wyman Posted February 9, 2011 Report Share Posted February 9, 2011 Opps are strong. r/w IMPs, Let's say it's the 4th board of an 8 board match; no huge swings so far. [hv=pc=n&s=sa976hak85dcq9763&d=w&v=n&b=12&a=1s3c4c]133|200[/hv] 6♣ looks to be the spot; if p has AKxxxxx, we might make a grand. I considered 4D enroute to 5C enroute to 6C, hopefully creating a force for the opps in the process and hopefully lessening the chance that they sac in 6S (and heightening the chance that they smash 6C), and I considered 6C directly. I dismissed 5C directly for fear that it'd float. Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtK78 Posted February 9, 2011 Report Share Posted February 9, 2011 At this vul, your opps are going to bid one more no matter what level you go to. So, your best option is to try to confuse the matter as much as possible. Passing here may do the trick. Another option is to bid 4 of a red suit, hoping to create a diversion. But I think that pass is best. The question is what to do if 4♠ comes back to you. I believe that if you have the guts to just bid 5♣ you will hear the opponents bid one more in spades. Then you can bid 6♣ and hope to play it there (possibly doubled?). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karlson Posted February 9, 2011 Report Share Posted February 9, 2011 "Does 4♣ create a forcing pass?""Not if you ask." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted February 9, 2011 Report Share Posted February 9, 2011 Why can't we just bid 4♠ showing a strong hand with support? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wyman Posted February 9, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2011 "Does 4♣ create a forcing pass?""Not if you ask." lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aguahombre Posted February 9, 2011 Report Share Posted February 9, 2011 (edited) With my luck I would be defending 4C undoubled by East. See rulings on brain freezes vs. unintended calls. Comparing with teammates: push (6SX) ---NEXT. Edited February 9, 2011 by aguahombre Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pooltuna Posted February 9, 2011 Report Share Posted February 9, 2011 At this vul, your opps are going to bid one more no matter what level you go to. So, your best option is to try to confuse the matter as much as possible. Passing here may do the trick. Another option is to bid 4 of a red suit, hoping to create a diversion. But I think that pass is best. The question is what to do if 4♠ comes back to you. I believe that if you have the guts to just bid 5♣ you will hear the opponents bid one more in spades. Then you can bid 6♣ and hope to play it there (possibly doubled?). right after Art's pass the second choice is IMO a direct 7♣ as it looks cold if partner has 3♦ and 7♣. Those and 3 major suit winners = 13. So you foist the last guess on them when they can't tell if you are trying to jack them up to the 7 level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_20686 Posted February 9, 2011 Report Share Posted February 9, 2011 I would bid 6C now, and 7C over 6S I think. I think it will be a win if I can play in clubs at any level, as it is not that unlikely that 6S is cheap against game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wyman Posted February 9, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2011 right after Art's pass the second choice is IMO a direct 7♣ as it looks cold if partner has 3♦ and 7♣. Those and 3 major suit winners = 13. So you foist the last guess on them when they can't tell if you are trying to jack them up to the 7 level. His 7 clubs must include the ace. /statingtheobviousbutnotnecessarilywhatwillhappeninpractice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtvesuvius Posted February 9, 2011 Report Share Posted February 9, 2011 I'm really really tempted by 7♣. Neither opponent will have any idea what's going on, and on a hand like this, I'd like to give them the last guess. My second choice would be pass followed by 6♣. I think I'd go for 7♣ though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted February 9, 2011 Report Share Posted February 9, 2011 His 7 clubs must include the ace. /statingtheobviousbutnotnecessarilywhatwillhappeninpracticeI have been in worse than 87.5% grand slams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wyman Posted February 9, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2011 I have been in worse than 87.5% grand slams. Heh, if I thought it was legitimately 87.5% that my partner held the club ace, I may have bid 7 also, especially since they may phantom sac. But partner's allowed to hold KJ10xxxx here, especially with what may well be a spade void. Not to mention, if he has AKxxxxx of clubs and anything outside (not crazy if this hand is being bid on shape from all 4 seats), he has to choose between 2C and 3/4 clubs. I'm certainly not saying he can't have the ace, just that I don't think he holds it enough to make it worth guessing to bid 7♣ (and virtually guaranteeing a X on this auction) versus a possible 6cx (= or +1) if I can get there. edit: and the 'getting there' was why I made the thread in the first place. At the table, I punted 6♣ and got smashed. Afterwards, opp lamented something about trusting his vulnerable opponents... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted February 9, 2011 Report Share Posted February 9, 2011 Partner has 7 of the 8 outstanding clubs. Sounds like 87.5% that he has the ace, in first approximation! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wyman Posted February 9, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2011 Partner has 7 of the 8 outstanding clubs. Sounds like 87.5% that he has the ace, in first approximation! I understood where the number came from. I was saying that on many of those hands, he may make a call other than 3C. Actually, he probably can't have enough to call 2C, so maybe my argument is bunk (however, I stand by the < 87% claim). Here's why: I have 13 HCP. Opener has at least 11 or so. Responder has a good 9 or 10+ (note that opps have at most 9 spades between them, so someone's bidding on values here). So even if everyone at the table is minimum, partner still "can't" hold the AKJ of clubs. So if you want to make an argument about a missing club, it's almost surely an honor, which -- to first approximation -- would make the grand about 67%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gszeszycki Posted February 9, 2011 Report Share Posted February 9, 2011 BID 4D!!!!!!! We intend to bid at least 6c anyway and since we have no logical way to differentiatebtn p having the KJTxxxx and AJTxxxx bidding more than 6c is las vegas. Bidding 4d here lets p know how to defend if opps go to 6s/7s. Always make bids that help partner when able. If your p passes thinking its natural get a new partner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtvesuvius Posted February 9, 2011 Report Share Posted February 9, 2011 Bidding 4d here lets p know how to defend if opps go to 6s/7s. Always make bids that help partner when able. If your p passes thinking its natural get a new partner.Don't worry, partner will just raise to six. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wyman Posted February 9, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2011 Don't worry, partner will just raise to six. At least 7♣ is 87.5%... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtvesuvius Posted February 10, 2011 Report Share Posted February 10, 2011 At least 7♣ is 87.5%...I'm not claiming 7♣ is clearly right, but I think 4♦ is going a bit too far. Anyway, this is a good problem Brian... I do agree that partner doesn't *have* to have the ♣A, but R/W I think they rate to have it extremely often. Even if we are off the ♣A, if opener doesn't have it they still have a guess. Perhaps with unforgiving partner(s), it may be best not to punt 7♣ and take the low road. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the hog Posted February 10, 2011 Report Share Posted February 10, 2011 Why can't we just bid 4♠ showing a strong hand with support? I agree with this. I am always bemused by those who try to "walk the dog". These tactics only work against weak players. I would push for 7C after my 4S bid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Echognome Posted February 10, 2011 Report Share Posted February 10, 2011 I must be missing something, so please tell me where this logic is wrong. Even if partner has ♣AKxxxxx, don't we need him to have at least 3 diamonds in order to make grand? As an example, if partner has: ♠x♥xxx♦xx♣AKxxxxx Now we can ruff two diamonds in dummy and we still have a heart loser. I don't see any likely squeeze combinations. I understand that it's likelier that partner has 3+ diamonds given that it's our void and that opponents have shown 8-9 spades. I guess if we feel absolutely sure that partner has a spade void, then the only shape we worry about is 0=4=2=7 and we would still make if he had the ♥Q or the ♥J with the Q falling. I guess we would have to put odds on 1=3=2=7 and 0=4=2=7 versus the rest of the shapes. I don't know how much that would trim our initial estimate of 87.5%, but it should knock it down a little bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nigel_k Posted February 10, 2011 Report Share Posted February 10, 2011 It's really a two part question: where do we want to be and what is the best way to get there? I want to be in 6♣. The a priori likelihood of making 13 tricks is only part of the answer because when 7♣ fails you will play there and when it doesn't they will often sacrifice for no more than the value of your small slam. Anyway I think the 87.5% is wishful thinking since partner could be 1327, 0427, 0436 or 0346 and maybe even 1336, in addition to the hands where we are off the ace of clubs. As for how to get there, I think you have to vary your tactics in these situations. Sometimes jump to 6♣, sometimes use Blackwood, sometimes cue bid. I quite like Blackwood here because they are more likely to value the ♦A and because so many people bid Blackwood on bad hands as a fake show of strength. The fact that they 'know' you could never stop in five after Blackwood and were never going to bid seven anyway (because they have an ace and your partner showed two key cards) tends to support this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vampyr Posted February 10, 2011 Report Share Posted February 10, 2011 Partner has 7 of the 8 outstanding clubs. Sounds like 87.5% that he has the ace, in first approximation!My partners never have 7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcphee Posted February 10, 2011 Report Share Posted February 10, 2011 I would like to take the maximum number of tricks should they happen to save against my slam. Therefore I like bidding 4D. If dear partner ever happened to raise D I would mark my chances in 7C a lot higher than the quoted 87.5% B) Partner has good C, there is no room for him to have anything else. We do know he does not have the death wish shape of 2-2-2-7 given this cue bid. They may even be void in S which will increase the chances to hold 3H, but at least allows us to dump one on the S ace. It seems to me that my lho has opened on a distributional pointed suit hand. I believe it is reasonable to go the distance, 7C could very well be a wrap and even though I will never be sure, I am more than willing to take this risk. If he does not have 7 C we are going to need to have a discussion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wyman Posted February 10, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2011 I'm not claiming 7♣ is clearly right, but I think 4♦ is going a bit too far. I wasn't crucifying 7♣; I don't think it's that bad. Sarcasm and, in particular, tone have a way of manifesting themselves in strange ways on the internet. Your response to someone's 4♦ bid was something about partner possibly raising to 6, and I was just pointing out that worst case, we can still bid 7♣ which is not where we want to be, but it has chances. I was poking fun (benignly, ftr) at cherdano's 87.5% estimate in passing. Sorry if you took this the wrong way. Partner raising to 6♦ is an outside chance, but on this auction, it's unlikely P will have a 6-level decision. He already preempted; no need to preempt again over the very likely 4♠ from lefty. Everyone's minimum here. Besides, partner knows that sometimes I need to make a lead-director here. Raising is fine, of course, but I think jumping is a little nuts. And when I bid 6♣ over 5♦ (5♠) or 5♦ (p), now opps have to figure out what's going on. Did we just get too high? Are we in a force? Was his 4♦ bid serious? Etc. Anyway, this is a good problem Brian... I do agree that partner doesn't *have* to have the ♣A, but R/W I think they rate to have it extremely often. Even if we are off the ♣A, if opener doesn't have it they still have a guess. Perhaps with unforgiving partner(s), it may be best not to punt 7♣ and take the low road. We (both juniors, in which I'll lump myself despite my being slightly (and ever-increasingly) age handicapped, and "adv+" in which I'll lump myself despite the mass of evidence to the contrary) generally have a lighter/more aggressive preempting style, colors notwithstanding. My thoughts on this were:(a) 3♣ might not be bid at the other table, so this might be a routine 4♠ over there, and 7♣-1 might be a disaster whereas 6♣+1 might not. e.g., AJ10xxx and out (+4 diamonds + 1/1 clubs) might not preempt at the other table, and partner might. Some people are "don't preempt with a void" people or "vul you need 2 of the top 3" or .... ; certainly the same goes for KJ10xxx(x), which some may find too ratty to preempt, but here we only make 6( b )Assume the auction did start (1♠) 3♣ at the other table. People are generally bad at bidding grands, especially in competition. Again, here, this means missing the grand is less costly when it works. Bidding it and going down is a disaster. With this in mind, I was firm in my resolve to play 6-and only 6-clubs (hopefully doubled!), but I didn't know whether the "right" approach here was to punt (as I did, but I think vulnerable this way increases the chances of defending 6♠x and never getting a diamond ruff) or to do something else (e.g., 4♦, which has its obvious flaws but also has some redeeming qualities). I think this is a good problem as well, and thanks to all for the input. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pooltuna Posted February 10, 2011 Report Share Posted February 10, 2011 As everyone seems to keep forgetting the conditions (V vs NV; yes YOU are V & you are playing IMPS) I assume they personally know your partner. Consequently, since I don't, would you please confirm his lack of sanity so I can understand the bad preemptive 3♣ hands so many seem to know he is likely to hold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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