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Your lead against 3NT


kgr

  

25 members have voted

  1. 1. Your Lead?

    • Spade
      0
    • Heart
      2
    • Diamond
      20
    • Club
      3


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Here both minor leads could help declarer, but Diamonds may also easily be needed to score the 5th trick in defense. So I'll lead my 4th.

BTW, imo, leading any Major is terrible with Axx.

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Low diamond also.

 

The auction does suggest a passive lead so you could maybe make a case for a club if they were 1098 so it was completely safe. But it doesn't seem right to lead my worst suit instead of my best suit when either could blow a trick but probably won't.

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[hv=pc=n&s=s72hkqtdaq86ckq52&w=sa43ha85djt43ct94&n=sk5hj72dk92cj8763&e=sqjt986h9643d75ca&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1np2np3nppp]399|300[/hv]

I did lead a small . My partner said that a Major lead was obvious after this bidding, but I thought leading my longest suit was better with 2 entries.

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[hv=pc=n&s=s72hkqtdaq86ckq52&w=sa43ha85djt43ct94&n=sk5hj72dk92cj8763&e=sqjt986h9643d75ca&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1np2np3nppp]399|300[/hv]

I did lead a small . My partner said that a Major lead was obvious after this bidding, but I thought leading my longest suit was better with 2 entries.

 

congratulate him on having his 20/20 hindsight corrected but his vision is still off :)

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[hv=pc=n&s=s72hkqtdaq86ckq52&w=sa43ha85djt43ct94&n=sk5hj72dk92cj8763&e=sqjt986h9643d75ca&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1np2np3nppp]399|300[/hv]

I did lead a small . My partner said that a Major lead was obvious after this bidding, but I thought leading my longest suit was better with 2 entries.

 

Your partner is a result merchant.

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I did lead a small . My partner said that a Major lead was obvious after this bidding, but I thought leading my longest suit was better with 2 entries.

 

As you can see from the comments by experienced players, it's pretty obvious NOT to lead a major :)

 

Like everybody else, I'd blow a trick with my small diamond lead.

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My simulation tells me that:

 

A = 384

3 = 339

A = 369

5 = 343

J = 375

T = 401

 

(times the lead defeats 3NT on 1k hand sample)

 

So I am leading a club next time I am dealt this hand.

This is the second time lately when I would expect major suit lead to be a winner but it isn't. Last time it was Kxx holdings now Axx.

If we substitute our Axx of spades to 8xx then the results would be:

 

- 388

A - 326

5 - 315

J - 294

x - 309

T - 351

 

It seems that underleading Hxx sucks even double dummy. Obviously it's even worse in practical play.

 

EDIT:

For Q43 A85 JT43 T94 the results are:

 

3 - 205

A - 253

5[hearts= - 249

J - 238

4 - 251

T - 285

 

and for the same hand with Jxx of spades:

 

x - 327

A - 299

x - 295

T - 325

 

and the last one for Txx of spades:

 

3 - 396

A - 363

5 - 350

3 - 352

T - 399

 

The trend is clear: if there safe major suit lead available it's the best. If not, clubs > diamonds.

I have found that 1k hand sample still have some variance but is quite reliable (by that I mean that if the difference is 25+ hands it's rarely due to luck).

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