3 or 4

[ARTjoMS]

[hv=pc=n&s=sakqjt3h5d76ckt86&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=3d]133|200|Pair tournament[/hv]

 

I bring this here from local forum, where the most respected players said that 4♠ is the bid. Is it?

[bluecalm]

Close one imo. 4♠ at imps seems clear. At MP's looks like a toss-up to me.

I might bid 4♠ because they are very unlikely to double me and they could have 130 available in diamonds. I would hate to bid 3♠ now and find myself in reopening spot after 4♦ from LHO.

[whereagles]

4♠ rates to be the percentage bid in the long run.

[ArtK78]

This problem would be a good one for a simulation.

 

The problem is not just whether you will make 4♠ more often than not. The problem also is whether partner might act over 4♠ and get the partnership too high.

[ARTjoMS]

This problem would be a good one for a simulation.

 

It is not about 4♠ making or not, it is about whether we have 10 tricks after it goes Pass-Pass-Pass, respectively partner passes.

 

I dislike ♦ xx, opponents will lead there and if partner doesn't have singleton (in which case he is likely to act anyway), there should be 2 fast losers. Of course he cannot imagine that we have that good ♠ suit. But we are 5421 13-count. I think this is clear 3♠, if we have 4♠ partner will bid them most of the time anyway. And it keeps 3NT in picture.

[pooltuna]

I prefer 3♠ to 4♠ not that 4♠ causes me a lot of heartburn. One advantage to 3♠ is that you generally have about this HCP when you call at the 3 level and partner will not get overexcited plus he may be able to call 3NT which rates to play reasonably well.

[jillybean]

I have an intelligent partner, 3♠

[Fluffy]

MPs don't go over 3NT if you don't need to

[Phil]

3 and its not close.

[Phil]

It is not about 4♠ making or not, it is about whether we have 10 tricks after it goes Pass-Pass-Pass, respectively partner passes.

 

I dislike ♦ xx, opponents will lead there and if partner doesn't have singleton (in which case he is likely to act anyway), there should be 2 fast losers. Of course he cannot imagine that we have that good ♠ suit. But we are 5421 13-count. I think this is clear 3♠, if we have 4♠ partner will bid them most of the time anyway. And it keeps 3NT in picture.

 

Hi, welcome to the forums. A few suggestions (hopefully friendly):

 

1. Don't post a 'problem' and then four posts later start justifying your position. We are all (well, most, I hope) in search of the truth here, and not trying to lobby for one bid.

 

2. I think your namesake understands that a sim would have to consider all types of hands (and their relative constraints) that are passing 3♠ and we make 10 tricks.

[whereagles]

1. This problem would be a good one for a simulation.

 

2. The problem is not just whether you will make 4♠ more often than not. The problem also is whether partner might act over 4♠ and get the partnership too high.

 

1. Not the best sim available, but here it goes (out of 10000 hands)

 

0.4399 pard has heart ace

0.4421 pard has club ace

0.4127 pard has club queen

2.7004 average spade length

3.5547 average club length

9.2304 average hcp pard

 

It seems pard is very likely to have 1 of the 3 key cards and odds are ok that he has 2. It's also a good shot we have either spade fit or club side fit. Since pard rates to have little in terms of distribution, it's not easy for him to find a raise of 3♠ when he has, say,

 

xxx

Axx

xxx

QJxx

 

or

 

xxx

xxx

xxx

AQxx

 

so I would say the odds favour an aggressive action, i.e. bid game right away.

 

 

2. True, but an experienced pard will give you some slack. Besides, the 6-4 shape gives us good playing strength. I wouldn't be ashamed of my hand if pard goes berserk over a jump overcall to game.

[Finch]

I would bid 3S, but I'm hardly going to criticize a partner who bids 4.

[ahydra]

4S for me, with the 6-4 shape swinging my decision.

 

ahydra

[dake50]

My luck: 4S bounces them into 5D on

double red fit, S-short.

They would not have bid with no clue to what is working.

I like 3S, closer to what my hand is worth,

and let partner rate his hand: no wasted diamond, C-stuff.

[han]

I would bid 3S as well.

[nigel_k]

... it's not easy for him to find a raise of 3♠ when he has, say,

 

xxx

Axx

xxx

QJxx

 

or

 

xxx

xxx

xxx

AQxx

Why not:

 

xxx

QJxx

xxx

Axx

 

or

 

xxx

AQxx

xxx

xxx

 

I will bid 3♠ and be wrong on the hands where partner has no heart or diamond wastage and not quite enough to raise.

[nige1]

IMO 3♠ = 10, 4♠ = 7 for reasons already stated. When holding ♠ there is less need to pre-empt. If 4♠ makes then partner may raise. But if 3N is the best pairs contract, then 3♠ allows partner to bid it..

[gszes]

nice thing about MP is if you are wrong its only 1 board. 3N seems to be a puny target.

what makes this hand so good is its 64 distribution with solid spades. Yes indeed, p

will occassionally have the perfecto 3n hand but is far more likely to offer help

for a 4s contract.

 

Opps usually are hard pressed to X (especially at MP), with nothing resembling a trump

trick, so 4s is unlikely to be x very often. 4s also has the benefit of giving the last

guess to the opps and taking up a ton of space in case they want to explore for slam

(yes it is anybody's hand). P should realize my 4s bid is based primarily on good trumps

and an offensive (not defensive) hand since I failed to x then bid 4s so we should rarely

get overboard. Having the spade suit gives us some extra flexibility. 3s a sound average

call unlikely to win any prizes.

 

4s=8 3s=5

 

A more interesting question would have been what to bid if my main suit was hearts vs

spades. Off topic but then I would choose 3h precisely because I do not have the flexibility

I have with the spade suit. We need to save the 4h bid for the very strong offensive hands

with great hearts. Here ARTK78 points out a 4h bid could easily get us overboard. If the main

suit was hearts 3h = 9 4h = 2

[dboxley]

I have an intelligent partner, 3♠

But your partner doesn't have an intelligent partner :) But seriously you can't expect pd to bid your hand for you. All you need is 9xx xxxx xxxx Ax. This is just automatic.

[Free]

I'm in the 3♠ camp, no need to gamble 4♠ imo. But I wouldn't complain if partner bid 4♠ anyway.

 

But your partner doesn't have an intelligent partner :) But seriously you can't expect pd to bid your hand for you. All you need is 9xx xxxx xxxx Ax. This is just automatic.

We're not bidding 3♠ on rubish, partner having a 3 card support and a side Ax (not in the preempter's suit) might raise.

[gnasher]

All you need is 9xx xxxx xxxx Ax.

 

Even opposite that miracle, which contains a fitting ace, a fitting doubleton, and a fitting 9, game isn't cold - with diamonds 0=7, East will have a singleton club quite a lot of the time.

[whereagles]

Why not:

 

xxx

QJxx

xxx

Axx

 

or

 

xxx

AQxx

xxx

xxx

 

Well, why not commenting on the simulation instead? It's easy to cherry-pick either hands or subsets of the text to make a point, but to make an educated decision one needs to look at the whole picture.

[MrAce]

I would personally bid 3♠ and as someone else mentioned i would not mind partner bidding 4 with this.