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Slam play problem


awm

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[hv=pc=n&s=sak973h6daq7432ca&n=sj2haqjt7dk86c842&d=n&v=b&b=13&a=1hp2dp3dp4np5hp5sp6dppp]266|200[/hv]

 

What is your plan in 6? The lead is the 8. It's MP scoring, but probably that is not too important on this deal.

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My gut feeling is to win this, play A and K. If they split play for ruffing finesse of K if they don't, draw last trump and play spade to the jack.

I don't have much analysis to offer besides the fact that lead is often from singleton after this auction.

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The natural lead here is a black suit, so that heart is very likely to be singleton. If I take the ruffing finesse in hearts, RHO won't cover and the queen gets hacked. I end up with only 2 heart tricks; 1 short.

 

I'll lead a spade to the jack and take it from there.

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The natural lead here is a black suit, so that heart is very likely to be singleton. If I take the ruffing finesse in hearts, RHO won't cover and the queen gets hacked. I end up with only 2 heart tricks; 1 short.

 

Unless LHO was 1-1 or 1-4 in the reds, you'll now have 12 tricks: six trumps, three black-suit winners, two hearts and one ruff in dummy.

 

Even if he had four trumps (very unlikely given the lead), you still survive if he's 3145.

 

Edit: We might have a problem on the next round - what to do if Q wins, with everyone following and nobody thinking. Even if that happens, we're not worse off than we were at trick one.

Edited by gnasher
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going passive when dummy has a 5 card suit is very bad idea. But going passive when dummy has a 5 card suit in wich you hold xxx is a suicide.

 

Hands that bid keycard over 3D almost always have 0-1 hearts and a side source of tricks, so its relatively unlikely that the hearts can be set up when you are on lead with xxx. I mean, exchange the J of hearts and a small one and the hearts will never yield more than one trick unless you can ruff them out.

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Phil I think you are very wrong:

 

-Hands jumping to keycard having a void is something I'd rule out quickly unless declarer played mind games.

-Hands with doubleton Ace or King on the other hand seem pretty likelly.

-Hands with singleton will see us leading our xxx through dummy's KJ109xx/AKJxx etc. A much brighter idea would be to lead the black suit declarer has Ax or Axx before partner's A is knocked down.

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