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Guess this one


Fluffy

your bid is...  

22 members have voted

  1. 1. your bid is...

    • Pass, and pray to make
      8
    • Pass, we will make it with overtrick
      5
    • 4SP, a cue is the best to find slams
      0
    • 4NT, Key card blackwood will tell us about AKQ trumps
      3
    • 5C, with a bit of luck partner will pass and we will make it.
      0
    • 5H, let partner decide about his trumps
      4
    • 5NT, lets ask specifically about trumps to play 7
      1
    • 6C, the best slam
      0
    • 6H, we will make 12 tricks probably, bad luck otherwise
      0
    • 7H, partner has solid suit for this bid so...
      0
    • 7NT, partner has solid suit for this bid so...
      0
    • other, other? do you really think any other bid has sense?
      1


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Do you play NAMYATS? If you do, Pass. If partner has an broken suit, you're screwed... If you don't, Pass and pray you don't have 2 overtricks. We're still NV vs V, and it's , so it still might be a little light ;)

 

With a singleton I'd probably bid 5 since it's all about trump tricks, but now it's even too dangerous to go to 5-level imo.

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At this vulnerabilty (them red, we not), my partnrers and I are very aggreesive with preempts. They are less likely to want to risk defending you doubled, you are less likely to get hurt too badly if they do double and beat you to death, because of the vulnerability.

 

I guess the best way to explain this threatment is 5-4-2-1 or 5-4-3-1. So what does this mean?

 

5 = not vul versus vul. Partner will be within five tricks of his preempt (5 tricks here)

4 = not vul versus vul, partner will be within four tricks of his preempt (6 tricks here)

3 = vul versus vul, partner will be within 3 tricks of his bid (7 tricks)

1 =we vul, they not vul, partner will be within one trick of his bid (9).

 

So if we were vul, I would be trying for slam (I have five tricks, partner promised 7), if we were vul, I would be going for grand slam (grand slam force in here). Not vul versus vul? I hope partner's estimate of five tricks is correct, he may lose more hearts than he planned.

 

As an aside, I am a ZAR bidder. So if partner holds seven hearts AKQxxxx the worse ZAR count he could have is 26. Not vul, he gladly open that 1H, so no way will I consider bidding on.

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I guess a pass is right opposite an aggressive preemptor.

But even the most agressive one would just open 4H with:

xx-KQJ10xxx-xx-xx

And of course he will not consider Namyats with this hand.

So the Namyats argument doesn't hold much water.

If your style is to deliver reasonable trumps (suit quality of 10) for game bid, then a slam try (I prefer 5H) is quite justified.

Still, I think his hearts may be scary (this preempt is not for faint hearted), and I would pass and pray (hope not to make two overtricks).

Btw, if he plays 4H-1, it is time for him to go more conservative in the future.

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I guess a pass is right opposite an aggressive preemptor.

But even the most agressive one would just open 4H with:

xx-KQJ10xxx-xx-xx

And of course he will not consider Namyats with this hand.

So the Namyats argument doesn't hold much water.

If your style is to deliver reasonable trumps (suit quality of 10) for game bid, then a slam try (I prefer 5H) is quite justified.

Still, I think his hearts may be scary (this preempt is not for faint hearted), and I would pass and pray (hope not to make two overtricks).

Btw, if he plays 4H-1, it is time for him to go more conservative in the future.

What about this hand ? is this a good slam ?

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Bit late coming in on this, but I would argue that even if opener's H are as good as AQJT to 7 you are unlikely to make slam on a D lead as you have to set up the C for a D pitch. Opener really needs to have AK to some number to make this a good slam.

 

I think pass is a pretty clear call.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Here is the hand:

 

[hv=n=s83hkqj10652dq83c4&s=sak72hda72cakj982]133|200|[/hv]

 

I passed hoping to make on a good day and the lead was J, when the Q held trick 1 I changed my mind to think Iunderbid this one.

 

The play continuned normally, K won by East, and a switch.

 

My partner tried to ruff in and to draw trtumps but it was overruffed, next came K, and by now the best he could achieve was 420, the complete hand:

 

 

[hv=n=s83hkqj10652dq83c4&w=sq10965h9d95cq10765&e=sj4ha8743dkj1064c3&s=sak72hda72cakj982]399|300|[/hv]

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For people studying ZAR.. this would also be easy.. let's count south's hand....

 

19 hcp

8 control points

16 distributional points

------

total 43 points.. partner is expect to have 23 to 25 something like that...

 

43 + 25 = 68, enough for even a grand slam (67 needed), but wait....you have to take into account "fitting points" South is 3 trumps short.. that is minus nine points...

 

43-9= 34, and 34+25 = 59, this is no longer enough even for small slam (62 needed)... This isn't the way I would bid this hand of course.. if my partner was vul and they were not, I would be trying for grand slam.. I count tricks here, not poitns.. but thought I would share this mathematical approach with you...

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For people studying ZAR.. this would also be easy.. let's count south's hand....

 

19 hcp

8 control points

16 distributional points

------

total 43 points.. partner is expect to have 23 to 25 something like that...

 

43 + 25 = 68, enough for even a grand slam (67 needed), but wait....you have to take into account "fitting points" South is 3 trumps short.. that is minus nine points...

 

43-9= 34, and 34+25 = 59, this is no longer enough even for small slam (62 needed)... This isn't the way I would bid this hand of course.. if my partner was vul and they were not, I would be trying for grand slam.. I count tricks here, not poitns.. but thought I would share this mathematical approach with you...

Why is South "3 trumps short"?

 

If North has a seven card suit, we don't need 3 to have a fit with him. And a 4 Pre-empt often has 8 cards in it.

 

Eric

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Well.. as far as playing the suit, I guess he is two trumps short... but having a void in partners suit does make the play much more difficult, so I subtract the full nine, always. And this is good too, becasue partner looking at eight will be adding points for his extra legnth.... so my subtracting will help make for his over-estimate.

 

Ben

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Well.. as far as playing the suit, I guess he is two trumps short... but having a void in partners suit does make the play much more difficult, so I subtract the full nine, always. And this is good too, becasue partner looking at eight will be adding points for his extra legnth.... so my subtracting will help make for his over-estimate.

 

Ben

Fair enough.

 

I note that North is minimum for a 4 bid (as most play it), and even now 6 isn't terrible. Although it turns out to be with the actual distribution. But change a small diamond for a small heart and you would definitley want to be in the slam.

 

Eric

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