The budget battles

[akhare]

Interesting editorial on the latest deal:

 

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/editorial/bs-ed-debt-limit-deal-20110801,0,6569759.story

[gwnn]

you linked to an email from your account. However, because I have a different account to yours, I cannot read that email.

[kenberg]

you linked to an email from your account. However, because I have a different account to yours, I cannot read that email.

 

OK, corrected. These posting mistakes can have interesting consequences sometimes. Hopefully this one proves innocuous. The mail I get is very boring.

 

And actually my password is Congress_SUX

[helene_t]

zip

[Winstonm]

I am not prepared to relive the last decade with a Republican-controlled Congress and a Republican President, but the weakness exhibited by Obama in this mess has me discouraged. I wonder if he would consider the LBJ option of not running?

 

 

With the disdain for the working class and the elderly demonstrated by Republicans, it might not be too late to win the independents over again with a better Democratic candidate, although I'm not sure who that would be - I don't think Hillary Clinton is electable, but I am fairly certain at this point that Obama is a de facto lame duck.

[PassedOut]

Seems everyone is very disappointed: 4 Ways Debt Deal Betrays Conservatives and Short-Changes America

 

Republicans’ fearful leaders didn’t merely acquiesce to a phony deal. They also helped enshrine Obama-level spending and deficits, put off meaningful entitlement reform and gave the biggest spender ever to enter the Oval Office a solid platform for reelection.

The eye of the beholder...

[helene_t]

I am not prepared to relive the last decade with a Republican-controlled Congress and a Republican President, but the weakness exhibited by Obama in this mess has me discouraged. I wonder if he would consider the LBJ option of not running?

I was thinking the same. People must be so fed up with Washington that an outsider must have a huge edge over someone who is in the mess already.

 

If Warren Buffet is on the Democratic ticket they may still have a chance. Gabrielle Giffords as running mate, she has some conservative views that could attract some borderline voters and besides the shooting incident sells.

[helene_t]

The mail I get is very boring.

That's what they said at the University of East Anglia, too!

[hotShot]

I was thinking the same. People must be so fed up with Washington that an outsider must have a huge edge over someone who is in the mess already.

 

Only if the Democratic party is unable to put the blame for crisis and to the recession caused by the shortening to the Tea Party and Republican party.

[kenberg]

I am not prepared to relive the last decade with a Republican-controlled Congress and a Republican President, but the weakness exhibited by Obama in this mess has me discouraged. I wonder if he would consider the LBJ option of not running?

 

 

With the disdain for the working class and the elderly demonstrated by Republicans, it might not be too late to win the independents over again with a better Democratic candidate, although I'm not sure who that would be - I don't think Hillary Clinton is electable, but I am fairly certain at this point that Obama is a de facto lame duck.

 

I have been thinking much along the same line. I have seen claims that this deal shows Obama as a centrist, or that the center has won, or Obama will get support from the Independents. Total rubbish, I think. I think of myself as somewhere around the political center and I am appalled.

 

The deal has all the marks of "Good God, we have to do something, here is something that is sufficiently dumb that it might get some votes". Obama looked totally clueless as a leader. This guy is in charge of our negotiations with, say, Iran? They may have noticed that he folds in the crunch.

 

Not defaulting (assuming this gets through the Senate) is good. Other than that, the deal itself and what it says about our leaders is awful. We will set up some dysfunctional commission to do something sometime. Are there any grounds whatsoever for thinking that this will result in anything good? No, I don't think so.

 

 

Obama will not be re-elected. Once it becomes clear that a person does not have the courage of his convictions, or lacks the skill to advance those beliefs, he is finished. True, Bill Clinton was once reduced to advocating a policy on school uniforms in a State of the Union speech, and he came back. I don't see this as happening again. For all his faults, people actually liked Clinton. Obama lacks the warmth to pull it off.

[helene_t]

I have been thinking much along the same line. I have seen claims that this deal shows Obama as a centrist, or that the center has won, or Obama will get support from the Independents. Total rubbish, I think. I think of myself as somewhere around the political center and I am appalled.

 

The deal has all the marks of "Good God, we have to do something, here is something that is sufficiently dumb that it might get some votes".

But .... people like you will probably still vote for Obama if the alternative is a Palin/Bachmann ticket or similar? Or will they vote for some micky-mouse independent candidate that runs only in their own state? Or will they emigrate to Canada?

[Aberlour10]

Just 2 european cents here. The only result of this whole budget theatre is what we name in Germany "ein fauler Kompromiss" ( shoddy compromise?) It doesn't solve any of the US debt problems.

[hrothgar]

Just 2 european cents here. The only result of this whole budget theatre is what we name in Germany "ein fauler Kompromiss" ( shoddy compromise?) It doesn't solve any of the US debt problems.

 

Here's my take on matters

 

We started with a fake crisis

We appear to have ended up with a fake solution

 

The debt ceiling has been raised. forstalling a crisis

There are no real spending cuts in the short term

The can has been kicked down the road

 

Arguable, the Democrats are going to be in a strong position to negotiate this next time around.

They'll be able to trade the Bush tax cuts off against spending cuts

The trigger will impact defense much more heavily than other programs

 

Don't get me wrong... I would have loved to see Obama take the Tea Party caucus by the neck and rub their face in a big pile of dog *****. I'd be happier if had a few of them taken out and shot. However, realistically, I think that he did about as well as he could have done.

 

Obama's real mistake was not ramming more through - including a Debt Ceiling increase - back when the Democrats controlled the house. However, given where we were last week, it could have gone a lot worse.

[PassedOut]

Just 2 european cents here. The only result of this whole budget theatre is what we name in Germany "ein fauler Kompromiss" ( shoddy compromise?) It doesn't solve any of the US debt problems.

No, it doesn't solve the debt problems at all. This deal did not accomplish anything except getting the tea party faction to vote to pay the bills. There are no tax increases, but there are no significant spending cuts either. This was a bipartisan deal by the white house and the old hands in congress to convince enough tea party people to "drive the car" for Boehner to prevent another economic disaster for the US.

 

I would have preferred that Obama insist on a clean debt ceiling increase or else invoke the 14th amendment, but my personality is not suited to politics (to say the least). However, to suggest that he'll lose the next election because he did not do so is emotional non-thinking. By 2012 there will be a lot more water under the dam. In fact, the next four months will be very interesting.

[helene_t]

Only if the Democratic party is unable to make Fox News put the blame for crisis and to the recession caused by the shortening to the Tea Party and Republican party.

fyp

[kenberg]

However, to suggest that he'll lose the next election because he did not do so is emotional non-thinking. By 2012 there will be a lot more water under the dam. In fact, the next four months will be very interesting.

 

Emotions play a big role in elections, and emotion is not incompatible with thinking. As Helene suggests, we have not yet seen the Republican candidate and, with the Tea Party in full frenzy, there is cause for worry. Still, I think that I am far from the only guy out there who has become convinced that Obama is in way over his head, whether the water is over the bridge, under the dam, or wherever. Apres moi, l'deluge (to continue the H2O metaphor) may have worked for DeGaulle but Obama is no DeGaulle.

[hrothgar]

Two quotes from Andrew Sullivan's blog (both from readers, not Sullivan himself)

 

In the aftermath of the debt ceiling debate I am most of all disgusted by the political immaturity and spinelessness of my own party which is literally on display in your reader's post without the slightest hint of irony. They are simply not paying attention to realities of today’s Congress. The nihilism of the Right is so complete and so utterly focused on the destruction of a presidency that avoiding default should be considered a miracle unto itself. Democrats should be winding up to beat Republicans with the extent of their depravity and recklessness in 2012. The fact that Obama slipped in defense cuts without entitlements into the trigger and left the Bush Tax Cuts off the table only further proves he is actually paying attention and his style is the right one.

 

The correct meme isn’t that Obama caved it’s that he got the best deal he could under insane circumstances.

 

When one looks at the immediate impact of the debt ceiling agreement, it appears that the GOP got roughly $25 billion in immediate cuts in exchange for a $2 trillion extension of the debt ceiling through the next election. Everything else, the $2.4975 trillion remainder of their "victory" will have to take place after 2012 AND it will have to include, if no Grand Bargain is reached, equal cuts from the Defense budget for every dime of Discretionary cuts, while leaving out SS and Medicare. In between, we can have an election and the GOP will have to run on continuing the Bush tax cuts which, when they run out under a Democratically controlled Congress (ie: Senate vetoing House belligerence) will add $4 trillion over ten years in increased revenue.

[luke warm]

However, to suggest that he'll lose the next election because he did not do so is emotional non-thinking. By 2012 there will be a lot more water under the dam. In fact, the next four months will be very interesting.

not all of us can be emotionless thinkers... i do agree that it's far too early for emotion to sustain a loss by obama... i've seen things turn around much further, much faster

[kenberg]

I acknowledge some emotion in this and I am pretty well ticked off at the whole political establishment. And I hold the republicans responsible for an act of idiocy in making the threat to default. Nonetheless, a president is supposed to be able to cope with adversity.

 

My guess is that from now on he will be able to get a bill praising motherhood through Congress. I think he will have a tough time marshalling the troops for a tougher battle. We shall see.

[PassedOut]

i do agree that it's far too early for emotion to sustain a loss by obama... i've seen things turn around much further, much faster

Yes, I think that events and conditions close to an election have a much greater impact than what happened the year before. Obama is in trouble politically for sure, but I don't think that the debt ceiling stuff will have a lot of impact a year from now. The unemployment rate will have a lot of impact though.

[luke warm]

I acknowledge some emotion in this and I am pretty well ticked off at the whole political establishment. And I hold the republicans responsible for an act of idiocy in making the threat to default. Nonetheless, a president is supposed to be able to cope with adversity.

 

My guess is that from now on he will be able to get a bill praising motherhood through Congress. I think he will have a tough time marshaling the troops for a tougher battle. We shall see.

you're right, i think... there will be a chance for him to take the lead very shortly, most likely with some sort of stimulus program... it's paradoxical, but the (imo) best stimulus program for the u.s.a. is one that would be political suicide, for him and maybe even senate dems... this assumes such a program is needed, of course... one like the last would be idiotic... do something, if something must be done, that actually creates (NOT SAVES[?])jobs... our infrastructure is in horrible condition... more railways are needed, bridges that we aren't scared to drive across need repairing, all interstates everywhere need to be 6 lanes minimum

[Winstonm]

While I agree with the argument that today's emotions will have little relevance on the next election, my personal view is that this was not about emotions but about watching a President act during times of duress.

 

The Republican Party simply ignored this guy. Your enemies may not always fear you, but they should at least respect your capabilities.

 

IMO Obama looks like a pushover.

[PassedOut]

Arguable, the Democrats are going to be in a strong position to negotiate this next time around.

They'll be able to trade the Bush tax cuts off against spending cuts

The trigger will impact defense much more heavily than other programs

During the debt ceiling negotiations, many of the republicans -- foolishly, but sincerely -- considered US default to be a better option than any of the proposals. You can never negotiate an agreement unless both parties believe that a negotiated agreement is better than their best alternative.

 

But now the dynamic has changed. The new alternative is to let the "triggers" be pulled so that the automatic cuts take place. If the democrats can't forge an acceptable agreement with the republicans, they can simply let those automatic cuts take place and also let all the Bush tax cuts expire. Not great, but nowhere near the disaster that a default would have been.

[kenberg]

I am probably being tiresome but in my mind I keep returning to my youthful game of chicken. I see in the paper this morning that our legislators are all congratulating each other on what a fine job they have done in reaching this compromise. After Neil ad I came within a few inches of scatter our cars and ourselves over the roadway, we did not congratulate each other on our skill and judgment. We agreed that we had been truly stupid and had no wish for a re-run. And we were only sixteen.

 

I am absolutely furious with these jerks.

 

Firstly, any Congressman or Senator who supported the idea of default has, in my mind, totally disqualified himself from any future position of trust. If they actually thought default was a good idea they are idiots, and if they realized that it was a bad idea but thought it a good idea to threaten it anyway they are worse than idiots.

 

Secondly, I have no faith whatsoever in their ability to craft a responsible bill. Apparently the twelve person super committee will consist of six people who will under no circumstances accept any increase in taxes and six more people who will under no circumstances accept any revision to entitlements. So we will all watch a re-run of Budget Chicken.

 

Third, this seems to be being framed as defense cuts for the liberals versus medicare cuts for the conservatives. I suppose that I qualify more as a liberal than a conservative but I do not favor mindless cuts in defense and I have conservative friends who do not favor mindless cuts in medicare or other social programs. Our representatives seem to dissolve into a puddle at the thought of upsetting the more rabid elements in their base.

 

I'll be more than happy to congratulate these guys when/if they actually accomplish something.

[PassedOut]

Firstly, any Congressman or Senator who supported the idea of default has, in my mind, totally disqualified himself from any future position of trust. If they actually thought default was a good idea they are idiots, and if they realized that it was a bad idea but thought it a good idea to threaten it anyway they are worse than idiots.

One of the advantages of being in business is that you can generally avoid having any dealings with such people. I find it interesting (and rather bizarre) that politicians actually campaign for the opportunity to negotiate with fools and crooks.