BBO makeable slams - #02

[inquiry]

Beginner/Intermediate hand to answer -- only novice, beginners, and intermediates should post replies before before september 19th Thank you for giving them a chance to discover the right play among themselves.

 

I have started a series of threads on slams that can make, but went down in bridgebase online games. Most will be in the interesting thread section, but some, like this one, that illustrate basic play prinicples will be posted here in the beginner/intermediate forum. This hand from may 8, 2004, had mixed results in slam, some made, some down. See how you do.

 

[hv=d=n&v=n&n=sjhakjt9dt874ck64&s=sak6h5dakj5caj953]133|200|Scoring: IMP

1♥ - 2♣

2♥ - 3♦

4♣ - 4♠ *

5♦! - 6NT

Pass

 

3♦ = Reverse, stong hand

4♠ = kickback form of RKCB

5♦ = two keycards, no club queen[/hv]

 

Opening lead ♥8.

[twcho]

Ben, do u really mean this hand for beginner and intermediate? I consider this even too difficult for me and I regard myself being advanced player. :-((

[blover]

I hope i'm qualifed as intermediate player, so i will answer this one:

Win ♥A, then finesse ♣J, if i can win 5 ♣ tricks i need only 3 tricks in ♦, otherwise i will try to get all 4 ♦ tricks

[paulhar]

Ben, do u really mean this hand for beginner and intermediate? I consider this even too difficult for me and I regard myself being advanced player. :-((

I agree :rolleyes: I have a line but I have no clue whether it's best.

[badderzboy]

♠ J

♥ AKJT9

♦ T874

♣ K64

 

♠ AK6

♥ 5

♦ AKJ5

♣ AJ953

 

I'm a BILlie so I'll have a go...

 

My top tricks are AK♠, AK♥, AK♦,AK♣ so I need to create 4 extra tricks.

 

West has lead the 8♥ so I'd be sure that East has the Q :unsure: as the 8 can't be 4th highest just passive and probably top of nothing.

 

We can afford to lose 1 trick in the minors :rolleyes: and make four extra tricks and we can do this if only 1 finesse loses and the clubs break better than 4-1 with the Singleton being Q or 10 as we cash the King clubs first.

 

We can be pretty certain one finesse will lose from the passive lead.

 

We are short of entries to the north hand so we need to take the Diamond finesse

first by playing the 4♦ after winning with A♥ to the Jack.

 

If the finesse wins then cash a top diamond and if both follow cash the other preserving 10 [R-DI] as an entry.

 

We can now play the 9 Clubs from south and cover West's card or run 9 if he doesn't. We can then make the remaining clubs after cashing KC on next round I hope?

 

If the ♦ finesse loses then we need to play Clubs for 5 tricks. Cash K Clubs and finesse to J and then A.

 

Anywhere near :huh:

[EricK]

Ben, do u really mean this hand for beginner and intermediate? I consider this even too difficult for me and I regard myself being advanced player. :-((

I agree :rolleyes: I have a line but I have no clue whether it's best.

I disagree.

 

I think this is an excellent problem for Intermediates. It involves a technique which is easy to understand, yet widely applicable.

 

A problem which is suitable for this forum is not one which the most of the intended audience can solve, but one which the audience can learn from.

 

Eric

[Flame]

If i understand corectly,the hands Ben is posing are hands he went down, meaning its a hand even an expert can go down playing. This one im pretty sure i know the right line, but im not sure i would play it right at the table.

[inquiry]

If i understand corectly,the hands Ben is posing are hands he went down, meaning its a hand even an expert can go down playing. This one im pretty sure i know the right line, but im not sure i would play it right at the table.

These are hands that I found on BBO, the vast majority of them I did not play. I actually kibitz more than I play, and I look at hands after they were played where I didn't kibitz more than I kibitz.

 

And I think Eric is exactly right with his comments. Many people went down on this one, and yet, it really is quite simple to come up with a "best" line, at least imho. But who knows? I guess all plays can be hard until you see the trick.

 

This one will be too hard for beginners, but I think (thought?) intermediates would have a shot at it, especially with the subtitle hint.

 

Ben

[Flame]

Its not a classical combining chances problem, it has entry problems. I wonder if those who think they solved it including Ben, have the same line. I would guess they dont.

Also its intresting to see if the play would change after a spade lead (with Q on RHO)

[Fluffy]

I am not really sure, but I don´t believe ♥8 at all so my line is:

 

♥J, if it loses try later ♦AK if ♦Q appears bare or doubleton amke 2♠, 4♥, 4♦, 2♣. If it doesn´t try ♣3-2 with ♣Q onside.

 

If ♥J wins try ♣ to the ♣J, and combine the chancees in red suits then.

[luke warm]

first of all, i agree that this might not be a beginner's problem (maybe even an intermediate's)...

 

i can't find any squeeze, cause of entries, though a spade diamond on rho and spade club on lho looks like it's almost there... hell i don't know, i guess i'd play the ♥A,K, the ♦A,K, then (if no good news) finesse the club

 

i'll get some more coffee and look again

[EricK]

first of all, i agree that this might not be a beginner's problem (maybe even an intermediate's)...

 

i can't find any squeeze, cause of entries, though a spade diamond on rho and spade club on lho looks like it's almost there... hell i don't know, i guess i'd play the ♥A,K, the ♦A,K, then (if no good news) finesse the club

 

i'll get some more coffee and look again

With that line, if there is no good news, you are already a trick short even if the ♣ behave (2♠, 2♥, 2♦, 5♣).

 

Counting your tricks is a habit which everyone should have!

 

Eric

[inquiry]

Flame's general line is correct. Here is the logix.

 

1) Hearts is a source of a lot of tricks. Play to set them up. Either hook the jack now (at trick one), or win the ACE and continue them. I like the hook ok. This will give you four sure tricks. West wins and returns a spade. You have to win the ACE.

 

2) With playing hearts you have 4H + 2C +2D +2S, that is 10 tricks, so you need two more.

 

3) You will need to finessee one of the minor queens (but not both). So the theory here is cash the AK in one of them before (eventually) trying the other. Generally you would cash the diamond ACE (singleton Queen in either hand will give you 12 tricks). Then, if nothing intersting happened. You have to decide whether to cash a second diamond or to cash the club ace. After cashing the second minor suit winner if your hand, you cross the to the club king. This way, you make if either opponent has a doubleton in the minor suit you cashed, and if not, after running the hearts, you will finessee the queen in the second suit.

 

Ben

[mpefritz]

Ben, if someone wins the ♥AK, then leds the J, won by EAST/WEST who then returns another heart, you MUST make up your mind too early on which minor suit to play for 4 tricks! (pitch a spade and club on the 2nd and 3rd heart). therefore MUST hook at trick 1. see below.

 

My thoughts:

 

Play the ♥J.

If it loses, win any return in hand , including a club return! (or

heart on board). Cash one top diamond (do NOT tell me ♦9 shows

up..I don't want to hear about it...so I close my eyes and ask if Q

showed up), 2 top spades, CLUB A, CLUB K.

If the neither minor suit queen has shown up, cash remaining hearts,

saving diamonds (unless someone pitches highest black card).

Now hook in diamonds, leading the T if the 9 had already shown up.

I don't think I would object to playing AK of diamonds first, but on club return, I think you lose than luxury.

 

If ♥J WINS, lead ♥ T, pitching a spade. If ♥T loses and a

heart is returned, pitch a club. otherwise play as above.

 

If ♥T wins and someone started with 5 (my least favorite choice of

happenings), now I am not sure whether a club hook or diamond hook is

best now. Here I think hooking in clubs makes sense as the club K is

another entry to hook in diamonds. It also gives me a chance to make 4 club tricks even if first round hook loses.

 

fritz

 

(this is how I see it.)

[Flame]

Flame's general line is correct. Here is the logix.

It was my line but i didnt post it, fluffy did. :)

btw blover's line is not too bad either, but one need to see that getting 3 diamond tricks isnt ovious, because of the entry problem.

[luke warm]

first of all, i agree that this might not be a beginner's problem (maybe even an intermediate's)...

 

i can't find any squeeze, cause of entries, though a spade diamond on rho and spade club on lho looks like it's almost there... hell i don't know, i guess i'd play the ♥A,K, the ♦A,K, then (if no good news) finesse the club

 

i'll get some more coffee and look again

With that line, if there is no good news, you are already a trick short even if the ♣ behave (2♠, 2♥, 2♦, 5♣).

 

Counting your tricks is a habit which everyone should have!

 

Eric

and drinking coffee.. and waking up... and not posting till at least one of those things has been done... thx, you're right

[badderzboy]

I sort of see the logic but aren't you pinning hopes by playing the J♥ that the opps are lying i.e. 8 is a passive lead. You still need the Q to be in at worst a trebleton so it drops under AK which is pretty poor odds (it must be less than 50%). given there are 7 outstanding.

 

Whereas the finesse of Q♦ and/or Q♣ is slightly less than a 75% shot combined (needs East not to have Qxxx)?

 

Playing for the drop of a Q is also less than 50% in each case with Clubs more likely to drop the Queen than Diamonds?

 

I'm obviously going wrong somewhere in the analysis as the 'xperts all do something different - can you correct me please :rolleyes:

 

Steve

[EricK]

I sort of see the logic but aren't you pinning hopes by playing the J♥ that the opps are lying i.e. 8 is a passive lead. You still need the Q to be in at worst a trebleton so it drops under AK which is pretty poor odds (it must be less than 50%). given there are 7 outstanding.

 

Whereas the finesse of Q♦ and/or Q♣ is slightly less than a 75% shot combined (needs East not to have Qxxx)?

 

Playing for the drop of a Q is also less than 50% in each case with Clubs more likely to drop the Queen than Diamonds?

 

I'm obviously going wrong somewhere in the analysis as the 'xperts all do something different - can you correct me please :rolleyes:

 

Steve

What tricks are we trying to make?

 

On top, we have AK in every suit. That is 8, so we need 4 more. If we can find the Q in either minor suit, we will get 2 more tricks, and the long hearts are another 2 tricks.

 

We can't make the long ♥ without giving up the lead once (unless we are lucky and drop the Q). So we have to do that first, before we have set up any more tricks for the opps.

 

Once we have driven out the ♥Q, we turn our attention to the minor suits. We could take a guess as to which finesse to take, and if we are right (50% of the time) that would give us the contract. But if we are wrong, we are down straight away.

 

By first playing the AK in the other minor suit, we significantly add to this percentage, because if we drop the Q, we make our contract, and if we don't we can still try the finesse.

 

Is that clearer?

 

Eric

[badderzboy]

Could sometime show us the combined odds of each line including why playing both finesses in the minors (and minor with successful finesse not 4-1) is poorer than playing out the Hearts followed by AK 1 minor and finesse in the other?

 

I know there is 27% chance of honour being doubleton when 5 cards out and 5.66% chance it is singleton so 32.66% chance of dropping Q in either suit?

 

 

This is somewhat intriguing to me as a newish player with a statistics background?

 

Steve

[Fluffy]

This hand has an interesting flaw, I don´t see any kind of line that will end up with 11 top tricks and 1 loser, therefore there is no possible standard squeeze at all.

[paulhar]

Ben, if someone wins the ♥AK, then leds the J, won by EAST/WEST who then returns another heart, you MUST make up your mind too early on which minor suit to play for 4 tricks! (pitch a spade and club on the 2nd and 3rd heart). therefore MUST hook at trick 1. see below.

Yes, you make up your mind, but since the chances are about equal, it doesn't matter. You still have the chance for queen doubleton of diamonds.

 

Play AK of hearts (no doubleton queen), jack. Opponents take queen and play another heart. You pitch a diamond, a club, and a spade. Now, you can cash AK of diamonds and if the queen is doubleton or singleton, you pick up the suit. Otherwise you need four the club tricks. I think this is better because the lead makes Qx of hearts more likely than Qxx onside.

 

However, a problem comes if RHO has queen fifth of hearts and ducks a heart. Now you still have to set it up and have to pitch a second diamond from hand. Now you have to give up on the queen singleton of diamonds.

[twcho]

Why I said the hand is too complicated before is not because the hand is too difficult to play but there are so many logical lines to choose from and it is very difficult (if not impossible) for anyone to calculate the best line.

 

E.g. As Paul suggested above, East can strip the declarer's option when he wins the 3rd H and return a C. Now declarer can't test the D before resorting to finesse in C.

 

Alternatively, you can play the small H on the 1st trick and if it wins, you can continue with another small H. By doing this, since you discard a S on the 2nd H, your option in the minors will remain intact. If East return a C, you can just cash both minor Aces and then go to dummy with CK. But this line gives up the possibility of dropping singleton or doubleton HQ which the chance cannot be overlooked.

 

Another possible line is to try to finesse on 1st H trick and if it holds, you can try to cash the top H to pinch down the Q but this line suffers from the same drawback that your option in minors will be reduced.

 

Actually my gut feeling for the best line of play is not setting up dummy's H but rather take the 1st H with HA or K and play a small D to J. This line will win whenever east hold DQ or Qx or Qxx because you will have a second entry to dummy in D to establish your H (So 2S, 4H, 4D and 2C). This amounts up to 68%*0.5+28%*0.1=36.7%. If east doesn't hold the above D holdings, you still have chance to test the H with possibility of bringing down singleton or doubleton Q (I didn't include the HQ in my previous calculation for East D holdings) or with these fails but finding East with CQx or Qxx. All this will add up to (100%-36.7%)*(30.5%*2/7+0.5%+90.8%*34%)=25.3%. So the total chance of success for this line of play is 62%.