50-50?

[djehuti]

[hv=pc=n&s=skq7ha2dajt98c432&n=s32hkj43dk32caq65&d=s&v=n&b=15&a=1np2c2sppdp3nppp]266|200[/hv]

 

T1: ♠4 , 2 , A , 7

T2: ♠5, K , ♣ 7 , ♠3

T3:♦J, Q, K ,4

T4:♦2, 5, A, ♣8

T5:♥ A , 7,3,6

 

Please feel free to offer a different line up to this point.

 

Right hand is 7♠ 4♦.From here, for 12 tricks, you will allways get them if both round honors are inside. What about if either of them is stiff with East now? is this a 50-50 guess?

[karlson]

There's no need to finesse anything -- if you cash either the ♥K or ♣A and righty follows suit, you can claim on the marked squeeze. If they show out you'll just need the other finesse to work, coupled with the marked squeeze.

 

I'd play lefty for 6 clubs and cash the ♥Q. I think it's too unnatural to pitch two clubs from JT987 before pitching any hearts from QT98xx. Righty's small spade return may well be suit preference, but he probably knows there are not many tricks coming and could easily be screwing with us.

[manudude03]

I'd finesse clubs since Qx offside is more likely than stiff K offside (the 2 club discards does suggest you should play hearts instead, but I'll go with my gut). If the finesse works, you have a 100% squeeze against west.

[nigel_k]

If you take a rounded suit finesse and East follows small, the other rounded suit finesse is guaranteed. If East shows out, there is a show-up squeeze on West so you can still collect East's stiff honour. The only question is which finesse to take.

 

The heart finesse is correct if they have x Q1098xx Q J109xx and AJ109xxx x xxxx K

The club finesse is correct if they have x 1098xx Q KJ109xx and AJ109xxx Qx xxxx -

 

We need to consider:

A. West's failure to act directly over 1NT. This slightly favours the second layout.

B. West leading his stiff spade instead of his own suit. This slightly favours the first layout.

C. East's failure to bid more than 2♠. This also favours the first layout.

 

So I would take the heart finesse.

 

If they're not very good they would normally discard from their six card suit first though.

[karlson]

On second thought, cashing a top card in one suit is completely equivalent to finessing now in the other one in terms of layouts picked up. But finessing now at least still gives me 11 tricks when I'm wrong whereas finessing in the ending will be 9 or 10. So I would take the club finesse now.

[rhm]

The ♣ finesse is obvious.

LHO does not know enough about the hand to be able to discard 2 cards from JTxxx in ♣.

He would look silly if you held the ♣king.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[dellache]

Agree with Rainer that ♣finesse is totally obvious (and leads to 12 tricks 99% of the time via the upcoming squeeze).

Long version:

In practice if West doesn't have both honors he will have x xxxxx Q KJT987 for his discards (discarding 78♣ is easy).

In theory we lose if West has x Qxxxxx Q JT987.

Totally unlikely ?... Hmmmmmm.... if West comes from Jupiter he could make the following reasoning in 10 steps :

1- South has KQx+♠ (no 2nd round finesse) ;

2- South doesn't have KQJx (he would have left the double) ;

3- East knew that "small spade" costs nothing : he has 7 Spades ;

4- South has ♠KQx exactly

5- West "sees" 5+13+5 = 23 HCP in W-N-E hands respectively. 17HCP are missing.

6- South has ♥Ace by counting HCPs.

7- If South has ♣K, South has 11 tricks from the top (2+2+4+3), and 12 thanks to an obvious Squeeze ;

8- So West hopes that pard has the ♣K, and South upgraded a 14HCP count because he had 5♦ ;

9- So West hopes that south has the actual hand KQx Ax AJT9x xxx

10- West thinks like Rainer, and discards 2 clubs from JT9xx to induce the OBVIOUS ♣finesse.

 

Aspirin please.

[djehuti]

Any thoughts on how to proceed if west had discarded a ♣ and a ♥ ? Is it even right to cash the ♥A then?