Balancing with 5-1-4-3

[Ant590]

Hey all,

 

Been a while since I last posted so I thought I'd put up a problem that has divided the experts I know.

 

You hold

♠AKJxx

♥x

♦xxxx

♣Qxx

 

IMPs, nil all, LHO deals and bids 4 hearts:

 

(4♥) - pass - (pass) - ?

[helene_t]

I wouldn't pass but as for dbl vs 4♠ I don't feel strongly about it.

[wyman]

I just think it's funny that either our side's bids are in parentheses or we're about to call out of turn :)

 

edit: I can live with either also. I prefer X to invite partner into the discussion (or in case he has a trap pass), but I think we'll get a level too high too often, so in practice I'll probably try 4S.

[Ant590]

I just think it's funny that either our side's bids are in parentheses or we're about to call out of turn :)

 

Ah thanks - fixed now

[whereagles]

It's a guess and my guess is dbl.

[daveharty]

4S, accept the transfer.

[Fluffy]

4♠, with this suit quality we will hardly be doubled. Double is acceptable with bad spades and/or a defensive hand.

[bluecalm]

Simulation time but unfortunately I am not at home and can't run it.

My wild guess is 4S.

[gnasher]

I'd double, and I don't like 4♠ at all. If I bid 4♠, partner will pass it, almost regardless of what he has.

 

This is a bit simplistic, but in terms of getting us to a sensible contract:

- Double gains when partner has 0, 1 or 2 spades.

- 4♠ gains when partner has three spades but would take out a double to five of a minor, and when partner has four spades but would leave in a double.

- When he has three spades and would pass a double, it's probably about evens whether we want to bid 4♠ or not, so either action might be right.

 

To me, that doesn't seem very close.

[Hanoi5]

Though I admitted that I was tempted to pass after thinking about double and 4♠, a simulation showed me that 4♠ is better because when it doesn't make it usually turns out to be a good sacrifice. Minors suck according to that simulation.

[xxhong]

It won't be an easy problem to do simulations. First you really need to know your opps' style.

Do they preempt too much, which means that they overbid with many many 7 card broken H suit( or even some 6 card suit)? If that's the case, the chance would be that they most likely can't make 4H and your chance to make 4S is also rather slim. So against such opps, pass would be good.

If they are really serious with their 4H openings and often preempt on the heavy side of the whole spectrum, you should probably bid 4S, because they may have a tough time to double you when they can probably make 4H. However, you also need to know about your RHO, does he make very light penalty doubles purely based on trump stacks? If that's the case, you should just pass and wait for the nuts. If he is a very conservative doubler ( could be due to his partner's aggressiveness), you should tend to bid 4S again. Without any information, it would be just a guess and any of the three bids can work very well or very badly, well, perhaps not the pass.

[AlexJonson]

4S seemed immediately clearly to me.

 

Little reasoning, so I could easily be persuaded that a champion had a reason to do something different, whatever that might be.

[gszes]

At MP if u wish to pass and try to set it is perfectly fine but at IMPS (only 1 board) it is a much scarier proposition

because we could easily be losing a double game swing so we need to take out insurance.

 

4s seems to be the best insurance with good quality suit it is hard for opps to x

 

we can make game on as little as

 

xxxxx

xxx

Ax

Axx

 

and have to hope to set 4h 1 trick

[wclass___]

Pass.

♦xxxx ♣Qxx sucks for offense, and ♠AKJxx is also quite defensive.

LHO probably didn't bid 4♥ with 7222, so expect something to break badly.

[gordontd]

At MP if u wish to pass and try to set it is perfectly fine but at IMPS (only 1 board) it is a much scarier proposition

because we could easily be losing a double game swing so we need to take out insurance.

 

4s seems to be the best insurance with good quality suit it is hard for opps to x

 

we can make game on as little as

 

xxxxx

xxx

Ax

Axx

 

and have to hope to set 4h 1 trick

With this hand you'll play in 4♠ opposite a double anyway.

[tolvyrj]

If i am going to bid anything... lets say yes; its 4♠. And why, because prd leaves it in with as little as 2 trump tricks and my hand represent 1 trick in defence.

[Ant590]

Thanks to everyone for their replies.

 

With the hand I doubled, and partner put me in 6♠, reasoning that I should be much stronger to double. I appreciate that this is an irrelevant piece of information for the thread, but I like a bit of closure.

 

The general consensus locally was that 4♠ is probably the `correct' but, with a few diehard doublers. Very few passers, I guess around the same margin as the 19% of votes here.

 

Ant.

[gordontd]

Thanks to everyone for their replies.

 

With the hand I doubled, and partner put me in 6♠, reasoning that I should be much stronger to double. I appreciate that this is an irrelevant piece of information for the thread, but I like a bit of closure.

 

The general consensus locally was that 4♠ is probably the `correct' but, with a few diehard doublers. Very few passers, I guess around the same margin as the 19% of votes here.

 

Ant.

What did your partner have for the 6♠ bid?

[gwnn]

I'd double, and I don't like 4♠ at all. If I bid 4♠, partner will pass it, almost regardless of what he has.

 

This is a bit simplistic, but in terms of getting us to a sensible contract:

- Double gains when partner has 0, 1 or 2 spades.

- 4♠ gains when partner has three spades but would take out a double to five of a minor, and when partner has four spades but would leave in a double.

- When he has three spades and would pass a double, it's probably about evens whether we want to bid 4♠ or not, so either action might be right.

 

To me, that doesn't seem very close.

But is it really likely, for instance, that partner has 0 or 1 spade?

[Fluffy]

your partner is one of those like me that like to apss and then punish partner for reopning lol.

[gnasher]

But is it really likely, for instance, that partner has 0 or 1 spade?

Probably not, but it's also not that likely that he has four spades and a hand that would pass a takeout double. Two and three are quite likely numbers.

[jogs]

your partner is one of those like me that like to apss and then punish partner for reopning lol.

 

Plenty of players play that way. Very few admit it.

[bluecalm]

After looking at some generated hands my opinion is now that 4♠ is the worst bid by far.

Double and pass are close but double is a bit better.

 

EDIT: I've changed my mind again; my friend pointed out that I estimated 4M opener range wrong. I assumed it's purely preemptive while many people open (semi)constructive hands that way.

After this adjustment I am convinced pass is the best action and it's not particularly close.

[han]

I think that 4S is considerably better than double. I would almost go as far as saying that double is a strange call that few would consider at the table, but for some strange reason looks attractive on a forum.

 

Passing over 4H and then jumping to slam should be forbidden. You should put a rule in your system book: we do not jump to slam after partner's first call in balancing seat. An obvious exception to this rule is when partner shows strength by jumping.

[655321]

After looking at some generated hands my opinion is now that 4♠ is the worst bid by far.

Double and pass are close but double is a bit better.

 

EDIT: I've changed my mind again; my friend pointed out that I estimated 4M opener range wrong. I assumed it's purely preemptive while many people open (semi)constructive hands that way.

After this adjustment I am convinced pass is the best action and it's not particularly close.

 

First you said 4♠ was best, then you said Double was best, now Pass 'is the best action and it's not particularly close'! (I recall that in another thread you bragged that your intuition is "quite well founded though by analyzing tons of vugraph hands"). Here is a challenge for you. Find some vugraph hands with a singleton heart where good players passed out a 4♥ opening. What is the strongest hand with 5 spades and 1 heart that a good player passed with? I wonder if there will be any such hands at all.