chasetb Posted April 13, 2011 Report Share Posted April 13, 2011 [hv=pc=n&s=st9h5daq96caqjt98&n=saqj642hakj6dck65]133|200[/hv]Contract is 7♣S. That dastardly devil West leads trump. What hand do you win the trump lead in, and how do you go about bringing this Grand Slam home? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 13, 2011 Report Share Posted April 13, 2011 I see two lines: A: Win the trump in hand, play the ♠T to the Ace, cash the ♥AK pitching a spade and play the ♠Q from the board. If the King obliges, draw trump and claim. If the King does not drop, ruff a diamond, ruff a spade and hope trump are 2-2. In a vacuum, I make this line about 41% ((.68 x .40) + (.28 x 50)). In reality, its better than this since LHO is much more likely to have 2-3 trump instead of a singleton. If we were to say he will 'never' lead a trump singleton, and since trump are not 4-0, I think the odds of a 2-2 now become more like 60% and a 3-1 closer to 40, which make the success of this line 48%. B: Start on a crossruff - win in hand, ♦A, ruff ♦, ♥AK (discarding spade), ruff ♥, ruff ♦, ruff heart and trump. I'll make on a spade finesse, or if I can guess a ♠ + ♦ squeeze, so I'm getting 50% from the get-go + some points for the ♦K dropping. Calculating the squeeze odds seems dependent on what I find out in the red suits, but it seems LHO would have to have a lot of hearts for the squeeze to be right. Depending on the auction, an evil LHO might lead a spade looking at the K. Obviously thats great for me here, but surely it is a consideration for the success of the spade finesse. "B" looks superior to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted April 13, 2011 Report Share Posted April 13, 2011 Why in your line A would you play ace then queen of spades lol? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 13, 2011 Report Share Posted April 13, 2011 Why in your line A would you play ace then queen of spades lol? Why does it hurt? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted April 13, 2011 Report Share Posted April 13, 2011 Because sometimes RHO has 4 of them? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 13, 2011 Report Share Posted April 13, 2011 Because sometimes RHO has 4 of them? (headslap) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Echognome Posted April 13, 2011 Report Share Posted April 13, 2011 It would be fun to win the trump in hand, play the ♠T to the A, then a low spade off dummy. Please note I said "fun" and not "smart". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 13, 2011 Report Share Posted April 13, 2011 (headslap) By the way, as he indirectly points out, I can make with RHO having 4-2 in the blacks. This gives "A" a lot more credit (and might well be superior) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenrexford Posted April 14, 2011 Report Share Posted April 14, 2011 This hand gets weird late in the play. I mean, one alternative line is to simply ruff one diamond and then finesse spades. That hook is allowed to work. But, at about the 8-card ending, things get Geza Ottlik weird and geavily conditional. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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