mich-b Posted December 26, 2010 Report Share Posted December 26, 2010 [hv=pc=n&w=sq98h743djt8764ct&d=n&v=b&b=13&a=p2np3cp3dp]133|200|2NT = 20-22<br>3C = Puppet Stayman<br>3D = 1 or both 4 card majors[/hv] Pass or 3NT?Can anyone run a simulation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted December 26, 2010 Report Share Posted December 26, 2010 I think pass is right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 26, 2010 Report Share Posted December 26, 2010 Pass. Be glad you are playing puppet. Also interested in a sim also - (include 19's with a good minor please) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nige1 Posted December 26, 2010 Report Share Posted December 26, 2010 [hv=pc=n&w=sq98h743djt8764ct&d=n&v=b b=13&a=p2np3cp3dp]133|200|2NT = 20-223C = Puppet Stayman3D = 1 or both 4 card majors[/hv]Pass or 3NT? Can anyone run a simulation? IMO _P = 10, 3N (or whatever) = 9.Vulnerable, at teams, it's close but going on is betting on a diamond fit. When that hope fails, 3N is likely to fail by several tricks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bbradley62 Posted December 26, 2010 Report Share Posted December 26, 2010 IMO _P = 10, 3N (or whatever) = 9.Vulnerable, at teams, it's close but going on is betting on a diamond fit. When that hope fails, 3N is likely to fail by several tricks.So, both passing and bidding are excellent (9+) choices? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanoi5 Posted December 26, 2010 Report Share Posted December 26, 2010 Apparently Pass is better. Running a simulation with your constraints (opener has 20 to 22 HCP's and at least a 4-card major) there's a 27% chance of game in NT. I had run a simulation with my own agreements (opener could have 20-21 and maybe 4 spades, not 5, but surely not 5 or 4 hearts); in that case the percentage was 25% for 3NT. If you want to risk game 5D seems better (33%). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nige1 Posted December 27, 2010 Report Share Posted December 27, 2010 MO _P = 10, 3N (or whatever) = 9.Vulnerable, at teams, it's close but going on is betting on a diamond fit. When that hope fails, 3N is likely to fail by several tricks. So, both passing and bidding are excellent (9+) choices? Yes my guess was that Pass is best (hence it gets 10). I estimated 3N to be close behind. Bbradley obviously thinks I'm wrong in thinking they are close and Hanoi5's simulation seems to reinforce that conclusion. On reflection I think you should also consider investigating the possibility of a Moysian fit i.e _P =10, 4 whatever = 9, Settle for 3N = 8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siegmund Posted December 28, 2010 Report Share Posted December 28, 2010 Pass and not close sounds right to me. What if you're not playing Puppet? That makes a REALLY interesting question. Over 1NT with a weak 3-3-6-1 Stayman is still a really big winner; I wouldn't be surprised if this is the right time for a 4-3 fit even over 2NT. I'd gamble on it (and apparently land in 3M on the actual cards.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted December 28, 2010 Report Share Posted December 28, 2010 Didn't run any sim, but pass seems quite clear to me. When the long suit is wimpish, steer away from NT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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