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Not the Best


rogerclee

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It looks like the clubs are 86xx-Q10x - with four cards, RHO probably wouldn't have wasted his 10.

 

I need at least ten tricks. I'll start by running J. If LHO has the queen, he will find this hard to cover; if RHO wins the queen, maybe he'll get the wrong idea of my shape and switch to a diamond.

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Matchpoints

 

[hv=pc=n&s=skqj4hj74daj75cak&n=sa963hkt8dt8cj973&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=ppp2np3nppp]266|200[/hv]

Maybe you don't like the bidding.

 

LHO leads the 6 (attitude) you play the 7, and RHO plays the T.

Obviously, most of the field is in 4, making 10+ tricks, unless West has got doubleton Heart and finds the lead.

 

In 4 otherwise, there's also a good chance for 11 tricks on the same Club lead (East appears to have QTx) if the Heart are guessable : take lead, duck Diamond (they are not 5-2), ruff a Diamond small, club to hand, ruff Diamond High, ruff out Q, trump, Heart toward dummy. But there's nothing we can do about that when we play 3NT.

 

Our target is to make 9 tricks when Hearts are 2-5 (beat 4S), and 10 tricks otherwise.

At trick 1 we have made a good job : East will place us with AKx.

 

If we finesse the Q and it fails, East will have a good picture of our HCP : we should have 28 HCP (do we always open 19 counts ?), and he will know about the Heart and Club situation, probably (that's 8 of the 12 missing from his POV). If (1) he has a Diamond honor, he probably won't play one now because his partner only asset rates to be a (small) Spade honor. So he'll play a Heart back and we'll probably be dead ; if (2) he doesn't have a Diamond honor he'll play Diamond, and we'll also be in a bad situation. Hence we hope that West has the Heart Queen if we happen to play a Heart.

 

A good play seems to be [2]J covered to the King (East should normally duck with the Ace to offer us a chance to go wrong on the next turn). [3] to Ace, [45]KQ of Spade and if Spades are 3-2 [6] J to Ace [7] Club.

 

East to play.

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