Hanoi5 Posted May 12, 2011 Report Share Posted May 12, 2011 Say you got to 6♣ with no interference from the oppoenents in the bidding: ♠K8742♥A842♦K6♣A9 ♠3♥K96♦AJ♣KQT8654 Let's say they lead the ♥J (even though dummy mentioned the suit). Let's say it's not a singleton, though that may spoil the fun. What is the best route to 12 tricks: a. Duck a spade and trump two of them, expecting to win when the spade Ace is singleton, doubleton or tripleton.b. Play a spade to the K and if it loses try to set up spades using the club finesse (small to the 9) as an additional entry.c. Something else? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted May 12, 2011 Report Share Posted May 12, 2011 (edited) Line A works when ♠A is singleton, doubleton or trebleton, which is (1/7 * 7 + 2/7 * 30 + 3/7 * 62) = 36% Line B works when LHO has ♠K, plus half of the time that spades are 4-3 with ♠K offside, and gets a bit more for accidentally picking up 4=0 trumpsSince the finesse is 50%, it's clearly better. If Line A allowed you to pick up ♠Axxx, I think it would be slightly better. Edited May 12, 2011 by gnasher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted May 12, 2011 Report Share Posted May 12, 2011 spade to the king also gives you squeeze chances when hearts are 5-1. But a spade ducked gives them an inmediate ruff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloa513 Posted May 13, 2011 Report Share Posted May 13, 2011 Supposing you win the J♥ in hand, what does RHO play? Obviously the J can't be from 6 cards otherwise your most likely down on the lead. The odds would be to eliminate at least one club and not even consider finessing to the 9♣- someone want to confirm that. 5-1 break in hearts isn't that unlikely- if its 5-1 then chances are that you'll pick up the Q♥ and decide to finesses in hearts. This discounts the unlikely lead of Jxxx without the 10 and RHO dropping the Q to confuse things. If you pick up the Q, you certainly have to eliminate all defence's trumps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
menggq Posted May 13, 2011 Report Share Posted May 13, 2011 line b for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benlessard Posted May 17, 2011 Report Share Posted May 17, 2011 i dont think its easy for west to play low when i play low to king at trick 2. Does my bidding show a S control or a H fragment ? If its a pure math problem low to K win, but IRL its a different story. 1 - the lead is fishy 2- West going to hop a fair amount etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted May 21, 2011 Report Share Posted May 21, 2011 Play the spade first, then think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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