dickiegera Posted March 30, 2011 Report Share Posted March 30, 2011 Why when holding Axxx opposite Q1098 is is wrong to play Ace first and then lead to the Q10? I know that one should either lead Q or 10 for a finesse or lead small to the Q10 first. If you need 4 tricks you must lead Q trying to drop J Mathematically Why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustinst22 Posted March 30, 2011 Report Share Posted March 30, 2011 Why when holding Axxx opposite Q1098 is is wrong to play Ace first and then lead to the Q10? I know that one should either lead Q or 10 for a finesse or lead small to the Q10 first. If you need 4 tricks you must lead Q trying to drop J Mathematically Why? Needing all 4, cashing the ace you are obv praying K is singleton. And of course leading Q you hope to pin the jack singleton. However, there's also a small chance East will misdefend on the Q lead and not cover the first round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manudude03 Posted March 30, 2011 Report Share Posted March 30, 2011 Without going into the precise numbers, when you run the T, you make 3 tricks when either of the honours is onside (you run the T incase it breaks 5-0 and you can change tactics). If you cash the ace and lead towards QT, if opp follows low, you have a guess and so you lose half of the time it is split honours. If you need 4 tricks, it is a crapshoot as far as I know. (stiff K behind QT, or stiff J in front of) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manudude03 Posted March 30, 2011 Report Share Posted March 30, 2011 Needing all 4, cashing the ace you are obv praying K is singleton. And of course leading Q you hope to pin the jack singleton. However, there's also a small chance East will misread the situation and not cover on your Q lead, and now you may pin a jack doubleton. You still don't pick up jack doubleton in that case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustinst22 Posted March 30, 2011 Report Share Posted March 30, 2011 You still don't pick up jack doubleton in that case. Ah true. However it seems you are at least allowing for some misdefense from East in the second case (leading the Q). Maybe he covers the 2nd round. Whereas cashing the ace, you don't allow for that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pooltuna Posted March 30, 2011 Report Share Posted March 30, 2011 LHO RHO fin Q, fin T Play A,lead x Fin win Play A winKJ765 - W L 1 0J765 K W W 1 1K765 J W W 1 1KJ65 7 W L 1 0KJ75 6 W L 1 0KJ76 5 W L 1 0765 KJ L W 0 1J65 K7 W W 1 1J75 K6 W W 1 1J76 K5 W W 1 1K65 J7 W W 1 1K75 J6 W W 1 1K76 J5 W W 1 1KJ5 76 W L 1 0KJ6 75 W L 1 0KJ7 65 W L 1 065 KJ7 L W 0 175 KJ6 L W 0 176 KJ5 L W 0 1J5 K76 W W 1 1J6 K75 W W 1 1J7 K65 W W 1 1K5 J76 W L 1 0K6 J75 W L 1 0K7 J65 W L 1 0KJ 765 W W 1 15 KJ76 L L 0 06 KJ75 L L 0 07 KJ65 L L 0 0J K765 W W 1 1K J765 W W 1 1- KJ765 L W 0 1 24 19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasetb Posted March 31, 2011 Report Share Posted March 31, 2011 (edited) pooltuna has the right idea. Here are the results based on suitplay, setting North as A432 and South as QT98. Playing the Ace must be inferior, because it lists only two lines - Lead 10/9/8 planning on finessing, and Lead Q, planning on finessing. On a few of the hands, I made comments when it's likely to differ if you play the Ace immediately: West East 10 Q Prob.KJxxx - 3 3 1.96% *Ace losesKJxx x 3 3 8.48% *Ace losesKJx xx 3 3 10.17% *Ace losesKJ xxx 3 3 3.93% Kxxx J 3 4 2.83%Kxx Jx 3 3 10.17%Kx Jxx 3 3 10.17% *Ace loses if you guess incorrectly, so I'll call it -5.085%K Jxxx 4 3 2.83%Jxxx K 3 3 2.83% *Ace wins 4Jxx Kx 3 3 10.17%Jx Kxx 3 3 10.17%J Kxxx 3 3 2.83%xxx KJ 2 2 3.39% *Ace wins 3xx KJx 2 2 10.17%x KJxx 2 2 8.48%- KJxxx 3 2 1.96% *Ace will get 3 tricks Leading the 10/9/8 overall wins by a score of 77.96% - 76.00% when aiming for 3 tricks (both are even in making 4 tricks), gaining on singleton K onside as well as when KJxxx is behind the Axxx. Leading the Q only wins when the singleton J is offsides. By my math, the Ace will gain 3 tricks about 56.195%, making it a CLEAR #3. The Ace will gain you 4 tricks on 5.66% compared to 2.83% for the other 2; that doesn't make up for it clearly getting PWNED! Edited March 31, 2011 by chasetb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pooltuna Posted March 31, 2011 Report Share Posted March 31, 2011 you might want to look at Ax opposite QT9876 for an interesting result IMS :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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