 10-11 I think many people would consider 4♥ especially with good values. Maybe my assumptions are a bit too loose but still i can't imagine it changes too much. Imo most of dummy range has 2-5 or 1-5 majors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pooltuna Posted June 10, 2011 Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 without any great conviction I'l bite for a trump lead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrAce Posted June 10, 2011 Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 Why should we assume that dummy has five or six hearts? In this auction dummy often has only four hearts, together with a singleton spade. No, not even close to "often" but yes it is a possibility. Its very optimistic to think that someone hoped to 4 with only 4 trumps and no support to his pd's side suit, unless he has a decent side of himself. With AQJxx opposite a singleton, he needs two ruffs, not one. You are defending 4♥ Andy, not 6 ♥, he doesn't have to establish his suit w/o giving any. Again, you maybe correct with trump lead, i just think it is neither "auto" nor they are in 4-4 fit "often". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 10, 2011 Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 Trump at IMPs, club at MPs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduran1216 Posted June 10, 2011 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 it is MP, I led a club. Dummy tabled xKJ10xK987xKxx a trump lead is devastating. turns out partner holds QJ109 of clubs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted June 10, 2011 Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 It'd be a club for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanoi5 Posted June 10, 2011 Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 a trump lead is devastating. Devastating. I hope it's not a language/logic thing but, devastatiing to declarer or the defense? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduran1216 Posted June 10, 2011 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 Devastating. I hope it's not a language/logic thing but, devastatiing to declarer or the defense? declarer has Q109xxAQxxJAxx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hatchett Posted June 10, 2011 Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 declarer has Q109xxAQxxJAxx Seems to me that both a ♣ lead and a ♥ lead mean one off if that was the layout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benlessard Posted June 10, 2011 Report Share Posted June 10, 2011 If 1Nt is forcing it mean responder can easily have just 4H and extra value wich make a H lead clearcut. If 1Nt is not forcing then i responder is almost sure to have 5H wich mean a club lead is probably as good as a trumps. Your hoping partner got a slow trick in club that will disappear on the 4 or 5th spades. Just saw that its a passed hand so im leading clubs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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