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play problem in slam


han

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The alternative is to the 8 forcing a entry in s, and take a finesse.

If successful we have to view whether to try and cross to table with a ruff to take a second heart finesse.

 

if we take a ruff we make with 3-3 and the finesse right (not 4-0)

4-2 and the doubleton hand holding xx,or T or the hand with three holding 4s.

 

Y66's line is C finesse (50%) combines with 65% chance in which is 32.5% line

 

the above line is 3-3 36% plus 45% chance in 16%

4 clubs on our right with 3 to K on our right 5%

any 4-2 clubs with K stiff on our right (1/8 of 48%) 6%

4 clubs on our right with KT hearts onside. 1.5%

 

so yes I agree y66's line looks better

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I am not sure there is hardly anything in this either way, going for an entry on table via or . It's always favourite that the are going to break 3-1, but that is offset by dropping the bare K. Even with the not behaving themselves, you can discard 2 on the A and the third diamond?

 

Thinking about this further, you can never be stopped form having the finesse from being an option, whereas you can be stopped from having the finesse as being an option. So I will go for the entry to table, looking for the finesse.

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AK, then Q.

 

That gets us an entry on almost all 2-2 and 3-1 breaks. The only time we don't is if RHO wins the king and plays back a low one, and the ten has not appeared, and we misguess. If we go with the odds, we'll play for 10x-Kx, so we'll fail to get to dummy only if it's x=K10x.

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So gnasher's line wins over cashing the A when the hearts are KTx=x and the club is onside. On the other hand cashing A wins when the K is singleton on either side and the club is offside. Seems like basically a wash from a technical standpoint? Playing the Q does seem to have better chances of inducing misdefense.
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I gain slightly from vacant-spaces considerations: when hearts are K10x=x, the club finesse will be right 12/22 of the time

 

Against that, my line loses when LHO is 2-2 or 3=2 in the reds and RHO has K - when RHO plays back a diamond I'll discard a club and go down. I suspect that makes A a better play.

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