Lead against 2S

[Poky]

MP.

 

pa - 1♥ - pa - pa

1♠ - pa - 2♠ - pa

pa - pa

 

♠Q9

♥AJ1092

♦A2

♣J842

[skorchev]

Small ♣ looks the safest. The other leads are too aggressive I think. I'm 90% sure that ruffing ♦ isn't the once way to got a trump-trick. :)

♥A is jump in the darkness.

 

However I voted for small ♣.

 

 

Stefan

[paulhar]

Partner hasn't got a lot, so it looks right to try to not give up a trick. Club looks like my best shot to avoid giving something up.

[jtfanclub]

Partner hasn't got a lot, so it looks right to try to not give up a trick. Club looks like my best shot to avoid giving something up.

Glad I'm not an expert again. :)

 

I've got a hand on one side that passed, and a hand on the other side that raised 1S to 2, instead of bidding 2H to explore game. 1S bidder rates to have 9-11 hcp, 2S bidder rates to have 6-10.

 

I only have 13, so partner's sitting there with 6-8 hcp or so. That's enough to bid with most partners, and he isn't bidding. He didn't raise, he didn't bid 1NT and convert to 2H. He let them take the bidding from us, and the one obvious reason to me for that is that he simply doesn't have hearts.

 

I think the HA may be a shot in the dark, but it's in the direction of my partner's shouting. I don't care if it's MPs or not- we likely could have bought this contract at 2H, so I need to beat 2S to get a good score. The best hope for that is two heart ruffs.

 

So that's what I'm going for. HA.

[luke warm]

♦A

[whereagles]

Don't like club lead. Only good if pard has KQ (very unlikely) or QT (a long shot). Prefer heart jack, which should be safe since pard didn't support hearts. The ace gives a great deal of the show away.

[the hog]

Intensely dislike the lead from a J . A of D might be right, but more likely is that Ace H is right.

[Fluffy]

Partner looks pretty obviously on the 6-7 range (unless they are willing to play with very poor 7 trumps :P )

 

♠ lead looks liek the worst, ♥A can be a disaster or a charm (or nothing when we force partner to ruff with tricks), ♦A can hardly be good, and is teh kind of thing that makes declarer play a safe ♠AK because of ruff danger.

 

The last one is ♣, wich can blow a trick sometimes, open the key suit before ♦ discard seldom, but often not doing anything, giving you something more to do in the hand later, wich you will probably do better than the rest, so that is my option.

[paulhar]

Partner looks pretty obviously on the 6-7 range

 

so partner's sitting there with 6-8 hcp or so.

 

I don't get it... Didn't the bidding go:

 

pa - 1♥ - pa - pa

1♠ - pa - 2♠ - pa

pa - pa

 

Am I supposed to assume a non-stardard system here, or is partner passing on a 7-count when I could have twenty?

 

That's enough to bid with most partners, and he isn't bidding.

 

So he hasn't got it. It's insulting to partner to play him for having made a mistake. Instead assume that the opponents have been conservative. Why might they do that? Maybe their trumps are of dubious quality.

 

but more likely is that Ace H is right.

 

I think the HA may be a shot in the dark, but it's in the direction of my partner's shouting.

 

I think you're partner is shouting 'I don't have enough to bid!' If the opponents do have a trump problem, then your heart ace lead, if successful, will give your partner a couple of heart ruffs, but make the opponent's HK & HQ good and one of the ruffs will likely be with a natural trump trick. So, the potential gain if right is dubious, and if partner has a doubleton heart, you may be accused of being the world's worst leader (a distinction that I've tried to rid myself of for years ;) )

 

we likely could have bought this contract at 2H

If you have this wretched 12-count and your partner passed, it's unlikely unless your opponents are Mr. & Mrs. Milquetoast. More likely that other pairs will be playing game on your opponents' cards! But that's not your concern - you can't affect your result against those pairs. You've got to try to beat the other people defending partials and it seems that safest is the way to go on this hand at MP.

 

Glad I'm not an expert again.

Even us non-experts have to disagree sometimes :(

[jtfanclub]

Am I supposed to assume a non-stardard system here, or is partner passing on a 7-count when I could have twenty?

 

That's enough to bid with most partners, and he isn't bidding.

 

So he hasn't got it.  It's insulting to partner to play him for having made a mistake.  Instead assume that the opponents have been conservative.  Why might they do that?  Maybe their trumps are of dubious quality.

 

I don't think he's made a mistake. I think he's devalued his hand for the singleton heart, and I think he's right to do so. The odds at that point that we have game are so slim that it's not worth responding. In addition, depending upon what you play, he may not have much of a choice. If, for example, you're playing plain old SA the bidding's likely to go 1H-1NT-3NT and you're too high in spite of the 24 or so hcp because of the lack of fit.

 

I'm not worried about RHO having KQxx of hearts, it's too unlikely to worry about especially given the bidding. That's about the only distribution where ruffing hearts is going to give them more heart tricks than they earn the slow way. Neither am I worried about giving up spade tricks- if my partner has Kxx or suchlike we still get a spade trick even after two spade ruffs. Again, I can think of one exact distribution where we might get equal spade tricks- JTxx. Outside of that, two heart ruffs will gain us at least one trick.

 

If you have this wretched 12-count and your partner passed, it's unlikely unless your opponents are Mr. & Mrs. Milquetoast.  More likely that other pairs will be playing game on your opponents' cards!  But that's not your concern -

 

But you're wrong, that should be your primary concern. If the other pairs are playing game, you may as well concede all thirteen tricks and move onto the next hand. If their game makes, you have a 100%. If it goes down, you have a 0%, unless your opponents somehow make two fewer tricks than they do. So throw out that possibility- it simply doesn't matter.

 

So, go with the assumption that the other people aren't at game, and work out why.

[Fluffy]

Partner looks pretty obviously on the 6-7 range

 

so partner's sitting there with 6-8 hcp or so.

 

I don't get it... Didn't the bidding go:

 

pa - 1♥ - pa - pa

1♠ - pa - 2♠ - pa

pa - pa

 

Am I supposed to assume a non-stardard system here, or is partner passing on a 7-count when I could have twenty?

You have more than 15 with this bidding? only if you have balanced 16-17 with 3 spades you can pass over 1♠ with more than 15 (otherwise you would double or bid a suit, ,or bid 1NT), therefore there si no point on competing to 2♠ without fit when our side isn´t stronger.

[Free]

♥10. Could be a wrong time to underlead my Ace, but it's only a game... ;)

[jtfanclub]

You have more than 15 with this bidding? only if you have balanced 16-17 with 3 spades you can pass over 1♠ with more than 15 (otherwise you would double or bid a suit, ,or bid 1NT), therefore there si no point on competing to 2♠ without fit when our side isn´t stronger.

I belive his point is before that...with bidding having gone P 1H P, would you have passed, say:

 

Kxx

x

Jxxxx

Kxxx

[luke warm]

You have more than 15 with this bidding? only if you have balanced 16-17 with 3 spades you can pass over 1♠ with more than 15 (otherwise you would double or bid a suit, ,or bid 1NT), therefore there si no point on competing to 2♠ without fit when our side isn´t stronger.

I belive his point is before that...with bidding having gone P 1H P, would you have passed, say:

 

Kxx

x

Jxxxx

Kxxx

after (p) 1H (p) with

 

[hv=s=skxxhxdjxxxxckxxx]133|100|[/hv]

i'd not bid 1S with a stiff heart... i have bid 1S with 3 in that situation, and will again, but what do i do over 2S? unless we have an agreement that pard never raises with 3 card support, this is too dangerous

 

i'd bid 1NT with the intentions of passing whatever pard bids

[nige1]

IMO Cx=10 DA=6 HA=4 SQ=2 HJ=1

The votes for HA puzzle me: partmer is likely to hold a singleton or doubleton heart; but why does that imply that you should set up two heart tricks for opponents; and then force partner to ruff oponent's losers with his precious trumps.

The scoring is Pairs and a club lead is fairly safe. Even if partner has no club honour, each opponent may have three cards in the suit

[paulhar]

I don't think he's made a mistake. I think he's devalued his hand for the singleton heart, and I think he's right to do so. The odds at that point that we have game are so slim that it's not worth responding. In addition, depending upon what you play, he may not have much of a choice. If, for example, you're playing plain old SA the bidding's likely to go 1H-1NT-3NT and you're too high in spite of the 24 or so hcp because of the lack of fit.

If I have 7 points and we get to a 24 point game, that means my partner is raising to game on 17. Sometimes partner will raise to two notrump on 17 but other times they might only bid 2C or 2D because they need about 19 to jump shift and you can happily pass. If partner does raise to 2NT with 17 highs and 5 hearts, I'd just soon try for +120 with 24 highs than play in my 5-1.

 

But if partner forces to game, I'm not unhappy with my 7-count.

 

Say:

 

AQxx

AKJxx

Q10

Ax

 

Here's a typical standard 1H-1NT-3NT. (No sense in showing spades, partner hasn't got 4 unless you play Flannery.)

 

It doesn't fit all that well with your Kxx, x, Jxxxx, Kxxx. And yet, you have 3S, 2H, 2C, can promote a diamond, and your ninth trick can come from a heart finess or 3-3 spades. Pretty good game. And yet the 7-count didn't make a mistake passing one heart.

 

But that's not the main reason for bidding over 1H.

 

Say opener has: Qx, AJ109x, Ax, Jxxx. Wouldn't you rather play 2C than 1H? Wouldn't you rather play 2C than defend 2S? (Harder for opp to overcall 2S than 1S)

[jtfanclub]

IMO Cx=10 DA=6 HA=4 SQ=2 HJ=1

The votes for HA puzzle me: partmer is likely to hold a singleton or doubleton heart; but why does that imply that you should set up two heart tricks for opponents; and then force partner to ruff oponent's losers with his precious trumps.

The scoring is Pairs and a club lead is fairly safe. Even if partner has no club honour, each opponent may have three cards in the suit.

OK, here's a hand where a club lead is fatal, a HA lead is golden:

 

[hv=s=saxxhxdxxxxxcqxxx]133|100|[/hv]

 

What hand is it that you think partner is likely to have where the club lead is golden and the H lead is fatal? The only cases I've thought of is where RHO has HKQxx or partner has SJTxx. Even if you agree with me and not Paul that your partner may have 7 hcp, one of the minor suits is likely to be wide open after your ace gets knocked out. Unless they each have 3 cards in each minor, those heart losers aren't losers.

 

Maybe I'm missing something.

[jtfanclub]

But if partner forces to game, I'm not unhappy with my 7-count.

 

Say:

 

AQxx

AKJxx

Q10

Ax

 

Here's a typical standard 1H-1NT-3NT. (No sense in showing spades, partner hasn't got 4 unless you play Flannery.)

 

It doesn't fit all that well with your Kxx, x, Jxxxx, Kxxx. And yet, you have 3S, 2H, 2C, can promote a diamond, and your ninth trick can come from a heart finess or 3-3 spades. Pretty good game. And yet the 7-count didn't make a mistake passing one heart.

 

But that's not the main reason for bidding over 1H.

 

Say opener has: Qx, AJ109x, Ax, Jxxx. Wouldn't you rather play 2C than 1H? Wouldn't you rather play 2C than defend 2S? (Harder for opp to overcall 2S than 1S)

Turn that QD into the seven. Are you telling me that you would no longer bid 3NT? Or that 3NT actually has play? Would you really make a non-forcing 2C call there?

 

After 1H-1NT (nf), I expect my partner to raise to 3 with an 18-20 count. He's a lot more likely to hold the 18 than the 20. And this no longer has any play.

 

At 2S, assuming that I get my happy HA lead, it's HA H ruff, DA H ruff, we still have a spade winner and a club winner. Down 1.

 

Qx, AJ109x, Ax, Jxxx.

 

Wouldn't you rather play 2C than defend 2S?  (Harder for opp to overcall 2S than 1S)

 

Sometimes partner will raise to two notrump on 17 but other times they might only bid 2C or 2D because they need about 19 to jump shift and you can happily pass.

 

So let me get this straight. Over 1NT, you'd bid 2C both with the 12 count balanced pile of garbage in the original hand, and with an 18 count?

 

Must be entertaining.

[paulhar]

Turn that QD into the seven. Are you telling me that you would no longer bid 3NT? Or that 3NT actually has play? Would you really make a non-forcing 2C call there?

 

No, I'd make a non-forcing 2NT call which shows more than a 1NT opener but not enough to open 2NT (which I play 20-21.) I believe that 1H-1NT-2NT shows the same strength as 1H-1S-2NT.

 

IMO, a 2C rebid shows 4.

 

So let me get this straight. Over 1NT, you'd bid 2C both with the 12 count balanced pile of garbage in the original hand, and with an 18 count?

 

Yes. I like to have 19 points before forcing to game versus a minimum response. I can always invite with less. If partner passes 2C, I'm probably not missing much. With 8-10, frequently partner will take a preference or bid a 6-card diamond suit or something. Since partner limited his hand with 1NT, some 8-10's with clubs will raise. If the 1NT was forcing, this is still true, since the 11-12s with clubs can bid 2S (impossible to be natural) to show a 'super-accept'.

 

So, when I have 18, I'll often get a chance to bid again to show extras.

 

Must be entertaining.

Seems to work for me.

 

Actually, it makes sense to have a wider range for the lower bids to give you more room to discuss things, whereas the bids like 1H-1NT-2NT which take up a lot of room and force partner to **** or get off the pot should be a narrow range. And jumps to game should expect to have reasonable play for game opposite a minimum hand.

[jtfanclub]

Seems to work for me.

And jumps to game should expect to have reasonable play for game opposite a minimum hand.

OK, well, if it works for you it works for you.

 

You must miss a heck of a lot of 18 across 9 games, though.

 

The point is, without the misfit you'd want to be in game with 18 across 7. So a 7 point hand that won't have reasonable play across an expected shape 18 should devalue the hand. Then with 18 you can bid 3NT (or reverse), with 16 you can bid 2NT, and with 14 you can pass 1NT. It makes life much simpler.