3nt, matchpoint line vs. IMP line

[Stephen Tu]

[hv=pc=n&s=s92hkq7dk73ca9852&n=sakqt8h54dqt2ckj6&d=n&v=b&b=13&a=1sp2cp3cp3nppp]266|200[/hv]

♥3-♥4-♥T-? (opps playing 4th best leads)

 

What's the best MP line?

IMPs?

[gnasher]

If our objective is to make:

 

A club to the jack works when clubs are 3-2 with the queen onside, or singleton queen onside, or Qxxx onside but the spades coming in. Ignoring inferences from the lead, that's about 34 + 3 + 6 = 43%.

 

Playing spades from the top works when spades come in, and either ♣Q comes down in two or LHO has ♦A. That's about 52 x (0.5 x (2/5 x 0.68 + 1/5 x 0.28) + 0.5) ~= 35%. However, you also survive when spades don't come in but there's a singleton queen of clubs on the left, so that gets us up to about 36%.

 

At IMPs, a club to the jack is clearly best.

 

 

Considering the matchpoint problem:

 

If the club finesse works, we may then find the spades coming in too, and make 11 tricks. Or if spades are xx-Jxxx offside but LHO has ♦A, we will still make at least 10 tricks. If the club finesse loses, we lose a club, probably four hearts, and a diamond for two off.

 

If the spade line works, we might get one overtrick if LHO has the red aces and ♦J (cash the spades, cash two top clubs, lead ♦Q), but two overtricks will need everything working. If the spade line fails, we lose two black-suit tricks.

 

So a club to the jack is still better than playing spades.

 

Playing for one off might be reasonable if we had a good line for one off, but we don't.

 

Hence a club to the jack is best at matchpoints too.

[bluecalm]

There is also a line of playing club to the ace and running J of clubs. This wins whenever clubs comes in or W has Qxx/Qx/Txx of clubs and A♦.

Looks like 45+% to me.

 

Even better would be to play spade to the ace first I think and then run J♣. Additional chance is that RHO won't put his Qx on this.

If he does play the queen then we play Ace and King of clubs if T won't come up then we try spades "knowing" T♣ is on the right. If spades provide 5 tricks then we just play diamonds.

I don't know how much % is that but looks like 50+ easily.

[gnasher]

There is also a line of playing club to the ace and running J of clubs. This wins whenever clubs comes in or W has Qxx/Qx/Txx of clubs and A♦.

Looks like 45+% to me.

 

Even better would be to play spade to the ace first I think and then run J♣. Additional chance is that RHO won't put his Qx on this.

If he does play the queen then we play Ace and King of clubs if T won't come up then we try spades "knowing" T♣ is on the right. If spades provide 5 tricks then we just play diamonds.

I don't know how much % is that but looks like 50+ easily.

 

Yes, that does look better. If ♣J is covered and the 10 doesn't fall, you should switch to spades. If the spades come in, now you just need LHO to have ♦A, and if he doesn't you've only gone one down. If the spades don't come in, you can still play another club, hoping to find LHO with xx AJ9xx Axx 10xx.