kfay Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Came to a stalemate with karlson on this one until he ran a sim. I'm still not convinced. [hv=pc=n&s=sak83hak9da53cj64&n=s7hqt75dkqt62cak3&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=6dppp]266|200[/hv] LHO leads the ♠J, RHO follows with the 6 and you win the ACE. You lead a low ♦, LHO pitches the ♠2. Line A) You Play RHO to be 3253:T3: ♥AT4: ♠K (pitch a club)T5: ♠ruffT6-7: ♣AKT8: ♥KT9: ♣ruffT10: ♥Q from: [hv=pc=n&s=s3h9da5c&w=shdc&n=shqtdktc&e=shdj987c]399|300[/hv] Line B ) You play RHO to be 2353 or 3352T3-4: ♣AKT5-7: ♥Q, K, AT8: ♠K (RHO drops the Q, LHO does or doesn't drop the 10)T9: ? [hv=pc=n&s=s83hda5cj&w=shdc&n=shtdqt62c&e=shdj987c]399|300[/hv] What do you ruff in dummy? Opponents play optimally. What's better, Line A or Line B? What's the best play at the diagrammed position in line B? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Heart doubleton is more likely. A club doubleton is more likely than a spade doubleton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ceeb Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 I agree with Cascade as regards dealing probabilities. Given the trump break,3253 is over 14%2353 is under 10%3352 is under 12%. However, there is a restricted choice argument that in the last case LHO might well discard a club from 5305, whereas in the first case with 5404 the defender has little choice because of the excellent bidding. So if I chose line 2 I'd tend to ruff a club. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Any computation that ignores inferences from the lead is not enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Line B is definitely wrong, because of Line C: Play as in line B, but win the third heart in the North hand.If East is 2452, ruff the last heart, cash DA, and ruff a black card with the 6.If hearts are 3-3, lead the last heart, which LHO has to ruff. Overuff with the ace and guess what to ruff in hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenrexford Posted January 26, 2011 Report Share Posted January 26, 2011 Any computation that ignores inferences from the lead is not enough. Not to mention that any computation ignoring the bidding. I mean, 6♦-P-P-P was clearly not the sequence. If RHO has has only two spades, then LHO started with six of them and might have overcalled in any number of scenarios, especially with a void in trumps (and thus 6-4-3-0 shape). So, a REAL auction makes 3-card spades to the right probably a fair bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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