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looks weird, but


karlson

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Certainly 4 is normal, you'll get no argument from me.

 

Let me try to make the case for double, and you can tell me if I'm insane. Remember we're white on red.

 

In a few words: We might already be behind on the board, I expect to get 500 pretty often when partner sits and rate to get to 4 anyway when he doesn't.

 

In more words:

 

If partner passes, which I expect him to do with a decent 3-card spade holding, I would expect 3x to often go -2. Let's say there will be 17 trumps (there will sometimes be less, usually not more. The long suits certainly will push the total tricks up, but on the other hand we do have scattered values and no singleton. If there's 17 tricks it rates to be right to defend, and it will also be right to defend if there are more, but we're making 11 or 12 tricks in hearts (we're never bidding a slam). Occasionally with 18 tricks it will be -1 when we were making 4, that will be bad.

 

(At MP) If the other pairs don't get a 3 preempt they will rightside 4 and this could easily be worth a trick. If we're already behind it makes sense to gamble.

 

If partner pulls the double to 4m, obviously we'll bid 4. To me this doesn't show a slam try, just a flexible hand with 5 hearts and another place to play. Odds are partner won't pull this (3 hearts is not unlikely after the pull of the double, and Qx and maybe some other doubletons will probably sit as well). Obviously if he does pull it's bad, but maybe we survive in 5.

 

Once in a blue moon partner will pull to 4 and we'll have rightsided (probably).

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