4 clubs in your face

[icearif]

Imps - none vulnerable

 

You have

 

♠KQJ

♥AK763

♦J93

♣J8

 

RHO opens 4C and it's your turn...

[Hanoi5]

Double seems to cover all possibilities. Partner can pass or bid his suit, the only trouble arises when he has 4♠ and 3♥ and we belong in hearts.

[mtvesuvius]

I'd double, the good spade holding makes it better to leave spades in the picture IMO. As Hanoi said, when partner has 4♠ and 3♥, we'll be badly placed, however in the long run I think that X will work more often. Also, it is very possible our best spot is 4♣ X. Either way, I don't think pass is an option, either X or 4♥. I think I'll run a simulation (giving RHO 8+♣), and see what comes up. Any other suggestions for an addition to the simulation?

[gwnn]

hi, welcome to the forums :)

 

I would double for the reasons mentioned by vesuvius. partner should pass the double often with balanced hands and when he does they rate to go down. 4♥ is a little too much for me on only AKxxx and 332. I see the merits of pass but why pass when you can do something else?

[icearif]

hi, welcome to the forums :)

 

Thx Csaba, I see you have 7.547 post and now I have 1 :-)

[mtvesuvius]

So I ran a quick simulation, and it looks like X still is the winner. As we stated, when partner has <5 HCP or 4♠ and 3♥, bad things happen. There were a lot of hands where 4M makes or 4♣ is down a few when partner could not reopen.

[kenrexford]

I wonder sometimes with questions like this whether the real problem at times is what to do as Advancer. Too often, the assumption as to how to proceed is based on a pure 4441 takeout, when high interference reduces the reliability of the same.

[the hog]

Very obvious pass, especially with only 3S. Take away a club and add a spade and I would double.

[MarkDean]

I would double - but pass is a close second choice. I do not like 4♥ with that suit and partner likely to bid hearts with equal lengths in the majors.

[ggwhiz]

Count me in for double.

 

rho has big time shape and usually, so does everybody else. I am worried about pard having 6 spades to the left and zero or 1 heart much more than having 4 spades and 3 hearts. Keeping pards pass in play too as nobody I know ever opened 4 clubs expecting to make it.

[mike777]

Imps - none vulnerable

 

You have

 

♠KQJ

♥AK763

♦J93

♣J8

 

RHO opens 4C and it's your turn...

 

 

pass no problemyet

[whereagles]

Do I have to bid now? The answer isn't clear. I would say "yes" and double, but pass could easily be the winner.

[mr1303]

Pass this one. I need more than a random 8 count to be able to make something here.

[Rossoneri]

Not liking it and it's close, but I double.

[fromageGB]

Simulations may prove me wrong, but it looks like the average partner will have a 4342 shape and a 12 count. Do I want him to bid 4♠? No way. Not even close.

 

PASS

[Free]

Dbl: we have values, reasonable shape, and perhaps we won't get another chance to show our hand. If you pass and partner Doubles, we may well have slam, but the 5-level may be too high as well, so are we that much better off when we pass now?

 

Sometimes preempts work, this may be one of these cases. I don't have strong feelings about Dbl or pass, either action can turn into a disaster and either action can work out great.

[Fluffy]

I though it would be 80%+ for double, surprised about the results

[ggwhiz]

I though it would be 80%+ for double, surprised about the results

 

Me too. I think I want a money game against the passers.

[the hog]

Me too. I think I want a money game against the passers.

 

I want a money game against the bidders.

[Free]

Me too. I think I want a money game against the passers.

I want a money game against the bidders.

I want to kibitz that money game :D

[whereagles]

Does this have a "solution"? :)

[Fluffy]

Does this have a "solution"? :)

I will partner ggwhiz, all we need is someone who partner's Ron and we have a game :D.

 

Total points, 1 cent a point for example?, my economy could afford a bit more, but not much.

[whereagles]

So I ran a quick simulation, and it looks like X still is the winner. As we stated, when partner has <5 HCP or 4♠ and 3♥, bad things happen. There were a lot of hands where 4M makes or 4♣ is down a few when partner could not reopen.

 

I was curious and decided to make my own simulation (used BBO's Dealer script) and got this for pard's and LHO hands:

 

9.99751 average hcp

1.58276 average hcp in clubs (i.e. wastage)

3.79912 average nr of spades

3.46570 average nr of hearts

3.86894 average nr of diamonds

1.86624 average nr of clubs

0.39910 percentage of times pard has heart Q

 

3.46362 average nr of spades in LHO

3.79980 average nr of hearts in LHO

 

Generated 10000000 hands

Produced 84337 hands

 

Taking these statistics very literally, I would say pard's hand rates to be something like a 4342 hand with around 9-11 hcp. The conclusions I draw from pard's expectancy are

 

- Game is likely on paper. In practice, it is thin and may be facing some bad breaks.

- Double is likely to put you into a spade contract when hearts seem to be a bit better.

- Pass by pard to double will probably only work well if opps have no game on.

 

Seems to be a very, very close choice between pass, dbl and 4♥.

 

Pass: will work ok if there's no game on and will be fine if pard is inspired to reopen on a 10-count.

4♥: most likely game. May very well not make, though.

Dbl: fine if pard passes and we have no game on or if he bids hearts. Disaster otherwise.

 

Perhaps dbl is the riskiest action, as it's kind of a top-or-zero bid. In light of the evidence, I would probably bid 4♥ (instead of my previous dbl).

[Fluffy]

LHO has more hearts on average than hearts? you seem to have those percetages switched nuno. Obviously partner and LHO have the same average hand.

[whereagles]

yeah, I must have had the source file swapped.