at match-points:should this deal be bid to game?

[bill1157]

North Deals

None Vul

♠ J 10 9

♥ A K J 2

♦ Q J 10 4

♣ 6 5

 

♠ A 5 3 2

♥ Q 10 9 8 4

♦ A 8

♣ 9 8

 

N opens 1♦, E overcalls 2♣. It would seem to be less than 50% to make 4♥, but does the overcall raise the chance enough of cards lying favorably to make game a good bid?

 

Bill

[awm]

Yes, bid game.

 

Out of ♣AKQ + ♠KQ + ♦K, we expect overcaller to have at least four of them. While he could potentially have only three and still be strong enough to overcall, that gives his partner enough that we would expect a raise at least.

 

If overcaller has all six cards you always make.

If overcaller has five of them, you make 5 times of 6 (unless he is missing ♦K).

If overcaller has four of them, you make 9 times of 15 (unless he is missing ♦K or both spade honors).

 

Overcall this looks like 15/22 which is a lot more than 50%. Even if you throw in a few possibilities with overcaller having only three of the critical cards, game looks good.

[hrothgar]

I'd want to be in game

 

In practice, I don't think that you're going to lose more than three tricks all that often

 

Let's assume that the defense starts by cashing a pair of clubs and then leads a Spade through dummy.

You duck, West wins and honor and punches back a trump ...

 

This is a worst case scenario and you still should make it if the Spade honor and the King of Diamonds are both with the hand that overcalled.

Which is at least 25%

 

If you get lucky and the defense gets off to a bad start then you have some very real chances to engineer an end play against West

[ggwhiz]

Mathematically, Yes. Practically No.

 

Make the ♠10 a deuce Or put either top ♦ in the club suit and game is out.

 

I would bid 2♥ as south, pard is forced to raise but since that doesn't promise 4 of them I should pass and usually do unless I'm on my 3rd beer.