6 Spades doubled

[Hanoi5]

[hv=pc=n&s=skj983h6dkqj9532c&n=saqt72hjt83dck865]133|200[/hv]

 

I took this hand from the Inaugural Two Worlds Trophy in 1994 as reported by E. Kokish for the now defunct IPBM and gave it to some students. A pair got to six spades and was doubled. They received a heart lead and continuation. There is no mention of how the play went then and there for the 'important' thing was how to get to 6 (only Cohen-Zia got to the slam).

 

My first thought was that a ruffing finesse was the best line, but then I noticed you can ruff 2 small diamonds in dummy while drawing a trump to check how they behave (2-1), get back to hand while drawing the final trump and then playing the ♦K, which in this case brings out the ♦A and you make your slam. However, how should you play if the third diamond from West is the 10? Is it better to finesse or to try to drop the Ace in East? Does the double lead you in any way? How do probabilities work at this point where diamonds are either 3-3 or 4-2 and neither the Ace or ten were doubleton with East?

[han]

As you didn't say who doubled nor what hearts were played in the first two tricks, it is hard to answer your question. The form of scoring also matters, if you try to drop the ace and you are wrong, you will be down much more. This is probably irrelevant at MPs while it would be an important factor at IMPs, as you will be down a lot when you lose control.

 

Without any information to go on Axxx with west is less likely than Axx with east, but only slightly less likely (as any given 4-2 split is slightly less likely than any given 3-3 split). Knowing the heart and spade count would give you a better idea.

 

West playing the diamond 10 on the second round is so irrelevant that I suspect you meant to write that east played the 10. This is still irrelevant unless you play against very poor opponents.

[Hanoi5]

I thought no one would answer :(

 

East was the one who doubled the final contract (no other bidding by them as South opened first hand with one spade and South showed a splinter via 3♥).

 

Zia opened the hand with 1♦, Cohen responded 1♠ and East doubled that. They reached 6♠ which wasn't doubled.

 

I meant (and said) what if West plays the ♦10 on the third diamond, not the second.

 

East won the heart King and continued with the Ace.

 

Team scoring it was.