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another percentage question


Fluffy

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[hv=pc=n&s=sakj9haj94da62c73&n=sq42hkt52dqj94cak&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=1dp1hp3hp4cp4hp6hppp]266|200[/hv]

You don't bid the hand very straightforward, but you land in 6

 

5 is led and RHO will play 10 or 6 depending on your pick from dummy.

 

If it matters you can assume opponents are unable to duck K

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Q, Q.

 

1) looses to K, 47.5% finding Q

 

2) it holds, 2 lines :

 

a) finesse Q through west(having played + if confident are 3-3 (additional chance of endplay with Qx in East

 

b ) AK then all black cards

 

3) it is covered, similar as 2)

 

So what is best, a) or b )?

 

a) would win over b ) about 14% if are 4-1 while b ) would win over a) about 13.5% (Qx)

 

Bcs b ) is safer for an endplay, I would choose b )

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Q, Q.

1) looses to K, 47.5% finding Q

2) it holds, 2 lines :

a) finesse Q through west(having played + if confident are 3-3 (additional chance of endplay with Qx in East

b ) AK then all black cards

3) it is covered, similar as 2)

So what is best, a) or b )?

a) would win over b ) about 14% if are 4-1 while b ) would win over a) about 13.5% (Qx)

Bcs b ) is safer for an endplay, I would choose b )

IMO Valardent and Dake50 are right. Q, Q.

If Q loses to lHO's K then you must guess which way to finesse hearts.

If Q is covered or wins, then the two main lines are

  1. Finesse hearts. If you lose a trick then you will have to play off winners to guess whether LHO is more likely to hold Tx or RHO Kx
  2. Cash AK winning against a singleton or doubleton Q. Assume Q doesn't drop but are 3-2. Cash plain suit winners and lead a . If RHO has Q and K, you are home. If LHO has Q and T, you succeed, too.

IMO, both lines are about 65% but the second line is slightly better and more fun.

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