( WTB ) Who To "Blam"

[TWO4BRIDGE]

E/W missed 6S+1 slam

3CX-3

- 11.2 IMPs instead of + 4.0 for slam

 

[hv=pc=n&w=skt74h6da972caj96&e=saqj653ha9dkqj3c5&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=3cdppp]266|200[/hv]

[MrAce]

E/W missed 6S+1 slam

3CX-3

- 11.2 IMPs instead of + 4.0 for slam

 

[hv=pc=n&w=skt74h6da972caj96&e=saqj653ha9dkqj3c5&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=3cdppp]266|200[/hv]

 

% 100 West since they would still be screwed by the west's pass if East had a perfect 4441 or 5440 shape for DBL with same strength.

[Hanoi5]

West.

 

4♣ is the correct bid by him I'd say.

[dake50]

East is way too offensive for X - leaving the option to convert.

Esp with spades.

I'd start 4C, rebid 4S.

[han]

Two reasonable decisions leading to a poor result.

 

I might have bid 4S with the east hand. I would have passed with the west hand.

[nigel_k]

West 70%.

 

I prefer 4♠ with East, but West's pass is worse than East's double.

[Phil]

I sympathize with West's pass, but the colors are clearly wrong for converting.

 

East has a tricky hand to bid, but I think I would double every time with it.

[JLOGIC]

I would insta pass with the west hand every time

[cloa]

I would insta pass with the west hand every time

I would be glad to play against you to get multiple tops. West's hand is absolute perfect to cue clubs, lots of controls tick, vulnerable against not tick, 4 of a major tick, so many clubs that partner must be short tick.

[aguahombre]

I would be glad to play against you to get multiple tops.

:) Let this one slide, guys. He doesn't know.

[ARTjoMS]

What south had in ♥?

[Bbradley62]

:) Let this one slide, guys. He doesn't know.

If Cloa is Cloa513, this is a mild comment for him.

[JLOGIC]

I would be glad to play against you to get multiple tops. West's hand is absolute perfect to cue clubs, lots of controls tick, vulnerable against not tick, 4 of a major tick, so many clubs that partner must be short tick.

 

Luckily we are not playing matchpoints, so you can't get a top from me!

 

It is no wonder people preempt so aggressively white against red, the vulnerability is favorable for them to do so, and even when they're nailed people will not pass because "omg we're r/w!"

 

A) Why is everyone assuming we make a game? If we force beyond 3N there is no safety that we make anything, partner will often have only 3 spades, and even if he has 4 spades we will be getting overruffed on our right, and things will often not split well, and we have horrible trumps. Everyone is seeing some sure game, I'm seeing a poorly placed 12 count with 4 bad spades and bad splits, that is no sure game.

 

B) Even if we have a game, who cares? We likely have 4 tricks against 3C X. +300 against a game would be bad but it seems unlikely. +500 vs a game is ok compensation for the times we do not make game and get a nice plus score.

 

C) Think positive people! People are preempting more aggressively w/r. The opponents will often have only 6 clubs. 800 or 1100 is very much in the game if we are cold for a game. Partner could have a doubleton club, maybe even some kind of Qx, and we will massacre them. It seems like a flaw that no one ever thinks they can get 1100 at r/w, certainly we might! We will often be getting 800.

 

As far as I'm concerned the 2 main downsides of passing are +300 vs a game (possible, but not that likely), or more likely, missing a slam. Missing a slam is a disaster, but this was unlucky, partner was doubling and bidding SPADES not hearts, so we don't even get any kind of adequate penalty. Oh well, I'm still always passing this and hoping for either a bonanza or a plus against no game. People will keep preempting you forever when they're w/r if you will not pass with these kinds of hands. Go after them!

[MrAce]

We have 2 celebrities in BBF. Fred and Justin. 2 great players. And i already got my share from Fred today in another topic. One would think i got my lesson. But noooo...

 

And now i disagree with Justin, not only that but also i am about to reply to his comments. Taking the risk of being laughed by USA's most popular and recent bridge god. ( Go easy on me Justin :) )

 

 

 

Why is everyone assuming we make a game? If we force beyond 3N there is no safety that we make anything

 

Maybe because pd doubled and we have 12 hcps with probably fit in 2 of his suits with no wasted honor vs his VERY likely stiff ? And that pd may actually have a giant with long ♠ or ♦? And that we are the ones who is thinking positive ?

 

 

If you believe anything over 3 NT is not safe, then why not bid 3 nt ? You say 500 vs 620 is ok, then i think 600 vs a 500 or 800 must be ok too, no ? This way you insure not to miss a slam if pd has a huge hand with ♠ or ♦ and still make game at least if he has huge hand with ♥.

 

 

As far as I'm concerned the 2 main downsides of passing are +300 vs a game (possible, but not that likely), or more likely, missing a slam. Missing a slam is a disaster, but this was unlucky, partner was doubling and bidding SPADES not hearts, so we don't even get any kind of adequate penalty.

 

And what happens if pd was doubling and bidding ♥ ? Okay, lets flip the majors of pd and make him have AQJxxx♥ and Ax♠. Now you could get more in defense with pass but that doesnt change the fact that we probably still can make slam.

 

I understand the advice on agressivity of people when they are white vs red, i also understand bidding on and going down will even more encourage them, but passing and getting 500 when cold for slam or grandslam ain't gonna discourage them either.

 

 

 

 

C) Think positive people!

 

Ahha !!

 

 

Why is everyone assuming we make a game? If we force beyond 3N there is no safety that we make anything, partner will often have only 3 spades, and even if he has 4 spades we will be getting overruffed on our right, and things will often not split well, and we have horrible trumps. Everyone is seeing some sure game, I'm seeing a poorly placed 12 count with 4 bad spades and bad splits, that is no sure game.

 

I am confused :unsure:

[JLOGIC]

I am not a bridge god or celebrity.

 

You say we have 12 HCP as if this is some great amount, as far as I know partner will X 3C with a 3541 11 count routinely, or something similar. 12 is not some magical amount that makes game cold.

 

You say we have 2 likely fits, I'm not sure why that is, my partner does not usually have 4 spades and 4 diamonds when I have a stiff heart. There is a distinct chance partner has 3 spades, and that will be bad for me, I definitely do not want to try playing 5 diamonds opposite most takeout doubles.

 

Partner might even have a normal 3442 14 count or something, the opponents preempted w/r, they will usually have 6 clubs not 7, this leaves a lot of room for partner to have a doubleton club. Of course if I had to bet, I would bet he had a stiff, but if he does have something like that I will crush 3C X and probably not make any game.

 

You say we have no wasted values, the club jack looks pretty wasted, and of course having the ace of clubs as opposed to some other ace is bad.

 

On top of that, you do not mention anything about the suits being likely to split badly, and the usual line of ruffing clubs/cross ruffing not being very good with RHO overruffing dummy.

 

Again, when all of these things are happening, having marginal values like 22, 23, 24, 25 HCP is not great.

 

Of course I think that we are likely to have a game, but I know that we have a good plus score in 3C X, and I do not know that we have a game, even if game is making 80 % of the time I will be happy to take my profit to the bank that 20 % of the time that it is down.

 

In situations like this I consistently see people not passing because "the colors are wrong." They automatically think partner has a stiff club, and a great hand, and 4 spades, and our game is cold, and we will only beat them 300, and we might have a slam. I think this thinking is erroneous.

 

I am not really making any new points to my last post, I simply think that game is down often enough and/or we get 1100 often enough to compensate for missing a slam or getting 300 vs 620. I don't really think it's close, but of course I could be wrong, I would have been on this hand! That is just my judgement, I am happy with a largish plus score right here.

[MrAce]

Fair enough. Thank you justin. :)

[cherdano]

ATB: [hv=pc=n&w=skt74h6da972caj96&e=sa9haqj753dkqj3c5&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=3cdp4cp5hppp]266|200[/hv]

Well, at least 5♥ made. But that was a small consolation for the 800-1100 available against 3♣X.

[pooltuna]

mostly just bad luck. If you must blame someone then West for having too many controls :)

[pooltuna]

:) Let this one slide, guys. He doesn't know.

 

Only if you sew tongues back on, cause I will have to bite mine off :)

[mgoetze]

What I haven't really figured out from the comments here: is 4♣ merely a bit worse than passing or is it really bad? I would have thought it showed some playability in both majors or an even stronger hand, and my alternative to pass would be 4♠ (or maybe 3NT?).

[han]

I say I would pass with the west hand, and suddenly everybody passes. That's what fame does for you.

[bluecalm]

I agree that W looks like insta pass at imps. Seems like we are collecting 500 quite often and sometimes game doesnt make = +EV.

4♣ is crazy. I would prefer to bid 3NT if anything, this looks like the most likely game.

As to E I don't know. 4♠ looks normal, but you never know what works in those auctions and what's the best way to bid.

[Phil]

ATB: [hv=pc=n&w=skt74h6da972caj96&e=sa9haqj753dkqj3c5&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=3cdp4cp5hppp]266|200[/hv]

Well, at least 5♥ made. But that was a small consolation for the 800-1100 available against 3♣X.

 

Takes some imagination to get to 5♥ here I think.

[aguahombre]

ATB: [hv=pc=n&w=skt74h6da972caj96&e=sa9haqj753dkqj3c5&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=3cdp4cp5hppp]266|200[/hv]

Well, at least 5♥ made. But that was a small consolation for the 800-1100 available against 3♣X.

Yeh, was thinking about posting a reverse of the majors. But figured that would bring in collateral discussion about East and the danger of doubling with that hand for fear of spade advances.

 

But the point being made by Cherdano still applies to many hands where double is the only option for East. (say, same high-cards but with 3-4-4-2).

[gnasher]

What I haven't really figured out from the comments here: is 4♣ merely a bit worse than passing or is it really bad? I would have thought it showed some playability in both majors or an even stronger hand, and my alternative to pass would be 4♠ (or maybe 3NT?).

 

4♣ shows two (or three) places to play. That will often be both majors, but it could also be one major and diamonds. The sequences 4♣-4♦-4♠ and 4♣-4♥-4♠ show four spades and four or more diamonds.

 

One of the reasons for passing is that although it's likely that we can make game, we may not get to the right one: we could bid 3NT and risk not having enough tricks, or bid 4♠ and risk not having enough trumps, or bid 4♣ and risk having to play at the five-level opposite 3541 or even 3442.