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Declarer play problem for a change


bluecalm

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The 3 bid is quite strange, and I suspect the Spades are 6-2. Anyway I don't see what I can do with that.

Main plan is to play another Spade and play a Diamond up to the King.

If South has the Ace, I can succeed only if (1) he keeps the Heart Guard (QJ9? or pard discards a "useless" Heart in 9xx?) and (2) I read the position correctly to triple squeeze him.

Anyhow, I'll play a Spade back, and decide what to do after cashing the clubs and one top Heart.

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3 is a big bid in context of this bidding with that suit.

 

I will start with A followed by another . I suspect LHO will show out discarding spade.

 

Maybe he has Qxxxx QJxx AQJ x?

 

It is hard for me to assess with how much less if any he would bid 3.

 

But i think i am going to play J, his best defense would be to win and return big . I should win and play a low towards T. This lines makes if he has exactly that hand, RHO having 9xx. There are 4 shapes with LHO having QJ9x and 6 with QJxx.. but then again that 9 could add chance that he does bid 3.

 

But maybe he has Qxxxx Q9xx AQx x and simple finesse is needed. Hard to assess.

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Win, cross with a club and lead a diamond, covering whatever North plays. If spades are 6-2 I can make whenever North has either A or QJ of diamonds. This still retains the option of South coming under pressure if he has QJ9 of hearts but I wouldn't want to depend on that.
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But maybe he has Qxxxx Q9xx AQx x and simple finesse is needed. Hard to assess.

 

I suspect that is not going to be good enough. South wins the diamond queen and clears spades. They win 3 and 2.

 

The bidding is difficult to place in context. South has five or six spades to the Queen-nine at best. No club honor, and at most the QJ. So we can mark him with the diamond ACE and in all likelyhood the Q and probably the J. They are primed to win 3 and 2 if we play on diamonds. The best hope is the South has either any four hearts or specifically the heart QJ9 In that case, running all four clubs will lead to discard problems for him. After we play the first five tricks (A and QJAK, he needs to come down to 8 cards. He can not keep enough spades, hearts and diamonds among those eight cards to cause problems. If he discards a low heart (not the nine), he can't have held the QJ9 tripleton. If he discards QJ you know what to do. If he discards two low hearts and a low diamond, play him for four hearts initially and duck a heart. If he keeps a bunch of spades and discards one heart and only low diamonds, you still have to play him for 4 and duck a heart. If he discards nine of hearts and the Q, it is harder. Does he have QJ tight in hearts and still have AJ of diamonds? Or has he got stiff diamond Ace. Or was the nine a trick from Q9x, or QJ9x.

 

Anyway, run clubs and try to work it out.

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