Your lead against 3NT

[jogs]

[hv=pc=n&s=s72hkqtdaq86ckq52&w=sa43ha85djt43ct94&n=sk5hj72dk92cj8763&e=sqjt986h9643d75ca&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1np2np3nppp]399|300[/hv]

I did lead a small ♦. My partner said that a Major lead was obvious after this bidding, but I thought leading my longest suit was better with 2 entries.

 

They didn't stayman. A major is right quite often. 50/50 guess between spades and hearts.

 

You shouldn't have posted the results so quickly.

[gnasher]

My simulation tells me that:

 

A♠ = 384

3♠ = 339

A♥ = 369

5♥ = 343

J♦ = 375

T♣ = 401

 

(times the lead defeats 3NT on 1k hand sample)

 

So I am leading a club next time I am dealt this hand.

 

Your simulation says that leading ♠A is 15 points better than leading ♥A. Common sense says that it can't be better to lead an ace from A43 than from A85. That suggests that a difference of 15 isn't large enough for us to draw any conclusions. Given that, I don't see why you think that the difference of 17 between a club and ♠A is significant.

[bluecalm]

Your simulation says that leading ♠A is 15 points better than leading ♥A. Common sense says that it can't be better to lead an ace from A43 than from A85. That suggests that a difference of 15 isn't large enough for us to draw any conclusions. Given that, I don't see why you think that the difference of 17 between a club and ♠A is significant.

 

I took average for Axx and the difference is quite big.

Lead from A8x is probably in fact worse though (cause 8 could be a trick). I will run it on bigger sample out of curiosity.

In my opinion those A leads only works double dummy though as in real life it could be difficult to switch in time to other suit which double dummy player always does.

[sathyab]

Everybody wrong, only a spade will defeat it?

 

Or ♥ Ace and ♠ switch.

[gwnn]

Or ♥ Ace and ♠ switch.

or ♣.