Fukushima fact check

[blackshoe]

The media, IMO, since the concept of actually verifying your sources seems not to be part of what passes for "journalism" these days.

[Gerben42]

Not much new information, sorry. Apparently the radiation has gone down, and they are trying to cool the spent fuel pool with helicopters and high pressure water cannons. So far apparently with mixed success. I need not repeat that failure here would be catastrophic. This will probably go on for quite some time so we have to be patient.

 

Some good news is that they are going to try getting electricity back to the plant. That would make things much, much more simple. Meanwhile, I am awaiting what the German government is going to do with the announced "stress test" for its plants.

[hotShot]

I find it unrealistic to expect that someone actually knows exactly what is going on.

 

The ones that could in theory know best, are the people actually in the plant, but they have to work without light and have to avoid to go to places where the radiation level would kill them at once.

Since they can't really take a look what is going on, they have to rely on estimations and assumptions. I doubt that it is important for them to know e.g. how low the water is, as they have to get it up again. Without electric current, damaged by the tsunami and perhaps destroyed by the radiation any surveillance instrument they might have had, is either not working or unreliable.

And I guess that they have more important things to do, than keeping the media up to date.

[Winstonm]

The media, IMO, since the concept of actually verifying your sources seems not to be part of what passes for "journalism" these days.

 

Wait a second - I thought I was the only one around here who held those views of the media.

[cherdano]

Wait a second - I thought I was the only one around here who held those views of the media.

For the first time in ages, I watched CNN yesterday while on the plane.

 

Now I know that the catastrophe is already as bad a Chernobyl. It's true because a nuclear expert on CNN said it, in the first 5 minutes that I watched. (And of course the following 15 minutes consisted of CNN hosts talking to each other about the news that a nuclear expert on CNN had finally said how bad it really is.)

 

Fortunately, halftime was over and I could switch back to ESPN.

[phil_20686]

For the first time in ages, I watched CNN yesterday while on the plane.

 

Now I know that the catastrophe is already as bad a Chernobyl. It's true because a nuclear expert on CNN said it, in the first 5 minutes that I watched. (And of course the following 15 minutes consisted of CNN hosts talking to each other about the news that a nuclear expert on CNN had finally said how bad it really is.)

 

Fortunately, halftime was over and I could switch back to ESPN.

 

CNN - that was your mistake. Everyone knows that real americans only trust Fox news. lol

:)

[kenberg]

If I were in Japan and the Japanese government and the American government were arguing over whether I should stay 19 miles away or 50 miles away I would compromise and stay 100 miles away. And if their is room on one of those charters, I could be packed in twenty minutes.

 

I think that the basic fact is clear, namely that no one knows how this is going to go. I suppose experts on CNN, FOX, or elsewhere aren't paid big bucks to say that.

[dcrc2]

For the first time in ages, I watched CNN yesterday while on the plane.

 

Now I know that the catastrophe is already as bad a Chernobyl. It's true because a nuclear expert on CNN said it, in the first 5 minutes that I watched. (And of course the following 15 minutes consisted of CNN hosts talking to each other about the news that a nuclear expert on CNN had finally said how bad it really is.)

 

Fortunately, halftime was over and I could switch back to ESPN.

I was watching the BBC breakfast programme when, during an interview with an expert on nuclear power, the footage of the first explosion came through. Stunned, the presenter came up with a remarkably insightful question: "Presumably, an explosion like this is something you want to avoid?"

[matmat]

For the first time in ages, I watched CNN yesterday while on the plane.

 

Now I know that the catastrophe is already as bad a Chernobyl. It's true because a nuclear expert on CNN said it, in the first 5 minutes that I watched. (And of course the following 15 minutes consisted of CNN hosts talking to each other about the news that a nuclear expert on CNN had finally said how bad it really is.)

 

Fortunately, halftime was over and I could switch back to ESPN.

 

Uninformed fear-mongering at its finest.

 

Did you catch the science segment on fox news the other day?

[blackshoe]

CNN - that was your mistake. Everyone knows that real americans only trust Fox news. lol

:)

 

 

"Trust no one." -- The Marlboro Man, to Fox Mulder.

[blackshoe]

I was watching the BBC breakfast programme when, during an interview with an expert on nuclear power, the footage of the first explosion came through. Stunned, the presenter came up with a remarkably insightful question: "Presumably, an explosion like this is something you want to avoid?"

 

ROFL!! :lol: :lol: :lol:

[Winstonm]

I never knew there was a Japan Syndrome.

[y66]

Good discussion on Science Friday. To listen, see controls in upper left corner.

 

Edit: Technical glitch in the podcast. Sorry.

[cloa513]

The earthquake itself didn't cause them any big problems- some workers got hurt- the assumption that you can predict the maximum size of a tsunami is what did them caused the nuclear the big damage and the luck that one nuclear was a big higher than higher than the other was the reason that they have only one major nuclear incident.

[matmat]

http://xkcd.com/radiation/

I found this chart more informative than any/all of the graphics in standard media (that I have seen so far).

[blackshoe]

That's a pretty good chart.

[blackshoe]

I found this article interesting.

[hotShot]

I found this article interesting.

 

I suggest you read this too.

[gwnn]

So the UN wrote about 4000 deaths while there are four or five articles and a book that cite higher numbers. What are the conclusions? What should we do? Why is it important?

[Aberlour10]

The political shock waves of this disaster reach Germany. The most conservative state in Germany >>> Baden-Württemberg has got the first "green" prime minister in the history of Federal Republic, elected on Sunday.

[blackshoe]

I don't know much about German politics, but my guess is that won't turn out well.

[P_Marlowe]

I don't know much about German politics, but my guess is that won't turn out well.

Well - he belongs to the "Green" party, but from what I understood, he could also be

a member of the party, that ruled the country before.

He is certainly a conservative, "Conservative" also used to mean preserving the resources

of the nature.

 

And the member of the "Green" Party in Baden-Württemberg are known for their pragmatic

approach, they usually belong to the "Realos" - Real politians. (1)

 

Also one may or may not like it, but the first federal governemt with participation of

the Green party did a good job in modernizing Germany.

 

I dont want to discuss the law that tried to end the usage of "Nuclear Energy" in Germany,

this law was rolled back by the current government, ... and now they try to be faster than

the oulined timeschedule, there are others, e.g. like the Hartz Reforms and the Riester

Reform - and the boom 2006 in Germany had a lot to do with the work that was done between

1998 - 2006, when a coalition of Social Democrats and the Green Party governed in Germany.

 

This does not say it will be easy, but there is realistic hope, that the change will bring

something good, but sure - it will also make some things worse.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

 

PS: (1) Under a Green State Department Germany did send soldiers out side to Afgahnistan,

and the Green Party was a strong "Peace Party", they have their roots in the peace movements

from the 1980.

I am not commenting on this specific decison, but in the end the majority backed the

mandate, although lots of peoble view the mandate critical.

[Gerben42]

More than two weeks after the accident, TEPCO admitted to a core melt. Note that I already told you this two weeks ago. More importantly, plutonium was found outside the plant, which was probably caused by the damaged fuel elements in the fuel pool in block 4. GRS information (reliable source) notes that the plutonium levels are not dangerous for health. Plutonium, although it has a large decay time, is most dangerous when it is incorporated into the body. The radiation can be shielded by a sheet of paper (as can be read here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiation_protection).

 

Some more inside information for you: Some AREVA employees were in Fukushima during the earthquake for non-destructive-testing (ultrasound) of several pipes. After the quake, they had noted that the emergency systems were activated as planned. They then proceeded to a hill just outside the plant and the tsunami hit. Apparently this damaged the protective wall in front of the plant, and still everything was running. Half an hour later, an aftershock with more than 8.0 hit and this one produced the 14m high tsunami that then did the damage that the plant could not recover from.

 

It was apparent that all possibilities to get power from outside the plant were gone as parts of the road were more than 1 meter elevated through huge cracks. Using vehicles was impossible, and the chance that any underground power lines did survive was about zero.

 

Although now new information is trickling in, the reason is that people are now performing surface measurements, not because things have changed at the plant. As I suggested before, they are changing the injection from salt water to fresh water because that won't attack the steel of the RPV and pipes. Getting rid of the contaminated water that is already inside the plant is of course a difficult business. But I doubt that it is worth the headlines that it is getting.

 

Radiation levels around the plant are still elevated at approximately 1 mSv / hour, which is about the natural yearly dose per hour. It will be some months until it will be healthy to live there again, but I must repeat that under the current information, a long-term evacuation of a large area will not be necessary.

 

As for the situation in Europe, it is important to learn from what happened in Japan. It is possible to reach the right conclusions or to reach the wrong ones. My personal opinion is that the complete removal of nuclear power plants while not turning into a CO2-machine can be managed by very few countries. If any, it could be Germany. Most of the rest of Europe cannot. For them I think a good decision would be to replace the old NPP by new ones. It seems Sweden for example is willing to go this way. Large industrial countries that can survive without nuclear power are rare birds indeed. If Germany goes this way, I wish them good luck, they will need it as it is an almost impossible task as the main challenges will be to get more power grid capacity and large energy storage facilities. Also note that the neighbours won't follow. They cannot even if they wanted to.

 

As for politics in Germany's south-west: The Green party in Baden-Württemberg gets a bonus problem. The government of Baden-Württemberg owns 45% of their utility and with that, 45% of several NPP. Shutting them down will be a major financial disaster, creating billion-euro size holes in their budget. Not shutting them down will be a major electoral disaster. Morton's fork at its best.

[blackshoe]

Morton's fork, indeed. Well, I wish them luck.

[Gerben42]

Additional information about what I am working on in Germany at the moment:

 

The ministery for environment, nature conservation and reactor safety has created, in addition to the European stress test for NPP, several criteria to decide which reactors can stay online and which cannot. These questions are related to safety issues that are mostly related to Fukushima like impact from the outside (earthquake, flooding, airplane crash as accident or as terrorist attack, and outside explosion). In addition, fuel pool accidents and long-term power outage are reviewed. It is certain that the bar will be put so high that some of the existing plants that were shut down will not be reactivated. My job is to work on the analyses and to create emergency planning for such scenarios. The decision which plants live and which don't is of course between the government and the utilities.