What is the expert standard lead

[paulg]

You are on lead after the opponent's have bid 1NT-3NT holding ♥A109742.

 

What do you think is the standard lead for an expert playing fourth-best leads from good suits and second-highest from bad suits?

 

I know this seems pretty simple but a friend was surprised that his private soundings did not get a consensus, so wanted a wider poll. For the record on the actual hand it made no difference which card you selected.

[Phil]

Probably the 10 but I'd like to see a sim. I also think the rest of your hand matters, as I am curious why this hand didn't bid hearts.

 

By the way, I'd add the A to your poll. I doubt its right, but it seems at least as good as some of your other choices.

[wank]

i think the key holdings are

 

1) Jxx QX Kx around the table. Then you've got to lead the 10 to stop partner ditching the queen on air. this will leave the suit blocked though so you'll need 2 outside entries id declarer can and does attack the right suit first.

 

2) x Kx QJ8x here you need to lead low so you can clear the suit on the 2nd round. this only requires one outside entry to get in and cash the suit.

 

so more entries = more reason to lead the 10. also less likely RHO is to have 4 more reason to the honour obviously

[mtvesuvius]

Without any outside entries I'd probably lead the 7, with at least 1 outside entry, I lead the Ten.

[JLOGIC]

Experts generally look at the rest of their hand and the auction and the form of scoring before making a decision.

[paulg]

Experts generally look at the rest of their hand and the auction and the form of scoring before making a decision.

Sure. I was trying not to give hands because I wanted the 'standard' lead if you had decided to lead this suit, purely because that was the situation apparently under discussion.

 

Assume it is imps. I imagine something like:

 

[hv=pc=n&w=s742hat9742dq5ct6&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1np3nppp]133|200[/hv]

[JLOGIC]

Sure. I was trying not to give hands because I wanted the 'standard' lead if you had decided to lead this suit, purely because that was the situation apparently under discussion.

 

Assume it is imps. I imagine something like:

 

[hv=pc=n&w=s742hat9742dq5ct6&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1np3nppp]133|200[/hv]

 

I would lead low in this situation and consider it a wtp.

 

ETA: By low I mean not the T or 9. If I played 4th I'd lead the 7.

[mikeh]

I think it is generally considered sound to lead 4th best (or such other low card as methods dictate) from these holdings unless the auction tells you that neither opp can hold as many as 4 in the suit. On the posted auction, you don't have that assurance so 4th best seems clear, as justin said.

[Stony100]

Lead the 9 if it shows 0 or 2 higher.

[dake50]

Takes a lot to persuade off 4th best.

Don't see a lot.

[Siegmund]

sorry about duplicate post.

[Siegmund]

A generic sim of leads against 1N-3N that I did some time ago shows the the ten slightly better than the x from AT9x and AT9xx, no significant difference for AT9xxx. In all 3 cases the ace was significantly worse. (In a million 1N-3N deals, AT9xxx in a major came up 765 times; T, x, and A gave up 0.42, 0.44, and 0.55 tricks, or 1.14, 1.20, and 1.49 NV imps, against double-dummy par.)

 

Beware that such a sim of leads against 1N-3N will also show (for instance) Q from QJxx as a huge winner over x-from-QJxx, which is one of those things that is more true in a sim (where we compare "blind lead followed by double-dummy play thereafter" with "100% double-dummy play") than in real life - for instance when declarer has like KT8 opposite Axx a double-dummy certainty of 3 tricks against either lead but in practice a guess usually gotten wrong against the x lead. As such, when the sim reports T and x almost equal here, I wouldnt be at all surprised if there are real-life situations that make x better than T.

[barryallen]

I think it is generally considered sound to lead 4th best (or such other low card as methods dictate) from these holdings unless the auction tells you that neither opp can hold as many as 4 in the suit. On the posted auction, you don't have that assurance so 4th best seems clear, as justin said.

 

I am struggling with the logic of leading 4th best here. The lead of the 10 or 9 (depending upon your system) has the ability to reduce the tricks the opponents may take in the suit, without diminishing your chances of running the suit. The only down side to this is dummy having 4 hearts including the 8, but having 6 hearts headed by the A,10,9,7 gives very good options as you only need the 8 in one of the shorter stacked hands. Plus dummy had the option of using stayman with 4 hearts, which was not deployed.

 

It's difficult to see the ♦Q providing an entry and the suit looks blocked unless partner has 3 cards in the suit. The lead of the ♥10 immediately tells your partner of your desire to limit the tricks declarer can take in this suit, giving him no problems with any holding he may have?

[TwstofLime]

No reason not to lead the 10. The declarer is hopefully more disadvantaged than by a 4th down lead. Good poll, Paul! Will enjoy the results.

[whereagles]

The book lead is the 10, but the book doesn't normally bother with the nr of cards in the suit.

 

In any case don't see any reason not to lead the 10, but 4th best seems fine to me too. In fact, anything is fine, except the ace... lol.