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catch22

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T, spade is probably close.

In such problems it's important if they open 1NT wit 5M and if they play puppet stayman (if they do then major suit lead is more attractive).

 

EDIT:

My oracle says, that my intuition was wrong.

Assuming no puppet stayman and 5M possible for 1NT opener the results of simulation for 5k hands are:

4 854

T[hearts 782

5 850

3 754

 

I change my mind to spade especially because simulation assumptions are the worst for major suit lead (no puppet, always open 1NT with 5M, always bash 3NT wit 4M-3-3-3).

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