Suit combinatino - reality check

[bluecalm]

[hv=pc=n&s=s7653h2da986ckj52&n=saj9hkj98653dqca6&d=s&v=e&b=3&a=pp1hp1sp3hppp]266|200[/hv]

 

Italy - Bulgaria Euro 2010. Declarer is Norberto Bocchi.

Play:

 

7c, Jc, Qc, Ac

Qd, Kd, Ad, 7d

2h, 4h, ?????

 

I am calculating this and I keep making mistakes and arrive at different results. Now I am pretty sure I finally got the solution but it's different than the line Bocchi has chosen. I doubt there is much to read fomr the play so far so it's seems like "pure" suit combination hand. Anyway, your play ?

 

EDIT: ok I finally got it. Not surprisingly the way the Bocchi played is the best. I am leaving this thread for educational purposes :) Maybe someone who doesn't know the answer would like to have a shot.

[JLOGIC]

Just taking the heart suit in a vacuum, obviously it's best to play the king.

 

I did not really look at the hand though so maybe there are some other considerations.

[nigel_k]

King

[bluecalm]

obviously it's best to play the king.

 

Is it that obvious ? I can't see it intuitively.

I think I made a mistake again (like 10th time) and won't attempt to solve it today again but I am still not sure. Looks like a wash to me now.

[JLOGIC]

Bluecalm:

 

Obviously low to the king and low to the jack are a wash on 3-2 splits. If you play low to the jack and lose to the queen, you'll have to guess what to do next and might misguess (or not be able to guess). If you play low to the king and lose to the ace, same problem. This should be fairly easy to see (QTx onside and ATx onside are a wash, Qxx onside and Axx onside are a wash, etc).

 

So, forget about 3-2 breaks and think about 4-1 breaks. If it's 4-1 with the stiff on our right, what we do does not matter.

 

So think about 4-1 breaks, where there are 4 on our right. If LHO has a small stiff, our play doesn't matter, we will lose 3 tricks. If our LHO has stiff ace, our play doesn't matter, we will lose 3 tricks (this is important!). So the only relevant holdings are stiff Q and stiff T on our left, the king picks up both of those for 2 losers.

 

I guess the "trick" is that if your finesse of low to the jack "worked" and lost to the ace, but it was stiff ace, you still lose 3 tricks, so there is no gain in playing the jack vs the king in that scenario. However when your finesse of low to the king works, and the queen drops, you HAVE gained a trick over playing low to the jack.

 

Like I said, this is just taking the suit in a vacuum, I did not really look at the hand.

[JLOGIC]

Bluecalm:

 

Maybe this is intuitive to me because of the much more common situation of AQT9xxx opposite stiff, which is exactly the same concept. Should you play low to the queen, or low to the ten? Well, on 3-2 splits they are a wash. On 4-1 splits, if it is KJxx onside you have no winning option, so again stiff J and stiff K are the relevant holdings. Well, if you play the ten and it loses to the king, you still lose a trick to the Jxxx onside, so you gained nothing. However, if you play the queen and drop the jack you gained a trick. Therefore, low to the queen is the right play.

[fred]

For another interesting (and similar-looking) problem, consider KJ98xxx opposite a void. You can afford 2 losers.

 

Fred Gitelman

Bridge Base Inc.

www.bridgebase.com

[inquiry]

Before I get all botched up with Fred's similiar problem, someone solve this first one for me.

 

I got small to the KING is right. That is how I would play it. After the king wins, you just exit a small heart. The question is what do you play next from hearts in dummy? The Jack or the Nine? I can't see a way to tell between the two of these two options. Is there some clue we can look for to decide if West is more likely to have two or three hearts? Maybe some count clues from the first rounds in clubs and diamonds?

[1eyedjack]

I would be interested to know whether it might be a better line just to bash out hearts from the top from the long hand, and use the two minor suit entries to lead up to the 9 of spades then J of spades. You get out for two Heart losers when either oppo has Q singleton or T doubleton or singleton, and gain the extra chance of finding HT of Spades onside.

[nigel_k]

Before I get all botched up with Fred's similiar problem, someone solve this first one for me.

 

I got small to the KING is right. That is how I would play it. After the king wins, you just exit a small heart. The question is what do you play next from hearts in dummy? The Jack or the Nine? I can't see a way to tell between the two of these two options. Is there some clue we can look for to decide if West is more likely to have two or three hearts? Maybe some count clues from the first rounds in clubs and diamonds?

I assume we are talking about the case where the king loses. Knowing West's heart length doesn't help because his relevant holdings are 10xx, Qxx, 10x and Qx. The jack next works if he started with Qxx or 10x and low works if it is Qx or 10xx. There isn't much help from the auction either. Of course we will see what East leads next before we have to decide. In general it is better to pin the ten than lose to doubleton queen because there is no trump promotion threat.

 

I would be interested to know whether it might be a better line just to bash out hearts from the top from the long hand, and use the two minor suit entries to lead up to the 9 of spades then J of spades. You get out for two Heart losers when either oppo has Q singleton or T doubleton or singleton, and gain the extra chance of finding HT of Spades onside.

Good point and maybe this is better. There is something like a 37% chance of avoiding a spade loser though you are giving up quite a few trump positions where the ace is onside.

[Lurpoa]

For another interesting (and similar-looking) problem, consider KJ98xxx opposite a void. You can afford 2 losers.

 

Fred Gitelman

Bridge Base Inc.

www.bridgebase.com

 

 

K and J from Top, hoping for T double

[Lurpoa]

[hv=pc=n&s=s7653h2da986ckj52&n=saj9hkj98653dqca6&d=s&v=e&b=3&a=pp1hp1sp3hppp]266|200[/hv]

 

Italy - Bulgaria Euro 2010. Declarer is Norberto Bocchi.

Play:

 

7c, Jc, Qc, Ac

Qd, Kd, Ad, 7d

2h, 4h, ?????

 

I am calculating this and I keep making mistakes and arrive at different results. Now I am pretty sure I finally got the solution but it's different than the line Bocchi has chosen. I doubt there is much to read fomr the play so far so it's seems like "pure" suit combination hand. Anyway, your play ?

 

EDIT: ok I finally got it. Not surprisingly the way the Bocchi played is the best. I am leaving this thread for educational purposes :) Maybe someone who doesn't know the answer would like to have a shot.

 

 

 

 

 

small to K,

 

if it holds; 9 from hand, hoping for T, Q or A double

 

if it is taken by A, the 9 hoping for Q double.

 

 

[Free]

Obviously low to the king and low to the jack are a wash on 3-2 splits. If you play low to the jack and lose to the queen, you'll have to guess what to do next and might misguess (or not be able to guess). If you play low to the king and lose to the ace, same problem. This should be fairly easy to see (QTx onside and ATx onside are a wash, Qxx onside and Axx onside are a wash, etc).

 

So, forget about 3-2 breaks

I got small to the KING is right. That is how I would play it. After the king wins, you just exit a small heart. The question is what do you play next from hearts in dummy? The Jack or the Nine? I can't see a way to tell between the two of these two options. Is there some clue we can look for to decide if West is more likely to have two or three hearts? Maybe some count clues from the first rounds in clubs and diamonds?

Small to the King is indeed correct. Justin already explained that it's a complete guess after you've lost that trick, because the remaining cards can be Qx-T or Q-Tx (and it doesn't matter if they split 4-1). If you win the trick and everyone follows, you'll just lose 2 tricks (or 3 if the suit splits 4-1 and no honour dropped under the K).