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What's your call?


olien

  

25 members have voted

  1. 1. What is your call?

    • Pass
      7
    • Double
      8
    • 4NT
      1
    • 5H
      9


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I don't really think that either 5 or 4 is making, so I will double.

 

This seems like a tougher problem at IMP scoring actually, where it might pay to bid 5 because the size of the loss for turning a small plus into a small minus is small, whereas the size of the win on a potential double-game-swing is huge.

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I don't see why 5 shouldn't be making anyway. Partner's allowed to have an outside ace.

But then you would lose A instead?, seems like 5 will be off 3 aces no matter wich ones, and possibly a second spade trick.

 

If partner has a 7-4 with a minor wich is kinda likelly opponents are making 4 probably, so 5 can be right even non making.

 

All of this depends on how insane partner is in third position, if he already pushed opponents to an unsafe level it would be stupid to bid again to -500. Witha sound partner I'd bid 5 but I know a couple of players with whom I'd just pass

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He's allowed to have no heart losers, a stiff spade, and a minor ace. But I don't think it's that likely. I expect quite a lot more than half the time either both contracts are down or they make and we go for 500. I don't know which so I would just pass. Maybe I'll get a top playing 1NT on the next hand to get back to 65% average over the two boards :P
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I cannot understand pass since partner is RED opposite a passed hand. Whats this 4H bid lookin like that isnt getting to 10 tricks?

 

I would nearly guarentee partner has 0 or 1 spade and solid hearts. With the A's we're missing onside wont we be makin 4 or 5, and them be cold for 4S also? Or is p is a bit stronger with not necessarily the supreme heart suit we're gonna get lots on defense. I think the pt. is that Partner needs to be stronger for 4H than RHO needs to be for 4S.

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Pass for me. A red vs white preempt is supposed to be pure. Partner has a very nice eight card heart suit and little else. I know that 5 won't make since we're off three aces. Nothing tells me that 4 will go down. Nothing tells me whether it will make. I will leave the last guess for the opponents.

 

Rik

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Saying that we have 11 hearts while at the same time calling KQTx and KQT in the minors no tricks against their spade fit which we have 3 of... I have no words for that.

 

What is the shape around the table? Maybe RHO is 7006, and LHO is 3271 (with diamonds too weak to preempt), and clubs are 3-3 so they only need to ruff 2 clubs to set them up. That was pretty hard to come up with actually!

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My first reaction was instapass.

 

We're likely down 1 or 2 in hearts, and if partner has 1 defensive trick and my minors cough up 2 tricks, they're likely making 4S. Double is better only when they go down - which is possible but I am not convinced it is 50% -- and 5H is only right when they make and we're down only 1, or when we make -- which I don't think is anywhere remotely close to 50%.

 

That's kind of an odd setup, really.

 

5H and 4S both make: 5H > pass > double.

4S makes, we are down 1: 5H > pass > double

4S makes, we are down 2: pass > 5H > double

4S makes, we are down 3: pass > double > 5H

4S fails, we are down: double > pass > 5H

 

If you are shooting for a top, 5H has a plurality. If you are avoiding a bottom, pass is the standout.

 

It's going to depend a lot on your preempting style. But you need hyper-soundness, not just classical preempting, to make 5H make more than half the time, and you need a fair bit of defense from partner to make doubling right more than half the time.

 

On reflection I still think it's a pretty clear matchpoint pass. (Though you can construct partners and fields that make each of the 3 actions right.) Most fields I've ever seen, there is no such thing as a unanimous 1st or 2nd seat 4H opening -- invariably a third of them will prefer 3H or a third of them will prefer 1H. At those other tables there's a lower-level decision going on, which IMO makes 5H an even worse bid, because even when it's a good sacrifice it will be down one more than people in 4H and won't be a good sacrifice against 3S.

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Saying that we have 11 hearts while at the same time calling KQTx and KQT in the minors no tricks against their spade fit which we have 3 of... I have no words for that.

 

What is the shape around the table? Maybe RHO is 7006, and LHO is 3271 (with diamonds too weak to preempt), and clubs are 3-3 so they only need to ruff 2 clubs to set them up. That was pretty hard to come up with actually!

 

zero quick tricks better?, we will likelly make 1 trick, unsurprisingly even 2, but it takes 4 tricks to defeat 4, 5 tricks to get 300. Playing opponents to have a nearly mirror 5134 doesn't work in my experience.

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Ugh bridge is hard. My first instinct was to bid 5 banking on one of the two contracts (and maybe them failing to double sometimes when 5 is

-2) making or them bidding 5. 5 could even be 1100 though (xxx KQT9xxxx x x looks like a reasonable 3rd seat 4 to me), and surely they won't miss the double in that case. I think I would want to be at the table for this problem - partner's style and the opponents' tendencies are pretty important. Assuming partner is sane I think I would still bid 5 and hope for something good to be happening. At least I have 3 ways to win (one shot at each contract making, plus them bidding 5).

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zero quick tricks better?, we will likelly make 1 trick, unsurprisingly even 2, but it takes 4 tricks to defeat 4, 5 tricks to get 300. Playing opponents to have a nearly mirror 5134 doesn't work in my experience.

 

The opps don't have to have 10 spades you know! One guy overcalled 4S, and one guy has not shown (or denied) support. It just seemed like you were being disingenuous to make your point when you say we have no tricks, obviously when we have this many hearts and are leading a trump our minor suits rate to take tricks. If you really think they must have 10 spades and we have 11 hearts, you should obviously bid 5H since we are almost cold and it might be a double game swing! Passing is just absurdly underrating the value of our minor suit holdings on defense, as is calling our hand zero tricks. I would guess that we are very likely to have 3 tricks, and partner bid 4H red/white opposite a passed hand. He easily might have a minor suit ace, and does not show 8 hearts necessarily by opening 4H.

 

FWIW I like 5H I just think passing is nuts.

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Once I decide to not pass I have to realize this might not be my last decision.

assuming we are using the superior podi/pori (vs dopi ropi) I would now bid

 

4N.

 

There is no guarantee that pushing to 5h is correct but getting an aces response from partner will leave me much better placed concerning what to do over 5s. Bidding 5h now

is just plain not as effective as 4n.

 

I would rate 4n=10 5h=6 pass=5 x=3

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