Play 3NT

[Hanoi5]

[hv=pc=n&w=saj4hq9852dq6ck94&e=sqt3hk7da8752caq5&d=s&v=e&b=3&a=p1hp2dp2np3nppp]266|200[/hv]

 

MP's, you receive a ♠2 lead to the 8 and your Jack, what now?

[pooltuna]

[hv=pc=n&w=saj4hq9852dq6ck94&e=sqt3hk7da8752caq5&d=s&v=e&b=3&a=p1hp2dp2np3nppp]266|200[/hv]

 

MP's, you receive a ♠2 lead to the 8 and your Jack, what now?

gut is to lead a ♣ to dummy and lead a ♦ towards the Q

[ceeb]

If you play on ♦ -- seems a better chance for the contract than ♥ -- it would clearly be advantageous (e.g. South has xxx,A10x,KJ10x,xxx) to play high from dummy at trick 1.

 

However, since the contract is absolutely normal and the game is matchpoints, playing on ♥ seems justified on the grounds that it maximizes the expected number of tricks.

[l milne]

Play the queen of spades at trick one! Then a diamond off dummy.

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&w=saj4hq9852dq6ck94&e=sqt3hk7da8752caq5&d=s&v=e&b=3&a=p1hp2dp2np3nppp]266|200|MP's, you receive a ♠2 lead to the 8 and your Jack, what now?

[/hv]

Agree with Ceeb that you should try to win the opening ♠ lead in dummy. Then I guess to to run the ♥7, hoping to make 2♠, 3♥, 1♦, and 3♣

[gszeszycki]

win first tick in hand with J and lead low toward the heart K then back toward the heart Q.

 

this lop succeeds whenever hearts break 33 18 out of 30 cases when hearts break 42

winning trick 1 in dummy and trying to run 7 wins 16 of 30 when hearts break 42

 

Leading toward K and back to Q has around 64% chance of success vs 61% winning trick one in dummy and leading the 7 for finesse.

 

Winning trick 1 in dummy and leading toward dia Q is an illusion. This lop gives up

1 dia 1 hea and 2 spa but works only when dia are 33. Even if you score 4 dia tricks

if only goes with 3 clubs and 2 spades for 9 so at imps leading toward dia Q is

no better than A5432 oppsite 67. 36% LOP

[dake50]

As others suggest, winning SJ not SQ in dummy,

what lesser play from here?

 

Hope H:3+3, repeat SQ finesse for overtrick.

[gnasher]

The advantage of running ♥7 is that you will make an extra overtrick when South plays low from something like xxx A10x Kxx xxxx. Should South play ♥10 on the first round from that? I suppose he should, but I bet most players wouldn't.

[ceeb]

The advantage of running ♥7 is that you will make an extra overtrick when South plays low from something like xxx A10x Kxx xxxx.

It's an interesting card combination but on this particular hand I don't see how declarer can establish 10 tricks without creating 4 for the defense. For example even if North wins the ♥J and exits with a ♦, there's still time for the defense to score its ♠ trick.